TheWinnersForum.com

MAY MARKET MAYHEM

DOW ENJOYS LAST MINUTE SPURT TO ADD 44 POINTS TO 8212

MUNGER CALLS CAP-AND-TRADE “MONSTEROUSLY STUPID” & DEMENTED

LIBERAL HUBRIS IS RUNNING AMUCK IN AMERICA

DREAMS DO COME TRUE – AN UNLIKELY 50-TO-1 LONGSHOT WINS KENTUCKY DERBY!
(click here / scroll down) for my article of MINE THAT BIRD and underdog trainer Chip Woolley

May 3 (Sunday) – The stock market waffled all day Friday, opening a little higher, then going lower, then higher again, then lower, never venturing far from it’s starting point.  With a few minutes left to trade things were pretty much unchanged on the popular averages with a slight positive bias on the internals when an end-of-day push moved the DOW INDUSTRIALS up 44 points in the final 2 minutes, as evidenced by this Friday chart.  Market internals remained firm with a 19-to-11 ratio favoring winning stocks.  OIL was strong gaining $1.50 and GOLD was little changed.

So far, May has an upward bias and the old axiom of Sell in May…. won’t really be calculable until we are well into summer trading.  As the new week begins, the Monday morning reports on Construction Spending and Pending Home Sales will be closely watched as this sector has been battered hard and investors are looking for confirmation of recent indications of economic stabilization.  Stress test results for banks were due out but have been pushed off until Thursday.  I expect the advance in stocks is laboring and remain defensive, though willing to hold selected issues plus a 10-15% position in mining shares.

EARNINGS REPORTS

On Friday, MasterCard(MA: $172.90) shares were cut by over 5% even though they beat estimates as they indicated ’09 revenues will fall short of forecasts.  Simon Property Group(SGP: $47.46) shares slid 8% even though they reported improved profits, because they cut their dividend and lowered outlook.  Earnings season is slowing down – here are a few companies to watch for on Monday - Loews Corp(L), Sprint Nextel(S), Tyson Foods(TSN).

OBAMA REDUCES WALL STREET – UNDER ILLUSION HE CAN MANAGE BUBBLE/BUST CYCLES

Today Celebrity President Obama has made a statement that Wall Street will be playing less of a role in America’s economy in the future.  That is interesting because capital formation has been the prime pump for the engine of progress enabling the greatest achievements by Americans.  The idea that regulations will shrink this sector will handcuff Wall Street’s ability to perform its function to sponsor new ideas with capital.  This is a twisted philosophy that will set the economy and the entrepreneurial spirit of America in a backwards motion.  This ill-bred viewpoint put forth by the Celebrity President goes hand-in-hand with his equally ignorant notion that somehow the economy can be managed to eliminate bubble/bust cycles, which are an inherent by-product of capitalism.  The bubble and bust cycle is a natural sequence underlying capitalism.  Historically, the most extreme periods of financial dislocation, which incorporates a trivial fraction over the full course of time, are the side effects, the by-products and the cost of capitalism.

The focus should remain on the great achievements, the enhancements to living standards and the progress of a civilized society.  To radically undermine the importance of capital formation and market expansion because of a financial event that occurs every 80 years is ludicrous.  Had the geniuses in Washington not tampered with Glass-Steagall in 1999, and doophusalia like Barney Frank who showboat public calls for regulations, actually supported regulatory efforts instead of blocking multiple inquiries made about aggressive lending for housing and the condition of Fannie Mae, much of today’s financial problems would have been far different.

CAP and TRADE – A PERMANENTLY INCREASING ANNUAL TAX on AMERICANS

Cap and Trade is the centerpiece of the Liberal environmental policy proposal which uses punitive economics to reduce carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions.  Numerous studies, including this one from the George C Marshall Institute illustrates that such a policy basically amounts to a permanent tax on the average American household that increases per annum.  It also concludes that this policy imposes a direct negative impact on the economy resulting in significant job losses and a significant increase in energy costs.

Charles Munger is Vice-Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and the right-hand man for star investor Warren Buffet.  In this exclusive interview with him at this weekend’s widely attended shareholder meeting in Omaha, Munger was asked what he thought about the Obama proposal for Cap and Trade.  Munger, a man of few words, said that it would be – “monstrously stupid” and “demented to rush into it” and that it would be a “huge shock to the economy”.  This succinct observation comes from a very smart and thoughtful man of 85 years.

STANDING UP FOR FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM

LIBERAL HUBRIS REACHES BUBBLE PROPORTIONS – LEAHY COMMITS TREASON

There is a new bubble in America today.  It is called LIBERAL HUBRIS.  This hubris is compromising the core values which made our country great.  LIBERAL HUBRIS scoffs at well behaved protestors at impromptu tea parties, yet finds nothing wrong with using taxpayer money to fund the bizarre, hostile and sometimes violent antics of protestors organized by ACORN, Code Pink, MOVE-ON-CONJOB.org and other radical groups who show no respect or tolerance for Freedom of Speech.  They are in violation of the basic Constitutional principals proclaimed by the Founding Fathers.  The principals of FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM are the core values which conceived and achieved Greatness in our United States of America.  The top priority of Liberals has nothing to do with the defense of the United States, the betterment of our people or Liberty, Freedom and the Pursuit of Happiness.  For Liberals, everything is staked to a dysfunctional emotional gratification they seek from destroying those they’ve decided to hate and despise.  That is their #1 mission and it supersedes any interest in the United States of America. 

LIBERAL HUBRIS is running amuck in these here United States of America.  It’s time for rational Americans to insist that taxpayer dollars be stopped from loading the coffers of partisan radical groups that undermine civility and privately execute the dirty work of specific persons and agendas in Washington.

LIBERAL HUBRIS is profoundly displayed by Vermont Senator Patrick Leahy and his continual calls for a commission on policy for extracting information from detainees.  Leahy should be brought up on TREASON charges for compromising the safety of all American citizens to satisfy his myopia for revenge of a policy he disagrees with.  This is evidenced again in his weekend article.  Leahy brashly states that condoning what he calls “torture” puts the men and women who bravely serve in our armed forces at risk.  That is preposterous.  What puts our military personnel at risk are Treasonous actions to release information that provides comfort to our enemies and provides them the upper-hand knowledge with regard to what limitations that United States constrains itself with, when trying to procure valuable intelligence, even if it means uncovering plots to murder thousands of Americans and destroy critically important structures.  Senator Patrick Leahy is a joke and Vermonters need to wake up.

Every American, especially Vermont voters, MUST READ this letter from Andrew McCarthy to Attorney General Holder, declining invitation to participate in the May 4^th meeting (today) of the President’s Task Force on Detention policy.  Vermonters should vote their communist representative out of office.  He is a menace to society and a threat to America’s safety in this dangerous world.

APRIL MARKET MANIA

DOW FALTERS AFTER PUSH HIGHER, ENDS DOWN 17 POINTS TO 8168

OBAMA DEBUTS IN SOUTH PACIFIC – SINGS “SOME ENCHANTED EVENING”

Apr 30 (Thursday) – For the last day of trading in April, the stock market was poised to produce its best monthly gain in 7 years.  Strong moves up in Asia and Europe set the stage for a nice follow through for US markets.  Monthly Initial Jobless Claims could not deter enthusiasm and actually helped as the claims number fell 14K, even though the total number of continuing unemployment rose to another high.  Stocks opened firm and ran right up to the 8300 level, crossed it briefly and then stalled out.  Afterwards the market started gradually losing its steam and the official announcement that Chrysler would file Chapter 11 suppressed any ability for stocks to recover.  By midday the entire rally was gone and the DOW INDUSTRIALS dipped into negative ground.  The final tally produced a small loss of 17 points, but a much more negative day from a psychological standpoint given the nature of the actions.  Key indexes were either side of unchanged and winners were slightly ahead of loser on the NYSE and nearly dead even on the NASDAQ.  GOLD fell $12 an ounce.  OIL barely changed.

Will SELL BEFORE MAY AND GO AWAY work as an investment strategy this year?  Given the tremendous run stocks have had for a solid 2 months, the severe overbought technical condition, the established key overhead resistance zone (8000-8300) and the optimism that has been stimulated by the rising market, we believe our postulation that April has provided an excellent period to sell into strength and reduce equity exposure will be a smart strategy to have executed.  Tomorrow brings a host of new economic data including Consumer Sentiment (Michigan) and Factory Orders.  Stocks may keep trying to push higher but the rally should meet with increasing resistance.  I would expect stocks to end the session lower heading into the weekend.

EARNINGS REPORTS

Earnings were not bad again today.  With expectations so very low company after company has been able to meet or beat the numbers, though some still fall short and most stress the tough forward-looking outlook.  Proctor & Gamble(PG) shares fell even though they beat expectations(earnings call transcript).  Exxon-Mobil(XOM) shares dropped and they came up short on earnings.  Cigna(CI) profits rose, but enrollments fell and reduced their forecast and shares were hit by 5% (earnings call transcript).

On Friday we will get quarterly numbers from Clorox(CLX), Chevron(CVX), MasterCard(MA), Simon Property Group(SPG), and Allergan(AGN).

OBAMA HAD SOME ENCHANTED EVENING

If you are still wondering why the Liberal Slutrag is nearly bankrupt and out of business, look no further than the silly beanbag tossed up by Jeff Zeleny at the Obama Press Conference.  I thought I was watching a review of the musical South Pacific.  Zeleny posed this travesty of a question:

“During these first 100 days, what has surprised you the most about this office, enchanted you the most about serving in this office, humbled you the most and troubled you the most?"

When Obama and the other members of the White House press corps laughed, they weren’t laughing at a joke, they were laughing at Slutrag’s own Zeleny.  If Obama was smooth enough to react without a teleprompter or a pre-written response he could have really proved to the country that he has the talent to match his Celebrity President status.  Instead, Obama pontificated for a few minutes on each of the 4 critical parts to the question: ‘surprised’, ‘enchanted’, ‘humbled’ and ‘troubled’.  When the elite liberal press posses a question worthy of Entertainment Tonight, the answer should be flamboyantly musical, accompanied by an entourage of dancers and a mosh pit orchestra.  A terribly boring and useless press conference utilized mostly to remind his followers why the hell they voted for him could have been elevated to a rousing Broadway extravaganza… if only Barack had replied this way:

Obama: Hmmm, uh, here’s the way I would describe the most enchanted thing about serving the highest office in the land….

SCROLL THE TELEPROMPTER

Some enchanted evening
You may see a stranger,
you may see a stranger
Across a crowded room
And somehow you know,
You know even then
That somewhere you'll see her
Again and again.

Some enchanted evening
Someone may be laughin',
You may hear her laughin'
Across a crowded room
And night after night,
As strange as it seems
The sound of her laughter
Will sing in your dreams.

Who can explain it?
Who can tell you why?
Fools give you reasons,
Wise men never try.

Some enchanted evening
When you find your true love,
When you feel her call you
Across a crowded room,
Then fly to her side,
And make her your own
For all through your life you
May dream all alone.

Once you have found her,
Never let her go.
Once you have found her,
Never let her go!

HONORING AMERICANS

STANDING UP FOR FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM

My Friends:  The principals of FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM are the core values which conceived the Greatness of our United States of America.  The top priority of Liberals has nothing to do with the defense of the United States, the betterment of our people or Liberty, Freedom and the Pursuit of Happiness.  For Liberals, everything is about their emotional gratification from destroying those they’ve decided to hate and despise.  That is their #1 mission and it supersedes any interest in the United States of America.

 Have a Great Weekend!  -  Next Blog Update  ➜  Sunday Evening

APRIL MARKET MANIA

DOW INDUSTRIALS POWER HIGHER BY 168 POINTS TO 8183

LAST CALL TO SELL BEFORE MAY AND GO AWAY

Apr 29 (Wednesday) – Today was somewhat of a barnburner as stock prices opened strong even after the GDP-Q1 report showed the economy contracted by a worse than expected 6.1%.  This helped set a very positive tone.  Once the market shrugged that news aside it was off to the races climbing steadily higher to a 180 point gain.  Then the averages barely budged, marking time, awaiting this announcement from the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.  There was no earth shattering developments and language describing continuing economic weakness wasn’t going to shock anybody.  So stocks held their ground and then rallied further rising to a peak high of up 240 points as short sellers were getting squeezed further.  But try as it might, the market could not accelerate into the final hour and prices weakened in late trading (DOW 1-Day Chart).  Still a 2.1% advance was impressive and the market has pushed up toward the highest levels since the March lows.  There was a solid 6/1 ratio favoring winners on the NSYE Adv/Dec Line.  Most sectors were strong though there were isolated pockets of weakness.  OIL added $1 and GOLD pushed back toward $900 with a $7 gain.  The DOW INDUSTRIALS are now in the middle of the 8000-8300 resistance zone I’ve defined as the obstruction area for the current advance.

With stocks once again tremendously overbought, and the seasonal advantage at its bitter end, the recent rally, in my view, has been a gift of strength to use to sell some holdings into.  Portfolio managers may try to push stocks up tomorrow as part of month end strategies, but I believe the upside will be a struggle and the risk/reward relationship for the stock market is not favorable.  I don’t believe this is an all-out sell everything situation, but rather an opportunity to reconfigure and adjust for risk.  We don’t want to ride everything lower if the market suddenly fails again because the economy isn't recovering as fast as the stock market wants it to.  SELL BEFORE MAY AND GO AWAY - There remains only 1 trading day in April.

EARNINGS REPORTS

After the close VISA(V: $63.51) reported a solid 71% jump in Q1 earnings, beating analyst estimates.  We urged buying Visa when it last dipped below $50 and this is one stock we would actually be willing to hold given our view that it is likely to be a market leader if a new bull market does materialize.  Aetna(AET: $21.88) shares plunged 10% on this Q1 report as medical costs soared.  Waste Management(WMI: $26.94) shares barely changed even though Q1 profits fell by 36%.  Time Warner Cable(TWC: $31.12) shares surged 14% as their Q1 release showed earnings of .48 a share, but of significance, trends for subscribers turned back higher.

Quite a few interesting companies will report results on Thursday including CIGNA(CI), Dow Chemical(DOW), Intl Flavors & Fragrances(IFF), Marathon Oil(MRO), Tyco Intl(TYC), Newell Rubbermaid(NWL) and Newmont Mining(NEM).

HONORING AMERICANS

STANDING UP FOR FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM

My Friends:  The principals of FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM are the core values which conceived the Greatness of our United States of America.  The top priority of Liberals has nothing to do with the defense of the United States, the betterment of our people or Liberty, Freedom and the Pursuit of Happiness.  For Liberals, everything is about their emotional gratification from destroying those they’ve decided to hate and despise.  That is their #1 mission and it supersedes any interest in the United States of America.

Next Blog Update  ➜  Wednesday Evening

APRIL MARKET MANIA

DOW SQUANDERS LATE RALLY LOSING 8 POINTS TO 8016

PELOSI, CLASSLESS HYPOCRITE, NOW FEIGNING MEMORY LOSS

2 DAYS & COUNTING - SELL BEFORE MAY AND GO AWAY

Apr 28 (Tuesday) – More swine flu reports across the world had stocks on the defensive and again prices opened weak.  In Japan, the NIKKEI was lower by 232 points overnight.  Leaks on some stress test results that certain major banks may need to raise more capital also dampened the early mood.  Just like yesterday, our market slipped 80 points immediately, and then gathered itself to push higher and back into positive ground.  Buyers were motivated by the predominance of earnings reports that met or beat expectations, low expectations though they are.  Consumer Confidence came in well above the consensus estimates and triggered more hope of economic recovery.  That stocks were firm and pushing a 60 point gain, only to lose it all in the final 90 minutes is a little ominous.  The Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting continues, plus we’ll get a look at the initial GDP report for Q1.  This will be a market moving number if it falls outside the expected range.  GOLD was hammered all session though it improved from losing over $20 an ounce to lose about $13 on the close.  OIL was down about half a buck as it seems to be hugging the $50 level.

SELL BEFORE MAY AND GO AWAY - There remains only 2 trading days in April.  This is an historical seasonal pattern for stocks that appears to be setting up perfectly for this year as the market has already enjoyed an excellent move.  The technical resistance is flexing its muscle as evidenced by this Dow 1-Year Chart w/Fast Stochastic. 

PORTFOLIO TALK / A stock we recently recommended near $11 and then suggested selling near $16 came out with numbers that looked decent, but shares fell 10% on analyst downgrade, Olin(OLN: $12.96) is once again looking interest especially with their reliable dividend that yields 5.6%.

Some interesting companies will report earnings tomorrow morning including Aetna(AET), Baker Hughes(BHI), Barrick Gold(ABX), Burger King(BKC), Goodyear Tire(GT), Waste Management(WMI), Time Warner(TWX) and Time Warner Cable(TWC).

HONORING AMERICANS

STANDING UP FOR FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM

My Friends:  The principals of FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM are the core values which conceived the Greatness of our United States of America.  The top priority of Liberals has nothing to do with the defense of the United States, the betterment of our people or Liberty, Freedom and the Pursuit of Happiness.  For Liberals, everything is about their emotional gratification from destroying those they’ve decided to hate and despise.  That is their #1 mission and it supersedes any interest in the United States of America.

 PELOSI SUFFERING FROM AMNESIA, HYPOCRISY & NO-CLASS

This article, The Politics of Liberal Amnesia – by Bret Stephens, Wall Street Journal, - reminds all Americans just how soon we forget.  Amazingly, now certain doophusalia in Washington conveniently can’t remember anything!  In the period immediately after 9/11 there was a unified urgency to find ways to protect America against future attacks.  An extensive political process ensued.  Briefings were held regularly with Intelligence Committees.  When asked if the CIA was taking enough measures to insure that everything possible was being done to protect the country, they detailed the interrogation methods.  There were no dissenters, not even from Nancy Pelosi, who would have been right in front of a microphone and camera to politicize the moment if she could have.  Rather, the only questions appeared to be if the CIA was actually doing enough in terms of gathering information.

But now Nancy Pelosi cannot seem to recollect any of this.  Imgaine that!   Even though in 2002 she was in dozens of briefings as ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, she recently spoke out calling for a ‘truth commission’ on interrogation methods to appease George Soros and the sick subscribers of MOVE-ON-CON-JOB.org.  Is Pelosi busy shredding all notes and minutes of the meetings now?  Nancy Pelosi, the most dangerous person in the United States of America, suddenly has amnesia.  I will tell you who doesn’t have amnesia…. the fine citizens of the State of New York.  Yesterday many of them were put through the emotional ringer again as they began to flee down streets and abandon high-rise offices, as they witnessed an eerie sight.  In a government SNAFU, the backup to Air Force One skirted low in the New York skyline accompanied by military jets, causing New Yorkers to run for their lives.  It is such an amazing contrast in character to see how fresh memories are nearly 8 years later in their reactions to a stupid stunt pulled off by the White House.   And wouldn’t you know it, as New Yorkers were again running for their lives, we find Nancy Pelosi grandstanding against America’s response to the horrifying terror attack that killed almost 3,000 American citizens right there in New York City.

Nancy Pelosi exhibits the moral character of a slimy bottom-feeder.  Her memory may not be good when she is plotting political maneuvers, but she may be ushering in the process that becomes her own undoing.  It would be pure justice if her own scheming leads to a public undressing of her lies in hearings that expose her for the menace she is to our country.

Next Blog Update  ➜  Wednesday Evening

APRIL MARKET MANIA

DOW CATCHES SWINE FLU IN FALLING 51 POINTS TO 8025

SELL BEFORE MAY AND GO AWAY - 3 DAYS & COUNTING

Apr 27 (Monday) – The week started off with some weird influences today.  While profit-taking would be expected after the strength finishing last week, overnight concerns across the world about swine flu hurt some markets.  The US markets opened lower but not as dramatic as some had thought, with the INDUSTRIALS down about 80 points.  Buyers stepped right in and all ground was quickly made up as stocks pushed into positive territory where it traded for over an hour.  Then an unannounced fly-by over New York’s Statue of Liberty with Air Force One accompanied by a fighter jet created a little panic to where people actually left their buildings and stocks started drifting lower.  Turns out it was a staged photo shoot that was not advertised and the all-clear was given.  The market improved from its worst levels but still closed lower by 51 points.  Most averages were down less than 1%, although the broadly based NYSE Composite fell 1.44% and its Adv/Dec Ratio was negative by 2.5 to 1.  GOLD and OIL were both lower.  One of the hardest hit groups, not surprisingly were the pork producers Tyson(TSN) and Smithfield Foods(SFD), both off about 10%.  Other weak sectors included energy, REIT’s, media and car rentals.

Tomorrow begins the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which probably won’t have as much impact as it has historically, though inventors will be eager to hear inside views of current economic conditions.  Consumer Confidence has been dropping like a rock and this number, which should show a slight uptick, will be closely watched.  I would expect stocks to again try to rally tomorrow but I’m not getting excited to buy stocks here. 

Earnings reports from Deutsche Bank(DB), Pfizer(PFE), Bristol-Myers Squibb(BMY), Potlatch(PCH), Rockwell Collins(COL), Jacobs Engineering(JEC) and McGraw-Hill(MHP) aren’t likely to move markets unless there is a huge negative surprise, but they will provide a solid cross section into a broad swath of how the economy has been in various sectors.  The market appears to have run into resistance and so the easy gains for the past 6 weeks will be harder to duplicate.  And of course, there’s the “Sell Before May” Countdown.  We’ll keep the message very brief tonight.

SELL BEFORE MAY AND GO AWAY – THE FINAL COUNTDOWN

SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY – This year there may be a slight twist to this old market axiom, my twist is -
SELL BEFORE MAY AND GO AWAY - There remains only 3 trading days in April.  Foretold is forewarned!

HONORING AMERICANS

STANDING UP FOR FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM

My Friends:  The principals of FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM are the core values which conceived the Greatness of our United States of America.  The top priority of Liberals has nothing to do with the defense of the United States, the betterment of our people or Liberty, Freedom and the Pursuit of Happiness.  For Liberals, everything is about their emotional gratification from destroying those they’ve decided to hate and despise.  That is their #1 mission and it supersedes any interest in the United States of America.

Next Blog Update  ➜  Tuesday Evening

APRIL MARKET MANIA

DOW ADDS 119 POINTS TO 8076 – 6 WEEK UP-STREAK HALTED

GOLD JUMPS ANOTHER $9.00 - CONTINUING RECENT STRENGTH

TREASON TRIALS TRUMPS TRUTH COMMISSION – RELEASING CIA MEMOS WAS HUGE MISTAKE

Apr 26 (Sunday) – Friday’s market had an upbeat tone from the start.  Anticipation of details regarding the ‘stress test’ for banks was the background for the trading day.   The information released wasn’t far from expectations and the actual impact of them will not be felt until individual banks are required to disclose them.  Stocks had a knee-jerk sell-off on the news release and regrouped to push to the highs of the session coming into the LAST HOUR.  Sellers emerged before the weekend and the 1.5% gain was still solid.  The DOW INDUSTRIALS made an impressive recovery from the Monday drubbing, though the average was unable to stay its streak of weekly gains.  NASDAQ did manage to produce an up week for the 7^th straight time, and it has been 4 years since that stat appeared.  Winners beat losers 3-to-1.  Nearly all industry sectors were positive with the notable exception of the health insurers which were lower.

The stock market has returned to the 8000-8300 resistance zone, is again overbought and is at the tail end of the favorable market season (Mid-October through April).  There are no major economic reports on Monday.  My risk assessment is that portfolios should become defensive, overweighted in precious metals related investments and at least 20% cash to take advantage if prices fall back in the May/June period as they so often do.

SELL OIL SERVICE STOCKS WHICH HAVE NEARLY DOUBLED IN PRICE!

PORTFOLIO TALK:   Not long ago I recommend some stocks in the oil service sector.  Two have practically doubled in price.  As a prudent money manager I must urge those who purchased Nabors Industries(NBR:$16.16) and Weatherford Intl(WFT:$17.41) to sell those positions.  I know they are very strong stocks right now, but when you have nearly doubled you money in 6 weeks, selling is the prudent thing to do.  I would parse my advice out this way.  If you are uncomfortable with the long-term prospects for stocks, then go ahead and book the entire profit now.  If you believe the market, particularly the OIL sector, has a positive outlook for the next 6 to 18 months, then sell 50% of those holdings and ride the rest on the house’s money.

THE INCREASING POWER OF GOLD

GOLD kept its winning streak live adding another $9.00 an ounce to $913.  We’ve been pointing out for weeks a highly correlated inverse relationship between the metal and the equities market.  Now we are seeing that even when stocks rise, GOLD is able to break the inverse pattern and rise right alongside.  This is a sure sign of underlying strength.  Mining shares were very strong on Friday, going up from 3% to 7%.  The ones I featured late last week performed as follows: SPDR Gold Shares(GLD: $89.72, +1.04%), a direct play on the metal itself, and the specific company shares: Goldcorp(GG: $29.63, +5.15%), Gold Fields(GFI: $11.49, +7.18%) and Iamgold(IAG: $8.58, +7.38%).

SELL BEFORE MAY AND GO AWAY – THE FINAL COUNTDOWN

SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY – This year there may be a slight twist to this old market axiom, my twist is -
SELL BEFORE MAY AND GO AWAY - There remains only 4 trading days in April.  Foretold is forewarned!

STOCKS CLIMB SHARPLY THOUGH THEIR EARNINGS DECLINE

Friday brought several interesting corporate financial reports on:  3m Company(MMM), Ford(F), Schlumberger(SLB) and Stanley Works(SWK).  Shares of Triple-M rose 5% despite having net income fall 47% in their Q1 report.   Ford shares climbed 11% on a Q1 report a narrowing of their losses.  Oil service giant Schlumberger jumped nearly 7% as their earnings fell 30% on weak drilling and Stanley Works shares rocketed up 11% despite reporting a drop in profits and a lowered outlook.  It was a great day for companies to report weak quarterly results as sentiment in the market was positive and expectations remain low.

Earnings season is slowing down, though Monday will fetch reports from Corning(GLW: $15.33), Humana(HUM: $27.36) and Valero(VLO: $21.68.).

HONORING AMERICANS

STANDING UP FOR FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM

My Friends:  The principals of FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM are the core values which conceived the Greatness of our United States of America.  The top priority of Liberals has nothing to do with the defense of the United States, the betterment of our people or Liberty, Freedom and the Pursuit of Happiness.  For Liberals, everything is about their emotional gratification from destroying those they’ve decided to hate and despise.  That is their #1 mission and it supersedes any interest in the United States of America.

IRAQ AS A FUTURE SUCCESS STORY

The liberty and economy of 50 million people in Iraq may go down as one of the most significant positive transitions on a worldwide scale during this century.  Time will tell.  Arguably, 5 million students and laypersons that live to read the next email launched from left-wing political groups to remind them how much they loathe Bush, don’t have the strategic military knowledge to determine the correct timing and strategy for winding down Iraq sagaciously as the Commanders on the ground do.  If the current administration can accomplish something equivalent in scope to the significance of a successful Iraq on a worldwide scale, it would be something to strive for.  If pursuing strategies that weaken our country and open up new vulnerabilities through a perpetual historical blame game is the administration’s priority, history may view as unintelligent, the continual pounding on the past administration that still has in its pocket a potential accomplishment the scale of Iraq, one which may significantly advance the future of democracy in sensitive geo-political regions and positively influence the evolving world.

POLITICAL CHESS MATCH – check: TRUTH COMMISSION – checkmate: TREASON TRIALS

Nancy Pelosi, Patrick Leahy and a host of other narcissistic politicians are calling for a “truth commission’’ on the topic of enhanced interrogation techniques.  Other than a monkey show staged by Democrats, inspired and supported by the irresponsible antics of left-wing radical groups like MOVE-ON-CON-JOB.org, this high wire attempt to reinforce public opinion offers nothing to gain for the United States of America and much to lose in pushing forward on a worthless, expensive and risky exercise.  If this is the new politics, they can skip that process and move directly to the end game: “Treason Trials.”

That would be a heck of a lot more interesting and drills right down to expose those who are quickest to put America at risk for the sake of politics and popularity.  This Op/Ed column – Security Before Politics by former CIA Director Porter Goss circles the perimeter and target shoots the disingenuous foundation underlying these bombastic efforts to undermine American Security Interests for a political gamble.  It’s a high stakes venture by in-power politicians, who appear to be marionettes dangling from the strings of a billionaire.  A ridiculous endeavor since they already won the elections, it only magnifies their behaviorally maladjusted agenda, namely to keep a negative spotlight on the Bush administration.  They have chosen to weaken the defenses of the United States, rather than focus on improving national security and demonstrating concern for the well being of all American citizens as the #1 priority.

Connecting the dots of perpetual political retribution, here’s what the future might hold - hearings for individuals who promoted and authorized the release of sensitive CIA Memo’s providing comfort to our enemies, raising the risk for all Americans.  The Obama Administration, Pelosi, Leahy, Conyers, congresswoman Jackson-Lee, MOVE-ON-CON-JOB.org even add in the 5 million individuals they claim as members.  Round ‘em all up… the Benedict Arnolds of the Modern Era.  Really, where would it all end?  We all wanted to believe Obama when he promised to end the politics of the past.

The legal definition of Treason is: TREASON - This word imports a betraying, treachery, or breach of allegiance.

The Constitution of the United States , Article. III, defines TREASON against the United States to consist only in levying war against them, or in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid or comfort. This offence is punished with death.  By the same article of the Constitution, no person shall be convicted of treason, unless on the testimony of two witnesses to the same overt act, or on confession in open court.

There isn’t even a question that releasing those sensitive internal documents provided aid or comfort to our enemies.  They did.  Supporters of this dastardly action claimed that making this information available would somehow inhibit recruitment techniques of Al Qaeda.  That is a farce.  The opposite is true, as gaining internal knowledge only emboldens and sharpens the focus of our enemies.  History reveals there is usually a price to pay for such grand naivety.  As a nation we’ve already experienced what happens when intelligence gathering capabilities are compromised as they were under Clinton.  Ask George Bush how his day went on September 11, 2001.  Ask family survivors and friends who attended some 2,819 funerals how their days have been for seven and one half years.  Fool us once shame on them, fool us twice, shame on us.

Things are headed toward a major national confrontation with this gratuitous decision from the Obama administration to release CIA documents to appease the far left.  It would be a shame to have all this hope and change melt down in the first 100 days for a selfish political action that has no upside for America, but weakens the defense of our country and results in a rigorous deterioration of America’s intelligence gathering capabilities that were restored to health under the Bush administration.  The intelligence gathering operatives can no longer trust the government and our foreign allies and partners must now hesitate with their involvement and cooperation with us.  Gee, wasn’t Obama going to strengthen our relationships with our foreign allies?  Well, my mama always told me, pay attention to what a man says, but pay closer attention to what he does.  Mama had a keen sense of the human kind.

In Preening and Posturing – Throwing our Guards to the Wolves, William Kristol accurately writes:

In Stop the Scapegoating, David Broder, who disagrees with prior administration policy on interrogation, forcefully states that the Obama administration should not pursue an "unworthy desire for vengeance":

With USA defenses lowered and the enemy growing ever more comfortable with their newfound knowledge, courtesy of the current administration, odds of a successful attack against the United States increase.  Should any reprehensible terror-related event occur, the storm of civic outrage will dwarf those recent railings against AIG bonuses, making that one appear to have been a pre-schooler’s rebellion replete with snack-food throwing and Crayola inspired graffiti.  Will the 5 million supporters of MOVE-ON-CON-JOB.org be held responsible and accountable for Americans killed in terror based attacks by the other 298 million Americans in this country?  How many of those subscribers will covet being viewed by society as enablers of the actions that led to American deaths by the hand of terror?  That’s an identity that will rank more than 35 status notches below an AIG executive and possibly even one or two notches beneath Nancy Pelosi, who has overseen the worst and most unpopular Congress in American history.  It is no coincidence that the stock market was making new all-time highs around 14000, right at the time Pelosi became Speaker of the House, and began crashing shortly thereafter.

Normally, at this point, one would ask the obvious question:  Who is really running the show in Washington?  But there is no need to ask since the answer is obvious:  Obama is showing to be a puppet of left-wing extremist groups including MOVE-ON-CON-JOB.org.  Millions of Americans were convinced that Obama is quite the intellectual, capable of analyzing complex problems, capable of making sound critical decisions and able to push forward in a positive spirit of hope and change.  Intellectual he may be, but with his 100 day wedding gown about to come off, his lack of experience as an executive reveals something key…. Obama’s slip is showing.  He’s already demonstrated a clear priority for his political support-groups first and disturbingly does so at the expense of high priority American interests.  What shareholder would endorse anyone on that wavelength to run a company they owned, let alone the country?  Let us hope the priority changes soon.

Instead of ending the politics of the past, a new standard of blaming prior administrations for political disagreements is unleashed.  Why even waste time with this truth commission nonsense?   Get the Treason Trials going.  To his credit, Obama appears to be backing away from this self-destructive charade, but the Medicine Show Wagon has already pulled out of the garage and is moving down the narrow road inside Congress, a road which undoubtedly will eventually lead directly to Treason Trials.  Chivalry is not dead and to honor the tradition of ladies first, Pelosi should be given the respect of going first.

Next Blog Update  ➜  Monday Evening

APRIL MARKET MANIA

LATE RALLY HELPS STOCK MARKET RECOVER 70 POINTS TO 7957

GOLD RALLIES BACK ABOVE THE $900 LEVEL

MOVE-ON-CON-JOB HAS ANOTHER BAD IDEA / HOW MANY DOOPHUSALIA HAVE SIGNED UP?

Apr 23 (Thursday) – Today was almost the mirror opposite of yesterday’s trading session.  The market bounced around like a yo-yo as it digested a mix of earnings reports, interpreted the Jobless Claims which were not a great number and then evaluated the decline in Existing Home Sales.  There was a meeting held by the White House and credit card companies in an effort to cap rates for late payments and place certain other restrictions on credit card companies.  Visa(V), Mastercard(MA) and American Express(AXP) all rose in price today so whatever occurred didn’t create fear in this sector.  All in all stocks tracked back and forth across the unchanged line until the LAST HOUR, where contrary to yesterday, the market pushed up to the highs of the session.  All major indexes were moderately higher by the close though some parts of technology were weak and the NASDAQ Adv/Dec Ratio was negative.  This back and forth action in stocks is constructive as it helps to work off some of the recently extreme overbought readings from the 6 week rally.  As I’ve been saying recently, it would be constructive for a sideways pattern to develop versus having to endure another period of extended decline and we are now in a critical time frame.  Seasonal patterns are turning negative and the structure of the market patterns indicate a rolling over after a 6 week advance.  Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales will provide two key measures of just how the economy is rolling…or not.

THE POWER OF GOLD

GOLD rallied another $13 today to regain the $904 level.  Very interesting to see that as stocks opened lower the inverse relationship kicked right in and the precious metal got a nice bump.  What may be most revealing is when stocks rallied into the closing bell there was not much selling in GOLD, suggesting that the underpinnings of the metal are strengthening further.  I continue to advise investors to make metals and mining shares a core component of your portfolio.  Some stocks to benefit would include SPDR Gold Shares(GLD: $88.80), a direct play on the metal itself, as well as the following mining stocks, Goldcorp(GG: $28.18), Gold Fields(GFI: $10.72) and Iamgold(IAG: $7.99).

SELL BEFORE MAY AND GO AWAY – THE FINAL COUNTDOWN!

The old adage is – SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY – This year there may be a slight twist to this old market axiom, my twist is -
SELL BEFORE MAY AND GO AWAY - There remains only 5 trading days in April.  Foretold is forewarned!

EARNINGS SEASON CONTINUES

Most earnings reports released today were disappointing.  These numbers from United Parcel Service(UPS: $53.33) were well below par, especially as they are viewed to provide an inside glimpse of real economic activity.   On the bright side, Raytheon (RTN: $44.04) came out with this strong report where they also increased guidance and shares rose over 6% today.  The defense contractors have produced among the strongest results for this reporting period.  Some firms reported soft numbers but their shares went up, such as Microsoft(MSFT: $18.92) who’s stock had a small gain today, until they reported this Q1 report after the market closed, showing a 32% decline in profits, and shares jumped initially on that report.

On Friday there are 4 companies in particular who will be reporting results, to keep a keen eye on:  3m Company(MMM), Ford(F), Schlumberger(SLB) and Stanley Works(SWK).  This group will provide us with a nice sweeping look across the entire economic landscape.

HONORING AMERICANS STANDING UP

FOR FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM

My Friends:  The principals of FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM are the core values which conceived the Greatness of our United States of America.

.

It is crystal clear that the top priority of Liberals has nothing to do with the defense of the United States, the betterment of our people or Liberty, Freedom and the Pursuit of Happiness.  Everything for Liberals is about destroying the people they’ve decided to hate and despise.  That is their #1 mission and it supersedes any interest in the United States of America.

This disturbing behavior is manipulated and encourage by radical groups like MOVE-ON-CON-JOB.org who now has produced an incredibly stupid solicitation aimed at the most ignorant people in our country to support an investigation of the authorization of using enhanced interrogation techniques.  The clip has a deep-throated voice that sounds like a guy who couldn’t quite cut it as a paid Mob-voice-over specialist but may have not wiped his butt well the day he made the audio; I think you can tell that is true.  Either that or a tight rubberband was inadvertently left on his scrotum during a recent teabagging.

The singular mission of this political manipulation group pushes the one strand at the core of its existence: to attack the Bush administration.  This is their primary agenda and a disturbed agenda it is.  Not to mention it is counter-productive for the United States of America.  Ask 50 million Iraqis who now have the opportunity to pursue their own lives, liberty and happiness under a democracy and with an opportunity to build economy, infrastructure and services.  If Iraq continues down its difficult path with success, future history books will positively embrace and describe the liberation of the Iraqi people by the United States of America and may even denote an Iraqi holiday of sovereignty and independence in honor of President Bush.  In the big picture, 50 million people living free and in a democracy in a strategic part of the world would go down as a very huge accomplishment in world history.  Meanwhile, court jesters at MOVE-ON-CON-JOB.org, backed by billionaire George Soros, want to investigate those that approved use of “enhanced interrogation techniques”, which were used to gain information that uncovered the plot to accomplish another 9/11, this time in Los Angeles.  MOVE-ON-CON-JOB.org would rather spare Al Qaeda leaders from certain techniques than prevent a 9/11 to blow up major facilities in Los Angeles, possibly even the airport.  What schmucks have signed up backing this? 

Actually this could be a smart endeavor in disguise, especially since Nancy Pelosi and several other Democrats had committee oversight and were well aware of all decisions made after September 11^th, 2001 when terrorists enacted war on our country.  This actually might not be a bad idea since it could suck Pelosi and certain other members of the Liberal doophusalia into the propeller of an investigative engine.  Only a lost soul can find this Agenda anything other than moronic.

Next Blog Update  ➜  Sunday Evening

APRIL MARKET MANIA

STOCKS SLIDE AFTER TRYING TO RALLY – DOW OFF 83 TO 7886

LIBERAL CORE VALUES OF HATE & BIGOTRY ON FULL DISPLAY AT MISS AMERICA CONTEST

Apr 22 (Wednesday) – This was one of those crazy bidirectional days (1-Day Chart) when the stock market swung from a lower opening, to a nice rally, to a sell-off, to another rally to a final hour sell-off to close at the lows of the day.  The collapse of stock prices from intra-day highs to intra-day lows all in the Last Hour, is the kind of action that signals a continuation off a topping area.

The earnings reports from major companies created a wide range of information highlighted by the disappointment in Morgan Stanley with their loss to the optimistic statement from Northrop Grumman.  The majority of reports were less than stellar.  The first intra-day rally was triggered on data showing that housing prices actually rose last month.  News from GM saying they won’t be making their next debt payment cast a gloom that hovered even when stocks were in the rally phase.  A more ominous news item came that the acting CFO for FANNIE MAE was found dead from suicide in his home.  It is curious why this would happen, with the long history of shenanigans that are linked between government sponsors of Fannie (aka Barney Frank, Chris Dodd) and the entire philosophy of promoting aggressive lending. 

If we step back to observe the bigger stock market picture (2-Year Chart), you may recall (or look through past blogs) that I frequently defined the rally off the March low as one that would run into trouble in the 8000-8300 range and it is starting to materialize to be the exact case.  Given that the tone for today’s trading was positive most of the session, there was actually a mixed close evidenced by NASDAQ actually holding a tiny gain today as the DOW INDUSTRIALS lost 83 points (1.04%).  Both the NYSE and NASDAQ Advance/Decline Ratios held onto a small positive bias.  Tomorrow the Jobless Claims numbers will be very critical and if they are not showing enough improvement (a lessening of job losses) we could see selling right off the bat.  Existing Home Sales will also be released.

THE POWER OF GOLD

GOLD gained about $7 today.  The inverse relationship between stocks and the precious metals is continuing to build.  This, in my view, is the most telling development in financial markets.  It used to be that the DOLLAR was the counter-trend partner for GOLD, but last year that relationship changed.  This new development with regard to the stock market validates for me, that GOLD is building a base here around the $850 line in preparation to launch an eventual move back above $1000.

A NEW TWIST TO AN OLD AXIOM - SELL BEFORE MAY AND GO AWAY

There is an old adage – SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY – I’m suggesting that this year there may be a slight twist to the old reliable axiom, my twist is - SELL BEFORE MAY AND GO AWAY - There remains only 6 trading days in April.  Foretold is forewarned!

EARNINGS SEASON MOVES INTO HIGH GEAR

The Wednesday earnings reports were all over the map.  When Kimberly-Clark(KMB) and AT&T(T) are struggling it brings back to reality just how tough the economic environment is.  Rising stocks can make people A) forget how difficult things are and B) provide a false sense of hope that improvement is in the offing.  Poor numbers from Morgan Stanley(MS), contributed to the early selling as they did not follow in the footsteps of other banks who reported good profits.  Boeing(BA) shares managed to rise today despite reporting a 50% drop in profits and commenting of a challenging 2009 outlook.  After the close Apple(AAPL) earnings were greeted warmly on beating estimates even though they lowered guidance.

On Thursday the earnings parade continues.  We’ll be especially watching for United Parcel Service(UPS), Raytheon(RTN), Hershey Company(HSY) & ConocoPhillips(COP).

HONORING AMERICANS STANDING UP

FOR FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM

My Friends:  The principals of FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM are the core values which conceived the Greatness of our United States of America.

MORE DEMENTED LIBERAL CORE VALUES OF BIGOTRY & HATRED ON DISPLAY

WATCH CLIP OF YET ANOTHER REPULSIVE LIBERAL

Miss California, Carrie Prejean, did not become Miss USA because she did not answer a question on same sex marriage the way a Liberal Slimeball who asked it wanted her to.  Donald Trump ought to be ashamed to have his name tied in with this behavior; it is unacceptable on every level.  This is the latest example of DEMENTED LIBERAL BEHAVIOR ON DISPLAY IN AMERCIA (video).  This celebrity-blogger heathen represents exactly the kind of  behind-the-scenes rubbish that is directing the agenda of the Obama administration.  I don’t know how any decent people with reasonable core values can wake up in the morning, look in the mirror and feel good about politically associating themselves with the endless Liberal hatred.  It is crystal clear the top priority of Liberals has nothing to do with the defense of the United States, the betterment of our people or Liberty, Freedom and the Pursuit of Happiness.  Everything for Liberals is about destroying the people they’ve decided to hate and despise.  That is their #1 mission and it supersedes any interest in the United States of America. 

There is no need to embellish or complicate what it is really all about.  It is a sickness of selfish absorption.  This country is headed in a bad direction as there appears to be no decent Liberals who speak out against the hate-mongering trash like this or Janeane Garo-fony.  Here is one account.  Here is another.

Next Blog Update  ➜  Thursday Evening

APRIL MARKET MANIA

DOW INDUSTRIALS BOUNCE BACK 127 POINTS – DOW AT 7969

SLUTRAG LOST ANOTHER $75 MILLION - ON ITS WAY TOWARD DISINTEGRATION

Apr 21 (Tuesday) – As the stream of earnings reports hit the newswires stocks opened with a downward stroke.  The results were a mixed bag with regard to companies, some meeting expectations, others falling short, though most were unable to project positive outlooks looking forward.  Nonetheless stocks were able to shake it all off and after 90 minutes of minor selling pressure the market moved into positive territory.  Geithner stated that most US Banks have enough capital and this seemed to assist today’s rebound from yesterday's selling spree.  The INDUSTRIALS recovered 1.63% and the broadly based NYSE COMP rose 2.29%.  Market internals were firm with winners leading losers by not quite 5-to-1.  Trading volume was less than yesterday.  Among the strongest sectors were the banks and oil services.  High yielding stocks including closed-end bond and equity funds and overseas shipping stocks were also strong.  A quick snap back to yesterday’s breakdown is not atypical and if the market has truly made a short-term top, the market will struggle here and either tomorrow or Thursday will be back in sell mode.  True to its current inverse relationship, GOLD fell while stocks rallied, though it should be noted today’s loss of only $1.50 in the precious metal is another sign that this market is strengthening versus other assets.  The $825-870 range is a very solid base for GOLD.  Investors will have plenty to chew on in the morning with quarterly results due out from Morgan Stanley(MS), Boeing(BA) and a number of other key companies.  I remain defensive on stocks.

There is an old adage – SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY – Keep in mind, there are only 7 trading days left in April.  My time is short tonight so we’ll leave it there and see what happens tomorrow.  There are no major economic reports to deal with tomorrow, though we will see how Mortgage Applications trended, often a leading indicator for Home Sales.

EARNINGS SEASON MOVES INTO HIGH GEAR

Slutrag(NYT: $4.94) shares of the newspaper that offers All The Liberal Propaganda That’s UnFit to Print lost another $75 million in their first quarter report.  Shares plunged another 15% to below $5 a share.  The print media headquarters for left-wing wackos appears to be on its last legs.  Once this company succumbs to their heavy debt load and inability to produce an intellectually sound product, the country can begin to get back to its core values and foundation based upon Americans standing up for FREEDOM – INDIVIDUALISM – CAPITALISM.

On Wednesday earnings reports from more corporate heavyweights will include Morgan Stanley(MS), Boeing(BA), Wells Fargo(WFC), Apple(AAPL), Freeport McMoRan(FCX), GlaxoSmithKline(GSK), Kimberly-Clark(KBM), Northrop Grumman(NOC).  Market volatility could increase again on these reports.

HONORING AMERICANS STANDING UP

FOR FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM

My Friends:  The principals of FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM are the core values which conceived the Greatness of our United States of America.

God Bless those who defend our country.  Today especially, our thoughts and prayers go out to those who lost loved ones on September 11, 2001.  Though some in Washington are having trouble distinguishing the difference between the friends and enemies of the United States of America, let it be known that all efforts to protect the citizens of this country from outside harm are those who have stood tall for us all.  Tonight Al Qaeda leaders are laughing hard as they plot their revised "recruitment" strategies after reading US Top Secret Memos on interrogation techniques.  The Liberals core values now include acts that place the United States at potentially greater risk of harm.

Next Blog Update  ➜  Wednesday Evening

APRIL MARKET MANIA

BLOODBATH AS MARKET SLIDES 289 POINTS – DOW AT 7841

STRONG INVERSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GOLD and STOCKS IS A MAJOR STANDOUT

Apr 20 (Monday) – The stock market took a royal beating today.  Selling started from the opening bell (day-chart), quickly accelerated and reminder under pressure until the closing bell.  This was a sobering reminder at how stocks always fall faster than they rise.  The INDUSTRIALS lost 3.56% and it was worse in the broader indexes.  NASDAQ fell 3.88, the S&P500 fell 4.28 and NYSE COMP fell 4.56.  It was worse for OIL which declined over 8%.  It was a broad based decline with only 220 stocks rising as the NSYE Adv/Dec Ratio was negative by a staggering 12-to-1.  One sector trashed among the hardest are the Banks which were down double digits with Bank America(BAC: $8.02) shares slashed by 24% as investor grew concerned about the sharp $6.4 billion increase in provision for loan loss reserves.

Losses were swept heavily across nearly every sector including COPPER, Homebuilders and REIT’s.  Yesterday I highlighted trouble brewing in the high end commercial market that could undermine the stock market rally.  Tomorrow will be a test to see if earnings reports from IBM and Texas Instruments this evening and a slew of new ones from major US corporations can bring a stronger undertone.  With overseas markets likely to follow today’s bloodbath tomorrow morning’s sentiment will require heavy assistance.  For the benefit of those who missed my Sunday blog, I will keep text (below) of the TECHNICAL VIEW I presented which warned of a potential problem for stocks.

MORE EVIDENCE OF INVERSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GOLD and STOCKS

Once again GOLD showed the inverse relationship to stocks as it rallied $16 today to $885 and Mining shares was the place to be, most rising from 2% to 8%.  I’ve been pointing out this important new correlation in recent weeks and here is the updated 5-day chart.  It is uncanny, the symmetrical mirror image these two markets are creating.  With the stock market potentially heading into a new phase of decline, GOLD stocks could be the best thing to own and I’ve repeated daily the idea of shifting some common equities to boosting exposure to the precious metals.  I hope most of you are seeing this.

BRIEF TECHNICAL OVERVIEW OF STOCK MARKET

Techical Comments Reprinted from Sunday:

TECHNICAL VIEW – After a 6 week advance, this is as good a time as any to evaluate the technical condition of the stock market, especially as an air of optimism has seemed to overpower recent expressions of fear by investors.  One need not be a technician extraordinaire to see from this 1 –year DOW chart that the current rally is facing some technical challenges.  The fast stochastic indicator (beneath the chart) has reached an extreme high level, often a sign where rallies fail.  Note how the red line is starting to cross below the black line.  Now look at how the market behaved after a similar occurrence during the prior 12 months.  Not very encouraging.  It will take quite an event to keep this rally going and with the economy still struggling such an event has low probable odds.  Now notice the ‘V’ formation off the recent low in March.  Markets often create symmetrical patterns.  But now the ‘V’ is complete and we observe the market traded sideways for about 4 months prior to the market’s failure into the March low.  It would be constructive is stocks can work this condition off with a similar sideways pattern.  The alternative would be a rolling over into another decline.  That will raise talk of “testing the March low” which would reintroduce stress into the financial market, though not as sever as we’ve already experienced.  Still, it would mean that a real recovery is further off than the third quarter, which is what the current stock rally implies.  These and other observations I make on the market internals and market sentiment are why I last week started encouraging some selling.  Taking profits from the current rally is a smart strategy to execute.  IF you believe this analysis is incorrect and that stocks will work higher, they will do so in an environment of higher risk levels.  That’s why it makes sense to sell at least 50% of the positions and stand back for a better entry point.  There’s always another stock to buy if the one you like gets away.  As I often repeat and with good reason:  It is much more important to execute an intelligent approach to risk management, than it is to rely on the likelihood of a prediction no matter how confident you or I may be in our assessment.

EARNINGS SEASON MOVES INTO HIGH GEAR

After the close Technology heavyweights IBM(IBM: $100.43) and Texas Instruments(TXN: $17.32) reported earnings and their results were unable to pump up a market that is feeling the malaise of a brutal session.  In fact, IBM stock was down further in after-hours trading.

Tomorrow we’ll see reports from United Technologies(UTX: $45.81), U.S. Bancorp(USB: $15.94), Caterpillar(CAT: $30.48), Merck(MRK: $25.22), Coca-Cola(KO), DuPont(DD: $26.74) and many others, including Slutrag(NYT: $5.85).  It could be another wild day.

HONORING AMERICANS STANDING UP

FOR FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM

My Friends:  The principals of FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM are the core values of Greatness which conceived the Greatness of our United States of America.

Next Blog Update  ➜  Tuesday Evening

APRIL MARKET MANIA

STOCKS RALLY FOR 6^th STRAIGHT WEEK – DOW AT 8131

PLEASANTRIES FROM THE HEARTS OF PASSIONATE LIBERALS  /  WHERE’S THE CHEESE?

THROW THESE BUMS OUT!  PELOSI – FRANK – WATERS – SCHUMER – DODD – REID – BOXER

Apr 19 (Sunday) – The promise of a big finish to last week fizzled in late trading Friday but that does not diminish the optimism that’s been created by six consecutive weeks of a rising stock market.  The DOW INDUSTRIALS gained 5 points to close at 8131.  Most averages also managed staying positive and the NYSE Adv/Dec Ratio was a comparatively robust 2-to-1 in favor of winning issues.  Investors greeted the key earnings reports warmly and stocks held the line.  Again GOLD showed the inverse relationship to stocks and declined by $5 to $868.  Most bank stocks were higher and oil service issues were firm.  Consumer discretionary stocks were strong, a sign that confidence has re-entered the sentiment equation.  It’s been a very good rally for 6 weeks.  Not only have the INDUSTRIALS risen by 23% but other key indexes gained even more and the NASDAQ is actually showing a net gain year-to-date.  Some individual stocks have more than doubled off their lows…. so anyone bold enough to make commitments back when I was pointing out extreme capitulation-like internal stock market readings in some of the key indicators: Bravo for you.  It is very hard to pull the trigger when it looks like the sky is falling.  But now is a different story.  Optimism now reflects a modest improvement in net worth.  So much so, that there are some new concerns.  Some economic indicators do suggest a slowing rate of economic decline.  The market has anticipated this and now with the big rally already in the books, investors face a different challenge.  Expectations are now geared to see signs that there will be economic recovery in the third quarter.  That may be too much to ask. 

Looking straight ahead:
Monday morning will reveal the monthly Leading Economic Indicators, data that should be helped by the rising stock market.  This index of future economic activity has not an earth shaking market mover.  The onslaught of earnings reports from many of America’s major corporations will be the main focus this week.

TROUBLE BREWING IN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SECTOR?

On Thursday the stock market barely flinched when General Growth Properties filed the largest real estate bankruptcy in US history.  With over 200 malls in 44 states, they are the second largest mall operator in the country.  Their properties include some of the most well known and actively visited malls.  The bankruptcy filing wasn’t too much of a surprise which may be why the stock market did not react to it.  However, professionals from every corner of high end commercial real estate are nearly unanimous in their belief that there is a wave of failures coming in that market sector.  In other words, the next shoe that everyone talks about could be ready to drop.  It would be hard for stocks to keep the rally in force with a backdrop of collapses in large projects while challenges exist about the ability of major real estate big deals to get financed.

BRIEF TECHNICAL OVERVIEW OF STOCK MARKET

TECHNICAL VIEW – After a 6 week advance, this is as good a time as any to evaluate the technical condition of the stock market, especially as an air of optimism has seemed to overpower recent expressions of fear by investors.  One need not be a technician extraordinaire to see from this 1 –year DOW chart that the current rally is facing some technical challenges.  The fast stochastic indicator (beneath the chart) has reached an extreme high level, often a sign where rallies fail.  Note how the red line is starting to cross below the black line.  Now look at how the market behaved after similar occurrences during the prior 12 months.  Not very encouraging.  It will take quite an event to keep this rally going and with the economy still struggling such an event occurring has low probable odds.  Now notice the ‘V’ formation off the recent low in March.  Markets often create symmetrical patterns.  But now the ‘V’ is complete and we observe the market traded sideways for about 4 months prior to the market’s failure into the March low.  It would be constructive if stocks can work this condition off with a similar sideways pattern.  The alternative would be a rolling over into another decline.  That will raise talk of “testing the March low” which will reintroduce stress into the financial market, though not as severe as we’ve already experienced.  Still, it would mean that a real recovery is further off than the third quarter, which is what the current stock rally implies.  These and other observations I make on the market internals and market sentiment are why I last week started encouraging some selling. 

Taking profits from the current rally is a smart strategy to execute.  If you believe this analysis is incorrect and that stocks will work higher, they will do so in an environment of higher risk levels.  That’s why it makes sense to sell at least 50% of the positions and stand back for a better entry point.  There’s always another stock to buy if the one you like gets away.  As I often repeat and with good reason:  It is much more important to execute an intelligent approach to risk management, than it is to rely on the likelihood of a prediction - no matter how confident you or I may be in our assessment.

EARNINGS SEASON MOVES INTO HIGH GEAR

This is a huge week for corporate earnings reports.  On Monday morning the quarterly results will be out for BankOfAmerica(BAC: $10.60), Eaton Corp(ETN: $44.75), Eli Lilly(LLY: $33.75), Halliburton(HAL: $18.78) and one of our recommendations in the oil service sector, Weatherford Intl (WFT: $14.75) and after the close technology heavyweights IBM(IBM: $101.27) and Texas Instruments(TXN: $17.97).

On Tuesday we’ll see reports from CATERPILLAR(CAT: $32.29), Merck(MRK: $25.73), DuPont(DD: $28.42) and many others, including Slutrag(NYT: $6.71).

EXHIBITION OF LIBERAL MINDS – THE CHEESE STANDS ALONE

(names intentionally modified below as caricatures to offer humor and to reflect images mirrored from actual broadcasts)

Americans were recently treated to a rare glimpse deep inside the psychology of an uneasy Liberal mind.  It was a scientifically unbiased double feature horror-show as Janeane Garo-fony tainted the already spunky set of MSNBC’s Keith Blowbermann to speak her mind in this disturbing exchange about Americans attending Tea Parties events across the country.  This is a very sick puppy.

Garo-fony, faux-actress, pseudo-comedienne and hypocrite of grand proportions appears in dire need of skilled remedial attention.  Supposedly a comedienne, she has no jokes and has admitted as much; though see if you can unearth her feeble attempt at one in the clip.  Those who laugh for her may do so as a courtesy, out of sympathy or to patronize.  Admittedly, there is an unrestrainable belly-laugh to be had when the interview morphs into an amusing masquerade of a psychology conference as Garo-fony and Blowbermann exchange a limbic brain diagnosis of conservatives, as if they were two certified scholars of clinical psychology.  

An expert in nothing detectable, Garo-fony viciously attacked Middle Class Americans, who rallied this week in a pure and perfectly civil All-American demonstration of Democracy the way the Founding Fathers did, calling them “racists” and “ignorant about American history” while offering her unscientific-babble about the limbic brain to support her disturbing statements.

She used the words “hateful” and “pathological”, things Garo-fony may know something about, as any credible psychologist can spot from observing and listening to her chimera mind.  The aspersions she cast upon the general public mirrored reflections of a pathological disorder of a hateful compulsive/obsessive self-delusion she appears afflicted with.

Garo-fony is brazen to make those acidic accusations in the comfort of Blowbermann’s lair.  The shameless pseudo-intellectual host at the 24/7 Liberal-Infomercial called MSNBC lapped it all up like any first-class teabagger would (my forced word choice to mimic Blowbermann’s attempts at “journalistic humor”).  Possessing no sentence-structuring skills and specializing in grotesque sexual jokes aimed at lawful civilians, his journalistic competence is exposed as a façade.  Garo-fony has a completely different persona when not protected inside the Liberal Fortress of the MOVE-ON-CON-JOB cable network.  She is of such mettle, backbone and moral fiber; a few years ago she was a no-show on the set of her TV series the day Lynne Cheney and Rush Limbaugh were guests there.  It isn’t surprising Garo-fony was recruited years ago by MOVE-ON-CON-JOB.org to be a frontline media spokesperson to elevate visibility for anti-war activism; a left-wing political organization recruiting the biggest nut of all.

Anyone sitting ‘round cheering on those two warped individuals requires therapy.  Those hungry for that junky-fix to reinforce emotional thirsting for hatred, disrespect and non-tolerance from two incoherent self-absorbed bumble-brains, should not be taken seriously with regard to providing input to America’s agenda.  Scarily, the administration seems to be taking direction from exactly this type.  With nobody on the left speaking out against ultra-hateful rants, our country is headed in a ghastly direction right now.  In plain English, America’s now got a congregation of yielding people providing maps for our future, including compromising the safety of Americans by releasing Top Secret CIA Memos detailing US interrogation methods.  The Liberal ruse that releasing internal information has anything to do with changing terrorist recruitment methods is a joke.  Clear thinking Americans of all political persuasions should see through this.

Next thing you know Garo-fony will be named to head the Department of Defense.  Then it won’t be long before America raises the flag of surrender to Iran under her guidance.  Let’s look at a more scientific explanation replicating the way Garo-fony did, but without referencing the limbic brain, to diagnose this amazing phenomenal dual display of Liberal pathology.

SCIENTIFIC EXPERIMENT TO EXPLORE THE LIBERAL MIND

In a recent experimental study of the Liberal mind, lab mice were separately injected with DNA matter from Garo-fony and Blowbermann.  The mice were starved for 3 days and placed inside a labyrinth, a complex maze structure which contained one successful path to a piece of cheese.  The cheese was placed in the center and the Garo-fony mouse and Blowbermann mouse were placed at different starting points.  The paths were opened and the mice started running through the maze, occasionally stopping to sniff the sweet smell of cheese.  Suddenly both mice found themselves staring at each other from opposite ends of the same pathway.  The two mice ran towards each other, sniffed each other and embraced.  The G-mouse and B-mouse began copulating (the G-Mouse was also observed teabagging).  They rolled around locked in a love grasp, wildly rocking the experimental labyrinth, shaking it to the equivalent of an 8.0 earthquake in that scaled down environment.  After long loving encounters interposed with romantic sweet-talking chirps of green issues, global warming and discussions of the limbic brain (oops, I said we would not reference this), their energy expired.  Both collapsed and died in their toxic embrace.  They never did get the cheese.

They lost sight of the goal.  Preservation.  America.  Evaluators concluded that emotional desires of Liberal-mice overwhelmed their ability to think and reason rationally, causing a self-destructive override of their basic survival instincts.  America is now at the mercy of policies inspired by bleeding heart Liberal-mice.  Logic, common sense and historical knowledge of dealing with enemies are now subordinate to emotional “feel good” whims.  Science determined that the Liberal penchant for prioritizing ‘making the self feel good’ in the moment, even at the cost of long-term astuteness, is alive and well.  They are driven to actions that steal moments of immediate gratification (akin to infidelity), while presuming immunity from accountability when costs from those actions come home to roost.  Liberals condone any behavior (for them only) no matter how distasteful, disruptive and disobedient.  Perfectly demonstrated by Garo-fony’s outrageous assault in the video clip, Liberal-mice hypocritically flaunt an interpretation of the First Amendment Right to Free Speech under one set of rules for themselves, while spewing nasty connotations under different rules applied to those who view things another way.  Hundreds of thousands of lawful public demonstrators radiates a bonfire of respectability compared to the foul-mouthed hate-driven rants of a couple of off-balanced individuals.  Cheese anyone?

HONORING AMERICANS

 STANDING UP FOR FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM

My Friends:  Last week I sent the following email to my Congressman.  I urge everyone to do the same and encourage others.  It is time to stop wasteful spending by the most dangerously drunk with power person among the Washington doophusalia, Nancy Pelosi and her band of thieves.  We can and should start with ACORN-CON-JOB.

THROW THESE BUMS OUT NOW

Pelosi, Frank, Waters, Schumer,

Dodd, Reid, Boxer, Sherman

MAKE THEM STOP FUNDING ACORN-CON-JOB TODAY!

Next Blog Update  ➜  Monday Evening

APRIL MARKET MANIA

DOW INDUSTRIALS RALLY AGAIN GAINING 95 TO 8125

THE REAL MIDDLE CLASS AMERICA SPEAKS OUT / PELOSI DISHES MISINFORMATION
(where is Mannequin-Joe Biden’s Task Force?)

THROW THESE BUMS OUT!:  PELOSI – FRANK – WATERS – SCHUMER – DODD – REID – BOXER

Apr 16 (Thursday) – Yesterday, it looked to me like the stock market rally wanted to take another stab higher, and after waffling around slightly in minus territory for a few hours, buyers gathered a new head of steam and stocks worked their way higher.  For a period of 90 minutes the rally steamrolled up 170 points, but selling in the final 20 minutes cut the gains (day chart).  Most averages advanced 1.25% or more and NASDAQ was up twice that.  Internal action was solid all day and breadth finished with a 4/1 positive bias winners to losers.  There were many strong sectors, though the HMO’s were bleeding all day.  COPPER stocks were mixed.  And as I recently pointed out the inverse pattern that has formed between stocks and GOLD, the precious metal took a $16 beating today.  From my standpoint today was an excellent day to sell some of those recently strong stocks and purchase some of those mining shares that were selling off.

The current rally is now way over-extended.  Markets have been rallying on economic data that showed a lessening of the decline.  With stocks up 25-30% and some individual stocks up much more, there is the potential for an inflection point that shifts market psychology.  The low bar that had been set is getting higher.  Tomorrow’s only data point from the Michigan Sentiment Survey won’t be much of an influence on the market but will show the same moderate improvement of other recent sentiment based surveys.  Investors may be reaching a point of looking at their recent easy profits and look at the economy and say, so what else is new?  Tomorrow is the final unwinding of options expiration although much of that influence is probably what we witnessed the past 2 sessions.

HOT IPO TODAY! – An event today reflecting the optimistic shift in market tone, an IPO came public today which did very well.  Rosetta Stone(RST) was priced at $18 a share, above the expected price range.  The stock opened sharply higher with the first trade up at $25 and after its first full day, the company well known for selling language learning programs, closed at $25.12.

EARNINGS SEASON

The big anticipation all day was this Q1 report from Google(GOOD: $388.74) whose shares gained 3% yesterday, and surged another 9% today.   The stock was rising further in after hours to near $410 as earnings did beat expectations, although it is noteworthy that revenues fell in sequential quarters for the first time ever and corporate head count also declined.  Reality must have set in as the stock slid all the way back to beneath today’s closing price before I finished tonight’s blog.  Citigroup(C: $4.01) is the next key financial company hitting the street tomorrow and expectations are not as high as these positive results turned in by JP Morgan(JPM: $33.24) this morning.  Also hugely awaited are results from General Electric(GE: $12.27) which rose nearly 4% in today’s market.  Mattel(MAT: $13.03) is another company reporting tomorrow of interest.

AMERICA’S REAL MIDDLE CLASS

There are apparently two middle classes in America today.  There’s the imaginary one Obama sets up as a straw man in all of his speeches.  Then there are the millions of real Middle Class Americans, some that turned out in droves to Tea Parties yesterday all over the country.  There is an obvious disconnect somewhere between the actual Middle Class and the imaginary one portrayed by the president.  Here’s the separation:  It was foolhardy for anyone thinking they could enter the White House in 2009, promote a “class war” and still somehow court the common Middle Class American.  Those who believe in and follow that defective pathway of logic display an impaired vision of folly.

Joe “The Mannequin” Biden who was placed in charge of Obama’s middle class task force might be in over his head.  While he was perhaps searching for Katie’s Restaurant (which closed down 15 years ago) to have his first task force committee meeting, Middle Class America was out in full force all over the streets of America.  Good Job Joe.  Stay on top of things!

America’s Middle Class are the hardest working people of this country trying to make ends meet.  They are not the 40% of the people who currently don’t pay taxes.  The real Middle Class Americans are not the ones Obama thinks he’s been talking to.  In fact, he’s been alienating and insulting and offending the true Middle Class Americans since day one with both direct and subliminal negative undertones in his rhetoric.  He’s not losing Middle Class Americans just because of the burdensome economic proposals of giant spending, but also with his puffy arrogance and sad portrayal of American’s around the world.  We are a proud people with a proud history.  Anyone who doesn’t like it here in these United States can move to any third world country / totalitarian of their choosing.  Cuba, Venezuela…. Or Go to Mexico.  Good riddance, too.  If you don’t like it here, leave.

The in-your-face double standard of Liberals is a continuous offense to the spirit of the real American Middle Class.  The latest DHS document talks about violence and extremism from conservatives.  Yet it is always the Liberals that are creating violence to others and property damage in their public demonstrations.  The tolerance for differing opinion by the left wing is zero.  This was made clear again in a demonstration at North Carolina University where radical Liberal students disrupted (see clips here) the speaking engagement of former Congressman Tom Tancredo who was invited to discuss his views on illegal immigration.  Liberals consistently behave like babies whose mamas refuse to give them their favorite pacifiers.  Crying WaaaaWaaaaWAWA.

Why didn’t the latest DHS documents mention Liberal Activist Susan Sarandon who in this internet vid openly promoted people to perform acts of civil disobedience in the name of her illusions about global warming?  These are instigations directly promoting violent extremist acts in this country.  Why the free pass for Sarandon?  The priorities at DHS and the Obama administration on this issue are reckless.  That is putting it mildly.

Today, in an effort to diffuse political damage, the Queen of doophusalia, Nancy Pelosi rushed out a statement that the public gatherings were not inspired by a grass roots movement but rather an initiative funded by wealthy people.  Of course, delusional politicians like Pelosi, who can’t function without the background support of slimy, sneaky efforts from MOVE-ON-CON-JOB.org and ACORN-CON-JOB and from high-profile promotions by Dizzy-Liberal Hollywood types and lying deviants like Michael “Pig-Puke” Moore, can’t really comprehend what a grass roots movement is.  After all, ACORN-CON-JOB claims to be grass roots on their web site, but they are fully subsidized by Democrat promoted and approved pork spending to the tune of unaccountable millions of taxpayer money.  That was Middle Class America out there yesterday and they are tired of being talked down to by an elitist administration and delirious power-drunk Liberals like the House Speaker.  A tidal wave starts as an undercurrent.

HONORING AMERICANS

STANDING UP FOR FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM

My Friends:  Yesterday I sent the following email to my Congressman.  I urge everyone to do the same and to encourage others.  It is time to stop wasteful spending by the most dangerously drunk with power person among the Washington doophusalia, Nancy Pelosi and her band of thieves.  We can and should start with ACORN-CON-JOB.

THROW THESE BUMS OUT NOW

Pelosi, Frank, Waters, Schumer,

Dodd, Reid, Boxer, Sherman

MAKE THEM STOP FUNDING ACORN-CON-JOB TODAY!

Next Blog Update  ➜ Sunday Evening, Have a Great Weekend. - gc

APRIL MARKET MANIA

DOW INDUSTRIALS RALLY 109 TO 8029

THOUSANDS OF BIPARTISANS ATTEND TEA PARTIES FROM COAST-TO-COAST

THROW THESE BUMS OUT!:  PELOSI – FRANK – WATERS – SCHUMER – DODD – REID – BOXER

Apr 15 (Wednesday) – Stocks opened mildly lower continuing the 2-day trend as it digested the early economic data.  It was a mixed bag of info, some showing signs of moderation, while Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization continued very weak.  Investors were not shaken.  Despite steady selling in the technology sector, the rest of the stock market gradually stair-stepped its way higher throughout the session and closed on its highs.  They key averages gained from 1.25 to 1.60% with a 2.5-to-1 advantage for rising issues.  The tech-heavy NASDAQ even managed to get back to even and with a 1.7-to1 bias of winners to losers.  GOLD added $1 and change.  OIL was little changed, although many energy stocks held firm today.  Mortgage applications actually fell this week but homebuilding stocks were strong such as KB HOME(KBH: $15.75) which soared 10%.  That sector and the positive intra-day turnaround in banks and financials were aided by release of the Fed's Beige Book which had a more positive tone about economic conditions than recent reports.  This was the key to the uplifting tone in late trading.  Factor in some activity related to the options expiration coming this Friday.

It isn’t clear if today’s Tea Party had any bearing on the rebound in stocks.  Today, thousands of people around the country went to the streets at some 700 locations protesting proposals that increase size of government to gargantuan proportions, increase taxes on business, and mount a national debt in the tens of trillions.  A most interesting aspect was the unequivocally bipartisan component of the gatherings.  There were as many Democrats as Republicans along with Independents and Libertarians.  It appears the National Wake-Up-Call has arrived.  The Obama constituency is cracking.  The moderates who voted for him apparently did not realize he meant every word he said on the campaign trail.  Now Obama must choose between his common sense supporters (those who attended Tea Parties today) and the maniacal fanatic supporters like those connected to the political manipulation group MOVE-ON-CON-JOB.org who claim to admire and marvel at Obama’s budget proposal in an adoring way.  No sane person can associate with such nonsense and maintain any inkling of credibility.

Tomorrow’s Jobless Claims, Housing Starts and Philly Fed Survey will provide more information referencing the status of the recession.  With the idea that a top of a technical type is forming for stocks, today’s rally has again put the market solidly into the resistance zone (8000-8300) and today’s move reinforced a still overbought condition.  The stock market acts like it wants to make another stab at extending the rally, but it appears that internal momentum is breaking down and I would still use strength to keep lightening up holdings to a level of risk suitable to personal tolerances.  I would also add to GOLD positions to get to an overweighted portfolio position.

EARNINGS SEASON

Disappointing numbers from Intel(INTC: $15.62) not only pressured shares of the semiconductor firm to fall 2+%, but had a depressive effect on the entire technology sector.  AMR Corp(AMR: $5.01) shares jumped nearly 20% as the $375 million loss was less than expected and certain cost-cutting measures were disclosed.  Abbott(ABT: $44.71) shares fell over $2 despite the positive earnings report. 

Thursday brings the highly anticipated report from JP Morgan(JPM: $30.70) which usually delivers results within expectations.  Other reports out tomorrow which provide insight into the guts of the economy include Sherwin-Williams(SHW: $51.11), Parker Hannifin(PH: $36.30) & Harley-Davidson(HOG: $17.13).  Google(GOOG: $368.91) is the big one reporting after Thursday’s market close and shares ran up nearly 3% today on speculation.

HONORING AMERICANS

STANDING UP FOR FREEDOM, INDIVIDUALISM & CAPITALISM

My Friends:  Today I sent the following email to my Congressman.  I urge everyone to do the same and to encourage others.  It is time to stop wasteful spending by the most dangerously drunk with power person among the Washington doophusalia, Nancy Pelosi and her band of thieves.  We can and should start with ACORN-CON-JOB.

Mr. Gallegly,

I do not want another tax dollar of mine going to fund ACORN.

Please stop the charade of government funding this partisan group.

Glenn Cutler

THROW THESE BUMS OUT NOW

Pelosi, Frank, Waters, Schumer,

Dodd, Reid, Boxer, Sherman

MAKE THEM STOP FUNDING ACORN-CON-JOB TODAY!

My Next Blog Update  ➜ Thursday evening. - gc

APRIL MARKET MANIA

STOCKS SLIDE AS INDUSTRIALS GIVE UP 137 POINTS TO 7920

RECENT DHS REPORT SMACKS OF NAZI-LIKE MANIPULATION

ACORN-CON-JOB CALLS THEMSELVES PARTISAN AND IS FUNDED WITH YOUR TAX MONEY

CALL YOUR CONGRESS & SENATOR AND DEMAND THEY STOP FUNDING THIS FRAUD NOW!

Apr 14 (Tuesday) – The stock market could not find its footing today.  Even though it did rally after a strong morning sell off, there wasn’t much to provide an assist and prices fell back to close broadly lower.  The DOW INDUSTRIALS dropped 1.7% while the S&P500 and the NYSE Composite were off 2% each.  The weak retail sales figures really tripped the wire as investors are now concerned that the recent stability in those numbers may just be an aberration or a blip in a deeper downtrend.  The NYSE Adv/Dec Ratio was negative by 2.5/1.  OIL slipped below the $50 mark though some oil service stocks bucked the trend and closed higher.  GOLD tried fighting the decline and while it was unable to work higher, the $3 decline was minor.  Financial stocks which have had the strongest recent gains took a beating.  Technology stocks were mixed.

There was a full court economic press displayed by the Administration today.  Obama gave what amounted to a detailed state of the economy speech.  Bernanke spoke and took questions at Morehouse College.  Economic advisors Larry Summers who helped architect and supported the Glass-Steagall repeal and Jared Bernstein were on all the cable networks regurgitating the administration’s economic positions.  None of this helped the market.  It may have been more designed to diffuse the nationwide Tea Parties slated for tomorrow.  If that be the case, it won’t have much effect.

Tomorrow’s CPI and Industrial Production reports along with the Empire State Mfg Survey will impact trading.  It’s starting to look more like a top of some kind is forming and this is why I’ve been suggesting to reduce stock holdings into this period.  The post market release by Intel won’t help investor enthusiasm (see below).  It looks like the 8000-8300 range is too formidable for the rally, a rally which is losing momentum daily.  Look for a decline back toward 7500 as we finish this options expiration week.  Often Wednesday is the volatile trading session for these expiration periods.  Many, many years ago it was Thursday or Friday.  Be defensive.

EARNINGS SEASON

The Goldman Sachs(GS: $115.11) earnings report and announcement of a $5 billion equity raise didn’t help the stock today as shares were clobbered nearly 10% or $15 a share.  The Johnson & Johnson(JNJ: $51.37) numbers were decent though sales came in soft due to currency exchange rates, nonetheless shares were up slightly.  After the close Intel(INTC: $16.01) released Q1 financials which revealed a decline in sales, margins and earnings and shares fell 4% in after hours trading.  Tomorrow morning airline AMR Corp(AMR: $4.22) and healthcare products firm Abbott(ABT: $44.71) will be featured.  Then on Thursday the eagerly anticipated report from JP Morgan(JPM: $30.70) which got hammered by $3 today.  Google(GOOG: $368.91) reports after Thursday’s market close.

OUTRAGED BY APRIL 7, 2009 DHS REPORT

This new Department of Homeland Security Report put out by Obama administration is an outrage.  Among its many disturbing claims it states: “right wing extremists will attempt to recruit and radicalize returning military veterans”.  WOW!  It is unsettling that this type of message about our people in military service is in a government sponsored analysis.   The Obama administration is starting to resemble the early days of NAZI Germany.  Who writes this stuff?  Who provides this research and analysis?  America, you need to wake up.  You got duped in this last election.  But if you don’t awaken to reality soon, that CON-JOB will appear small compared to what is happening right beneath our noses.  Wake up people…. Wake up.  Here are comments about this Obama sponsored report from Michelle Malkin's blog.  Now for something else that requires your immediate attention….

WRITE YOUR CONGRESSPERSONS/SENATORS – TO STOP FUNDING ACORN-CON-JOB

I don’t want my tax dollars going to ACORN-CON-JOB.  My tax money doesn’t need to fund a partisan political group that doesn’t serve the interests of the country.  It serves the interests of one political party.  ACORN-CON-JOB claims it’s the largest grass roots community organization in the country.  Bull.  Grass roots is a disingenuous and gratuitous description.  It’s misleading and a gross misrepresentation.

They refer to themselves as a non-partisan organization.  This is an outright lie.  A fraud.

ACORN-CON-JOB is a government funded entity.  That’s not grass roots.  That is full subsidy.  Nancy Pelosi and her thieving clan made every effort to author millions of new monies earmarked toward this partisan Democratic Party Group in all of the emergency funding packages that have come along under the financial crisis.  This creepy organization is structured like the old shell companies, with shadow divisions and affiliates all over the country using different names to hide their activities and keep their agenda under wraps.

Every person today, needs to write, fax, call, email your congressperson and senator to demand that you do not want your tax money funding any part of this sleazy organization.

Their shadowy outfit has groups operating in over 100 cities throughout the country.  Recently they organized under one of their shadow groups in Connecticut to shuttle professional protestors to create havoc and make threats to family members of AIG workers.  I don’t want my money going into this scam.  And neither should you.  It should be stopped and it should be stopped now.

I call upon every working, tax-paying person in America to contact your local, state and national representatives and demand, insist and complain loudly that not another nickel of yours should go toward ACORN-CON-JOB.

If that slimy group wants to continue as a non-profit organization and call themselves “grass roots” they must be required to operate on the same playing field as all other non-profits…. raising money through their own efforts.

This is by far the biggest CON-JOB in Washington and it is sponsored by the same culprits who brought you aggressive home loan lending through Fannie Mae.  Ask yourself the same question I’ve been asking myself, and then make it known to your representatives:

Next Blog Update Wednesday evening. - gc

APRIL MARKET MANIA

STOCKS MIXED - INDUSTRIALS LOSE 25 POINTS TO 8057

GOLD ESTABLISHING COUNTER-CYCLICAL RELATIONSHIP TO STOCK MARKET

Apr 13 (Monday) – Without much morning news to stimulate direction the stock market backpedaled from the opening bell in an obvious mode of profit-taking after posting its 5^th straight weekly gain.  The DOW INDUSTRIALS slid nearly 120 points though a late recovery recouped everything and went positive.  Sellers dominated the final 5 minutes to close out with a loss.  Not true in the S&P500 and NASDAQ which etched out tiny gains.  The NYSE Adv/Dec Ratio was positive by a narrow 4/3 margin.  Not a bad day given when a broader decline looked like a certainty in the first hour.  Some sectors were incredibly strong.  Financial services and banks were standouts as were healthcare companies.  VISA(V) jumped 4% while General Electric(GE) surged 7%.  These are two stocks we recommended about a month ago.  OIL moved in the opposite direction, losing over $2 a barrel right back at the $50 level.

Tomorrow investors will face new numbers for Retail Sales, Producer Prices and Business Inventories.  The retail numbers are important as consumers have been showing a little stability in their spending habits lately.  Investors want to see these numbers firm up.  Today retail stocks were mixed to lower, obviously cautious ahead of this data.  The inventory number is also important because it is critical to know where business cycles are in terms of product and ordering.  If this number is soft it suggests a higher probably of increasing orders to restock, a perception of helping the economy.  Of course sometimes in a slow economy, business doesn’t want to risk capital with inventory that may be slow to move off shelves, so it is a bit of cat and mouse game.  If this number comes in showing inventories too high, the stock market will definitely NOT like that.  Stocks are still in an overbought condition.  The market often rally in early April and tops out around Tax day, April 15^th.  That’s Wednesday.  Let’s see how stocks react to tomorrow’s data and earnings reports, especially given the early release by Goldman Sachs(GS) after the close (see below).

EARNINGS SEASON

In a surprise move Goldman Sachs(GS: $130.15) released earnings after the close instead of tomorrow morning.  Shares had risen over $5 points during the session.   Earnings were stronger than expected at $3.39 for the quarter.  The company also announced an equity offering of $5 billion, hoping to repay $10 billion to close out involvement in the TARP program.  This leaves only Johnson and Johnson(JNJ: $51.15) for tomorrow morning’s significant financial reports.  After the close Intel(INTC: $15.98) will announce and they will be closely watched as a barometer for technology.

GOLD RUNNING COUNTER TO EQUITIES

GOLD jumped $14 today.  The metal was moving sharply higher as the stock market was grinding lower.  This pattern of directionally opposed movement to the broad equities market is becoming more pronounced.  ➜ This 3-Day Chart comparing GOLD (XAU) – blue line to STOCKS (DJI) – red line illustrates this recent behavior.  Check out last Tuesday when stocks opened sharply lower while GOLD surged at the same time.  The divergence is even more pronounced on Thursday when you can observe the mirror image take hold just before midday when stocks began to work higher and GOLD was mobbing at the same rate of speed lower.  More of this counter-relationship was visible today.  This action exposes two simultaneous market psychology factors: 

1) there is growing concern the current stock market rally is not sustainable, hence buying GOLD when stocks are weak

2) when upward momentum in stocks is evident, selling GOLD is used to rebalance holdings, adding to stocks to not miss a move

My opinion remains that GOLD be a key component of an investment portfolio raging from 10-15%.  I’ve recently stated the move below $900 an ounce as an excellent opportunity to position holdings correctly.  The recent advance in the stock market is looking shaky.  It would be wise to reduce overall equity exposure.  So if you bought Olin Corp(OLN) or any of the COPPER stocks I recently recommended, it would be wise to sell 50% of those positions as they’ve had spectacular gains.  This is how to manage money to counter balance market risk.

Next Blog Update is Tuesday evening. - gc

APRIL MARKET MANIA

STOCK MARKET JUMPS OVER 3% TO 8083 ON WELLS FARGO NEWS

LARRY SUMMERS WAS INSTRUMENTAL TO 1999 GLASS-STEAGALL REPEAL

ARROGANT SENATOR CHUCK SCHUMER RESPONSIBLE FOR FINANCIAL MELTDOWN
WITH FINGERPRINTS ALL OVER GLASS-STEAGALL & FANNIE MAE