Horsing Around

Keeping an eye on betting strategy

Written by Administrator II

Tuesday, April 7, 2009 12 p.m. EDT

Horses worth watching, a list of runners compiled by handicapper/turf writer Greg Melikov that should improve significantly or do well next time out, won seven times, ran second four times and finished third six times since Feb. 28. These thoroughbreds are worth considering when developing your betting strategy.

AQUEDUCT

Quantifier: Raced four wide more than 10 lengths behind in seventh after a half-mile, drifted six wide entering stretch in fifth, closed strongly to make up more than 3 ¾ lengths and finished second beaten three-quarters of a length at a mile on April 4.

Half Metal Jacket: Raced 7 ½ lengths behind in seventh and last after a half-mile, swung six wide in upper stretch, made up 3 ½ lengths finishing full of run and was second beaten a half-length at six furlongs on March 19; zipped final quarter in 23 1/5. (Pressed pace in second a head behind after a half-mile, took command on far turn, led in stretch by three lengths and drew off under mild urging to win by four lengths at a mile on April 1.)

Heir to the Stone: Stumbled at start, bumped, raced fourth early, advanced to third two lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied turning for home, made up nearly two lengths in stretch and finished second beaten a head at six furlongs on Dec. 14. (Sprinted to lead along rail early, ahead by a length after a half-mile, came out a bit in mid-stretch and won by 1 ¼ lengths under right-handed encouragement at six furlongs on March 7.)

BEULAH PARK

Dash Rendar: Raced second early, dropped to third three lengths behind after a half-mile, lost ground entering stretch, closed well late to make up five lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at six furlongs on March 20 at Turfway Park. (Steadied while fifth and last along backstretch, trailed by more than six lengths after a half-mile, advanced to fourth in stretch and gained third by a nose at six furlongs on April 4.)

CHARLES TOWN

Farleyshelonwheels: Raced more than seven lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, swung wide in upper stretch, rallied from fourth to make up nearly 4 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a neck at seven furlongs on March 18 at Laurel Park; ran final three furlongs in 36 1/5. (Raced more than 3 ½ lengths behind in seventh after a half-mile, advanced very wide to sixth in stretch and finished strongly to gain third by three-quarters of a length at seven furlongs on April 5.)

GULFSTREAM PARK

Pit Alley: Broke seventh and last, advanced to fifth 8 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied three wide in stretch to make up 3 ¼ lengths and finished willingly to gain third by a head at a mile on the turf April 2.

Prime Delivery: Raced ninth and last more than 11 lengths behind after a half-mile, came into stretch three wide, rallied from eighth to make up more than 4 ¾ lengths and finished third by a length at 1 1/16 miles on the turf Feb. 5.

HAWTHORNE

Born Supreme: Pressed pace in third less than three-quarters of a length behind after a half-mile, lost several lengths dropping to fourth in stretch, came again to make up nearly 3 ½ lengths and finished third beaten a neck and a half-length at six furlongs on a sloppy surface March 29.

Roaring Rex: Raced sixth and last more than 6 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied from fifth in stretch after angling out at the sixteenth pole, made up three lengths and finished third beaten two necks at a mile and 70 yards on March 15. (Raced six lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, swung five wide into stretch to second a couple lengths behind and closed fast under firm handling to win by 1 ¾ lengths at 1 1/16 miles on March 2.)

KEENELAND

Smart Bid: Stalked pace inside 2 ½ lengths behind in third after a half-mile, shifted outside between rivals for the drive, made up nearly two lengths in stretch and finished second beaten a neck at 1 1/16 miles on the turf April 3.

LAUREL

Gaffney’s Grits: Raced sixth early hugging rail, dropped to eighth more than eight lengths behind after three-eighths of a mile, advanced to fourth in stretch, rallied to make up 5 ¾ lengths and finished second beaten three-quarters of a length at 5 ½ furlongs on a good turf course April 1.

Jane’s Kid: Raced sixth more than 5 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, swung six wide entering the lane, rallied gamely to make up more than three lengths in stretch and finished second beaten a nose at about 1 1/16 miles on March 6.

Seventh Street: Reared at break, rider lost iron briefly, raced seventh and last more than 11 lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied from fourth to make up 4 ¼ lengths in stretch and gained second by 1 ¾ lengths at seven furlongs on Feb. 14; ran final three furlongs in 35 1/5.

OAKLAWN PARK

Wicken: Broke eighth and last, raced 6 ½ lengths behind in seventh after a half-mile, dropped to eighth at six-furlong marker, advanced five wide to fifth in stretch, rallied belatedly to make up nearly 3 ½ lengths and finished third beaten a head and a neck at 1 1/16 miles on April 1.

Bar Babe: Raced three lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, came four wide into stretch, made up 2 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a neck at six furlongs on March 15. (Raced six lengths behind in third after a half-mile, rallied to second in stretch, but couldn’t catch winner while proving second best by 4 ¾ lengths at six furlongs on April 3.)

Justa Streak: Pressed pace in third more than a length behind after a half-mile, grabbed lead by 3 ½ lengths in stretch and cruised to a 6 ¾-length victory ridden out at six furlongs on March 5; ran final quarter in 24 4/5. (Raced more than 4 ½ lengths behind in seventh after a half-mile, came three wide into stretch and rallied from sixth to gain third by 1 ¾ lengths at six furlongs on March 19.)

Northern Vow: Raced more than 10 lengths behind in eighth after a half-mile, came five wide out of turn, rallied down center of track from sixth to make up more than 4 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a neck at six furlongs on Feb. 15; ran final quarter in 23 2/5. (Raced more than seven lengths behind in eighth after a half-mile, came four wide out of the turn and rallied from seventh in stretch to run third at six furlongs on March 25.)

PENN NATIONAL

Novation: Raced seventh early, advanced to second a head behind after a half-mile, chased leader rest of way and finished 2 ¼ lengths behind at 6 ½ furlongs on March 9 at Philadelphia Park. (Raced more than three lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile and rallied in stretch to finish second by 1 ¾ lengths at 5 ½ furlongs on March 20.)

PHILADELPHIA PARK

Conquer the Fear: Steadied near half-mile marker, raced more than two lengths behind in fifth after four furlongs, steadied again near end of backstretch losing a couple of lengths, went outside to find room for the drive, closed fast to make up nearly four lengths in stretch and finished second beaten a head at 6 ½ furlongs on March 31.

Bold Eagle: Broke inward 10^th and last, raced more than 8 ½ lengths behind in eighth after three-eighths of a mile, eased out in mid-stretch, rallied to make up more than 4 ¾ lengths and finished second beaten 1 ¼ lengths at 5 ½ furlongs on March 17. (Raced more than 1 ½ lengths behind in third after a half-mile, gained lead by a head in stretch and drew clear under strong urging to win by 1 ¾ lengths at a mile and 70 yards on March 31.)

Stay Safe: Went right to the lead just off rail, led by two lengths after a half-mile, increased margin to five lengths in stretch and drew off in handy fashion to win by eight lengths going 1:10 3/5 for six furlongs on Feb. 7. (Raced 1 ½ lengths behind on third after a half-mile, grabbed lead in mid-stretch and drew off to win by 2 ¼ lengths ridden out at a mile and 70 yards on March 16.)

True Values: Raced fifth early, moved to fourth four lengths behind after a half-mile, steadied on turn and rallied in stretch to finish second by a length at 6 ½ furlongs on Feb. 10. (Raced 1 ½ lengths behind in third after a half-mile, moved to second in stretch and held that position by 2 ¼ lengths at six furlongs on March 10.)

SANTA ANITA

Headache: Raced more than five lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, dropped to sixth looking for room in mid-stretch, finished well making up more than 2 ¾ lengths and ran second beaten 1 ¼ lengths at 6 ½ furlongs on the turf April 1; ran final 2 ½ furlongs in 28 seconds.

J P Jammer: Raced more than 2 ½ lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, dropped to fifth after six furlongs, awaited room entering the lane, blocked by rivals in upper stretch, shifted out dropping to sixth, rallied past eighth pole to make up 1 ¾ lengths and finished second beaten 1 ¼ lengths at 1 1/16 miles on March 19.

Reba Is Tops: Broke a bit slowly from the eighth and outside post, raced more than seven lengths behind in seventh after a half-mile, came out four wide into stretch, made up more than five lengths and gained second by three-quarters of a length at about six furlongs on the turf March 6; ran the final 2 ½ furlongs in 26 seconds.

Twin Turbo: Broke ninth and last, raced sixth early, dropped to seventh more than 8 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, came out in mid-stretch to make up more than two lengths and finished second beaten a length at 1 1/16 miles on March 6. (Raced 11^th and last more than six lengths behind after a half-mile, swung out for drive, rallied from eighth to make up more than five lengths and gained third by a head at 1 1/16 miles on April 4.)

Haka: Raced sixth early, dropped to seventh more than 4 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, came four wide into stretch and gained more than 2 ¾ lengths to finish second by a neck at a mile on Feb. 7.

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

Perf: Stalked pace in fourth two heads and 1 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, bumped and pushed out into rival dropping to sixth after six furlongs, pushed out two more times by same rival in stretch, rallied from fifth to make up nearly two lengths and finished third by a head at a mile on the turf April 1; advanced to second when runner-up was disqualified to third for interference in stretch.

Foxy Max: Raced more than six lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, blocked entering stretch in fourth, checked on heels of rivals, angled inside, made up two lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at a mile on the turf March 18.

Diligent Won: Raced three lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, angled out at the top of the lane losing ground in third, made up nearly 2 ½ lengths in stretch and finished second beaten a neck at a mile and 40 yards on March 5. (Tracked pace more than a length behind in fifth after a half-mile, angled out four wide on far turn, grabbed lead in stretch and drew off to win by six lengths at 1 1/16 miles on March 20.

Don’t Forget Gil: Broke through gate, raced fifth early, dropped to sixth more than three lengths behind after a half-mile, launched middle move on far turn, swung five wide to fourth in stretch, closed to make up more than 2 ¼ lengths and finished third beaten two necks at a mile and 40 yards on Feb. 14. (Tracked pace in third more than two lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied outside to take lead in stretch, repulsed two challengers and drew off handily to win by four lengths at 1 1/16 miles on March 14.)

Privy Seal: Raced more than three lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, boxed and blocked from far turn to mid-stretch, altered course to find racing room outside and closed fast late to finish second beaten a neck at a mile on the turf Feb. 6.

TURF PARADISE

Broken Image: Bobbled at break, raced more than 6 ½ lengths behind in fifth after three-eighths of a mile, finished willingly rallying from fourth to make up 3 ½ lengths in stretch and ran third beaten a neck and 1 ¼ lengths at 5 ½ furlongs on March 30.

Mike’s Trippin: Broke out, bumped, raced fifth more than three lengths behind after a half-mile and rallied in stretch to gain second by a nose at 6 ½ furlongs on March 15. (Chased pace in second four lengths behind after a half-mile, couldn’t catch winner, but held position by a length at six furlongs on March 31.)

Savvier: Raced 3 ½ lengths behind in third after three-eighths of a mile, closed four wide into the lane making up 2 ½ lengths in stretch and finished second beaten a neck at 5 ½ furlongs on Feb. 16.

TURFWAY PARK

Victory Frolic: Raced more than 8 ½ lengths behind in seventh after a half-mile, circled field eight wide into stretch, closed fast full of run to make up five lengths and gained second by a length at 6 ½ furlongs on Feb. 16. (Raced more than two lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, advanced to third in stretch and failed to rally at a mile on Feb. 28.)

Top 10 Derby; Prep Races breakdown

Written by Administrator II

Posted Wednesday, April 1, 2009, 11:30 a.m. EDT

Greg Melikov’s

Top 10 Derby Contenders

Quality Road: The Virginia-bred colt put in the top performance of the 3-year-old season disposing of Dunkirk in the Florida Derby en route to a 1 ¾-length victory. The son of Elusive Quality ran the best time of 1:47 3/5 for the 1 1/8 miles since Gulfstream Park’s main track was lengthened from a mile to nine furlongs in 2005. Trainer Jimmy Jerkins hopes to duplicate the winning performances of Barbaro in 2006 and Big Brown in ’08 when training up to the Kentucky Derby.

Friesan Fire: If the well-bred son of A. P. Indy runs well in the Blue Grass instead of training up to the big race, he can claim a share of the top spot. Yes, his sweep of the Fair Grounds version of Triple Crown races was the first in 16 years, but a seven-week layoff would be a bit much to overcome. Conditioner Larry Jones will make the call. However, the Louisiana Derby winner probably is at Keeneland for the April 11 prep.

I Want Revenge: If the son of Stephen Got Even he runs as well in the Wood Memorial as he did in the Gotham at Aqueduct, he probably would earn a share of No. 1. He has been working extremely well, breezing five furlongs in 59 4/5 on Sunday after traveling 58 1/5 handily for the same distance a week earlier.

Pioneer of the Nile & The Pamplemousse: The Santa Anita Derby will decide whose Best of the West. Pioneer of the Nile, a son of Empire Maker, comes off a narrow triumph in the San Felipe at 1 1/16 miles while The Pamplemousse cruised to an eight-length win in the Sham at 1 1/8 miles. Both worked handily on March 25 going six furlongs: Pioneer’s time was an impressive 1:11 2/5 compared to Pamplemosse’s 1:13. However, both must repeat their synthetic surface form when they run on dirt for the first time at Churchill Downs.

Old Fashioned: The son of Unbridled’s Song must bounce back from his disappointing second in the Rebel at Oaklawn Park to capture the Arkansas Derby on April 11.

Imperial Council: Another son of Empire Maker whose granddad Thunder Gulch captured the ’95 Derby and Belmont, must run first or second in the Wood Memorial to make bank enough graded stakes earnings to qualify for the Derby after finishing second to I Want Revenge in the Gotham.

Win Willy: The son of ’01 Derby winner Monarchos really surprised in the Rebel and returned $115.60 on the front end. If he repeats in the Arkansas Derby, there’ll be a new buzz horse in Louisville.

Dunkirk: Another son of Unbridled’s Song, the former buzz horse, may not even reach Louisville since he has only $150,000 in graded earnings. He just might have to run in another prep.

Take the Points: Runner-up in the Sham is in the same boat after scoring twice on dirt. The son of Even the Score must finish first or second to bank enough dollars to qualify.

Three Preps Offer Many a Chance to Qualify for Derby

By GREG MELIKOV

Three important Kentucky Derby preps at tracks across the country on Saturday will decide the fate of many 3-year-olds hoping to make the 135^th Run for the Roses.

It’s strictly a money situation. For example, Imperial Council must upset probable odds-on favorite I Want Revenge in the $750,000 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct to guarantee a trip to Louisville. If he finishes second to the son of Stephen Got Even like he did in the Gotham that would only add $150,000 to his $50,000 in graded stakes earnings.

As of now the son of Empire Maker, winner of the 2007 Wood, would tie for 18^th among the Top 20 in graded earnings that make the field on the first Saturday in May.

Imperial Council has been training well at Payson Park. He posted a bullet 48 seconds, sharing the fastest of 24 workouts on Sunday, only his second after the Gotham.

Trainer Shug McGaughey stressed that has been his plan. The deeper surface at the South Florida training facility is designed to get a horse fit without having plenty of works.

“He’s galloping out good and strong over a deeper track,” he told the Daily Racing Form. “I think he’s done everything we want him to do.”

I Want Revenge, who has amassed $324,000, is training equally well since returning to California. On Sunday, he went five furlongs in a brisk 58 4/5 at Hollywood Park. “He went well and everything looks good,” said trainer Jeff Mullins.

Several horses also must snare the $450,000 winner’s share in the Wood to reach Louisville, including Atomic Rain, seventh in the Tampa Bay Derby. He has only $40,000 to his credit, but it’s going to be difficult to whip both top contenders.

Among several other 3-year-olds that need to earn more money is the Tampa Bay Derby winner. If Musket Man runs third in Saturday’s $500,000 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, he adds $55,000 to boost his graded earnings to $255,000.

However, Giant Oak, fourth and fifth in two races at Fair Grounds this year, must visit the winner’s circle to claim $300,000. That’s because second money is worth $100,000 and the son of Giant’s Causeway would end up with $174,256.

Many in the 11-horse field hoping to race at Churchill Downs are in the same boat:

Nowhere to Hide, fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby and Risen Star; Toccet Rocket, third in the John Battaglia Memorial; Free Country, fourth in the Sam B. Davis and ninth in the Louisiana Derby; and Al Khali, who defeated Atomic Rain in a Gulfstream 1 1/8-mile allowance contest.

It’s the widest open of Saturday’s preps, all slated at nine furlongs, which includes the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby that shapes up as a three-horse affair.

The Pamplemousse, who took the Sham, just needs to run third to increase his earnings by $90,000 to $270,000. His main opposition is Pioneer of the Nile, winner of three consecutive stakes, who has banked $743,250.

Probable third choice is multiple stakes winner Chocolate Candy, with $220,000, who hasn’t raced in more than six weeks since taking the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields.

Road to the Roses... Floriday Derby

Written by Administrator II

Thursday, March 26, 2009 7:16 p.m. EDT

Next Up on the Road to the Roses: Florida Derby

By GREG MELIKOV

The Florida Derby has been staged on a sloppy Gulfstream Park surface only three times in its 57-year history.

I saw Bull in the Heather score in 1993 and return a whopping $60.80. Fourth-place finisher Kissin Kris went on to run second in the Belmont Stakes.

Two other winners were favored and captured two Triple Crown events each: Carry Back in ’61, the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and Nashua, ’55, Preakness and Belmont.

I was astonished that the South Florida track’s premier race, worth $250,000 less than the $1 million offered from ’02 through ’07, was staged over a fast track 54 times since ’52. Sky Ship captured the inaugural, paid $24.10 and earned more than 70 percent of the $24,750 purse.

The area is noted for surprise showers, a phenomenon I know well since residing there from ’51 to ’00. Saturday’s forecast: partly cloudy with a high of 84 degrees.

I saw the first of many races in ’57 when Gen. Duke defeated Bold Ruler by 1 ½ lengths and set the stakes record that still stands: 1:46 4/5 for the 1 1/8 miles.

On the eve of the Kentucky Derby, the son of Bull Lea came up lame and was scratched. Gallant Man was on his way to victory at Churchill Downs when Bill Shoemaker misjudged the finish line and Iron Liege won by a nose.

Bold Ruler took the Preakness and Gallant Man captured the Belmont. Gen. Duke later developed the spinal affliction known as wobbles and died.

The weather played havoc last weekend when four contenders in Saturday’s contest planned final works. The top two candidates beat the rain on Saturday at Palm Meadows Training Center, an hour up the highway from Gulfstream.

Impressive allowance race winner Dunkirk, working handily in company of 3-year-old stablemate Affirmatif, posted a bullet 1:00 for five furlongs last Saturday.

“I was looking for something between a minute and 1:01 and got a minute the right way,” trainer Todd Pletcher said. “He finished strong and galloped out well. I couldn't have been more happy with that.”

Quality Road, coming off a Fountain of Youth (FOY) victory on Feb. 28, was timed in 1:25 for seven furlongs later in the morning. “He worked good,” trainer Jimmy Jerkens said. “I got the first half in 48 and change and the last quarter in 23.”

At Gulfstream, FOY third-place finisher Beethoven wasn’t so lucky. But he worked anyway, going five furlongs in a very slow 1:09 4/5 in the slop.

“I wasn’t looking for anything brilliant,” trainer John Ward said. “He had a good work last week and he’s run some of best races after he had not much more than a blowout a week before.”

Track conditions prompted trainer Ken McPeek to put off Theregoesjojo’s final work for 24 hours. However, the main track remained sloppy and the FOY runner-up breezed six furlongs in 1:15 1/5, galloping out seven furlongs in 1:30.

“I don’t normally like to work horses on a muddy track, but this went well,” McPeek said. “He got what he needed and came out of it just fine. He’s all done up and put away.”

Theregoesjjo did defeat Quality Road earlier in the year in a sever-furlong race on Jan. 10 at Gulfstream.

Last Saturday, six miles west of Gulfstream at Calder, starter Sincero drilled five furlongs in a bullet 1:00 1/5 over a fast track. He ran third to Dunkirk in a nine-furlong allowance contest on Feb. 19, both horses’ last outings.

Horses coming off the pace are doing well at 1 1/8 miles. Less than 14 percent of winners in 29 races went wire-to-wire. That bodes well for Dunkirk, who prefers to close, but Quality Road has tactical speed despite usually going to the front.

Take your pick!

Lane's End Stakes Prpe Race

Written by Administrator II

Posted Tuesday, March 17, 2009 4:22 p.m. EDT

Lane’s End Stakes Is a Wide Open Derby Prep

By GREG MELIKOV

The 38^th Lane’s End Stakes is about as wide open a Kentucky Derby prep you’ll see this year.

Five horses captured stakes as a juvenile or sophomore, but two have won only on the grass: Bittel Road, twice last year going 1 1/16 miles at Saratoga and Keeneland, and Jack Spratt, victorious two months ago traveling a mile at Gulfstream.

But Bittel Road failed to hit the board on California synthetic surfaces in his last two outings, finishing fourth to Pioneer of the Nile. Jack Spratt finished second in a maiden race at Turfway last fall, but ran 10^th in Gulfstream’s Fountain of Youth on Feb. 28.

Three others have an advantage over the field, likely to number 10, since they scored on Turfway Park’s Polytrack.

Loch Dubh broke his maiden last year, culminating a three-race winning streak with a two-length victory in the six-furlong Prevue at the Florence, Ky., track. However, the son of Friends Lake on Feb. 16 finished 6 ¼ lengths behind Old Fashioned in the mile Southwest at Oaklawn.

West Side Bernie took Turfway’s Kentucky Cup Juvenile Cup by three widening lengths at 1 1/16 miles last September. Then the son of Bernstein was runner-up to Big Drama in the Delta Jackpot in December and third to Saratoga Sinner on Jan. 31 in the Holy Bull at 1 1/8 miles, Saturday’s distance. Injuries later knocked both winners off the Triple Crown trail.

Parade Clown captured Turfway’s WEBN Stakes by 2 ¾ lengths at a mile on Feb. 7. The colt has won twice and finished second in four times at Turfway since breaking his maiden at 1 1/16 miles on Dec. 8.

The Lane’s End started out as the Spiral Stakes in ’72 when the distance was a mile and the purse was $10,000. Big Dot triumphed.

In ’82, the race becomes the Jim Beam Spiral Stakes, the purse is raised from $50,000 to $150,000 and the distance is increased to 1 1/16 miles. Good N’ Dustry wins.

Six years later, the contest is 1 1/8 miles and Kingpost scores.

During the next decade, four winners score in five Triple Crown events: ’90, Summer Squall, Preakness; ’91, Hansel, Preakness and Belmont; ‘’92, Lil E. Tee, the only KentuckyDerby champ from the race; and ’93, Prairie Bayou, Preakness.

In ’02, a new sponsor takes over and it becomes the Lane’s End. Perfect Drift triumphs.

There’s a batch of name jockeys riding in this year’s $500,000 contest. Edgar Prado, who won the 2008 with Adriano, climbs aboard the Kelly Breen trainee West Side Bernie for the first time. Garrett Gomez, ’07 and ’08 Eclipse Award winner, will ride conditioner Todd Pletcher’s Bittel Road.

Kent Desormeaux will be aboard Bill Mott’s Hold Me Back, making his ’09 debut after finishing a distant fifth in the Remsen lasy November. Desormeaux was aboard the son of Giant’s Causeway when he took a 1 1.16-mile allowance contest at Keeneland in October.

Cornelio Velasquez hopes to end the four-race losing streak of A. P. Cardinal, who his maiden last September. The closest the son of A. P. Indy got to the winner’s circle since then was runner-up to Danger to Society in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Gulfstream in January.

Eibar Coa is Parade Clown’s new jockey, a big upgrade that ought to propel the son of Distorted Humor to the winner’s circle.

Derby fever is starting to build

Written by Administrator II

Posted Wednesday, March 11, 2009... 10:55 a.m. EDT

Prepping for Louisville: Four Races on Tap

By GREG MELIKOV

Winners of Saturday’s four preps on the Road to the Roses have triumphed seven times at Louisville the past three decades.

Thirteen won at least one of 19 Triple Crown events starting with Affirmed in 1978 when the son of Exclusive Native swept all three legs.You might be surprised which preps, all staged at 1 1/16 miles, produced the most successful 3-year-olds on the TC Trail

In addition to Affirmed, Sunday Silence won the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita in ’89, plus the Kentucky Derby and Preakness while Fusaichi Pegasus took the ’00 Derby. After faltering in the ’01 Derby, Point Given won the Preakness and Belmont en route to Horse of the Year honors.

Pioneer of the Nile heads the field in the 74^th running of the $250,000 Grade 2 contest. The son of Empire Maker, who scored in the Belmont, is coming off a half-length victory in the Robert B. Lewis on Feb. 7.

The colt posted a bullet 58 4/5 for five furlongs on Sunday, the best of 85 works.

His challengers include Chocolate Candy, victorious in the El Camino Real and California derbies at Golden Gate Fields.

Six horses that won the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park triumphed in seven Triple Crown events, including Smarty Jones, winner of the Derby and Preakness in ’04.

Old Fashioned, impressive 3 ¼-length winner of the Southwest Stakes on Feb. 16, will be odds-on favorite in the 49^th running of the $300,000 Grade 2 race.

The son of Unbridled’s Song posted a bullet work of 59 second for five furlongs on Sunday, galloping out six furlongs in 1:12. Chalk up another victory for the No. 1 Derby contender.

He faces Southwest runner-up Silver City and Wise Kid, who has visited the Oaklawn winner’s circle twice since trainer Tim Ritchey added blinkers and changed the bit on the son of Lemon Drop Kid.

“I think it was a race where he kind of turned the corner,” a happy Ritchey said.

The 96^th Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds attracted the most competitive field, headed by Friesan Fire, going for the first sweep of the Louisiana Derby series since ’93 by Dixieland Heat. However, the son of Dixieland Band ran 12^th at Louisville.

Grindstone won in ’96 en route to his Kentucky Derby triumph. Risen Star didn’t capture the ’88 Derby, but did prevail in the Preakness and BelmontFriesan Fire followed his 1 ½-length victory in the Lecomte with a two-length triumph in the Risen Star. The son of A.P. Indy, winner of the ’92 Belmont, has been working well and looks like the winner.

The colt will face several challengers in the $600,000 Grade 2 event that includes three he defeated earlier in the year:

Flying Pegasus – Runner-up in the Risen Star is the son of Fusaichi Pegasus. He’s one for three.

Giant Oak – The son of Giant’s Causeway endured a troubled trip, finishing fifth in that race. The maiden missed several days of training in late February because of a mouth injury, either an abscess or a puncture.

Patena: Trainer Rick Dutrow has been working with the son of Seeking Gold through various ailments since December. He ran second in the Lecomte, but won his first two.

The field also includes Papa Clem, runner-up in the Richard B. Lewis after breaking his maiden in his 2-year-old debut, and Terrain, fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and second in the Breeders’ Futurity, making his 3-year-old debut.

Street Sense outgunned Any Given Saturday to win the ’07 Tampa Bay Derby by a nose and went on to capture the 133^rd Kentucky Derby.

The 29^th running of the $300,000 Grade 3 contest features General Quarters, the 3 ½-length victor in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on Feb. 14. Runner-up Sumo and third-place finisher Musket Man are among the challengers.

A pair of runners-up in Gulfstream stakes is shipping to Tampa Bay Downs: Bear’s Rocket in the Holy Bull Jan. 31 and Hello Broadway in the Hutcheson Jan. 30.

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Greg Melikov’s

Top 10 Derby Contenders