TheWinnersForum.com - Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #7 --- 1/3/10 thru 3/18/10)

Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #7 --- 1/3/10 thru 3/18/10)

Written by California Glenn

Cutler's Stock Market Blog

WELCOME BACK!

Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #1) Nov 27, 2008 thru Feb 12, 2009)
Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #2) Feb 11, 2009 thru Mar 19, 2009)
Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #3) Mar 18, 2009 thru May 03, 2009)
Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #4) May 04, 2009 thru Jul 06, 2009)
Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #5) Jul 05, 2009 thru Oct 08, 2009)
Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #6) Oct 09, 2009 thru Dec 31, 2009)

➜ ➜ HERE IS MY TAKE ON CRAMER vs STEWART

MARKET MANIA

2010-3-18 (Thursday Evening Update)

MARCH MADNESS MARKET MANIA

INDUSTRIALS MAKE IT 8 IN A ROW UP 45 POINTS TO 10779

Douglas Holtz-Eakin (former CBO Director) - CNBC Interview
Inner Workings of CBO & Healthcare Bill (view this excellent interview here)

March 18 (Thursday) – Stocks remain unwavering in their quiet push to new recovery highs. All major indexes have now recently pushed up into areas not seen in from 15 to 18 months. True to recent form the volumes are unnervingly light. Neither the Leading Indicators nor the dreaded weekly Jobless Claims had much impact on markets. Greece was back in the news as support from Germany may not be possible and the IMF may be needed to assist on their debt situation. Today the gain in the DOW INDUSTRIALS masked weakness in the general market. The VIX (chart) fell to a new 52-week low raising serious red flags that market risk is HIGH while investors have been lulled into greater complacency. NYSE Volume (4.82/5.43/4.76) expanded on Wednesday but contracted again today. Market breadth was negative on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line with a ratio of 2-to-3 favoring declining shares. NASDAQ improved by a scant .09% or 2 points to 2391. The DOLLAR (USD: 80.24) was strong all session but closed beneath its best intra-day levels. GOLD was under pressure throughout the day but managed to recover enough to gain $2 to close at $1126. OIL took a breather from its recent strength giving back close to $1 a barrel to $81.95. The NYSE High/Low Ratio / New Highs(545/777/424) vs New Lows(57/62/23) may have exhibited a peak yesterday with the surge in daily New Highs to 777 and then retreated today to a number below that of 2 days ago.

Friday is the triple witching options expirations which these days are a non-event. Many years ago the days leading into these expirations used to bring on dramatic measures of volatility. The stock market has continues upward in the face of a continuing overbought technical condition and this alone is not unusual. We’ve said this week and next are pivotal and would determine if a rally continuation to above DOW 11000 was likely. The breakouts of all the averages tipped a positive indication. And while such a move has grown in probability (and appears to be in motion) this does not negate the downside targets. There is still way to much risk in stocks. Trust me, the move higher could well be achieved but it may be equally short-lived and lead to a key reversal lower…. one so rapid it may be too short a window to capitalize on the movement. The battle rages on. We expect a move higher with a run to DOW 11000, though we are not assigning any extra participation by adding to stock portfolios. DOW 9200-9400 range has been our downside target, and appears to be postponed. The decision point has arrived. To all of our friends…. Cutler’s Blog is taking a week off!

CHART TO ANALYZE - (No Chart Today) –.

TODAY’S MUST READ COLUMN – Real World Assesment from Fred Barnes:

“The president's health plan won't solve a problem. It will be the start of bitter fights over funding and policy that will consume the nation for decades to come.”

The Health-Care Wars Are Only Beginning

“Enacting ObamaCare would be only the beginning. The controversy surrounding its passage and how it might work would preoccupy the president, Congress and millions of average Americans for the foreseeable future—and then some.”

TAKING A WEEK OFF / NO BLOG For a Full Week
NEXT BLOG UPDATE is Sunday Evening (march 28)

2010 Electorate: VOTERS of America UNITE – NO PROGRESSIVE LEFT BEHIND (in office)
American people MUST & WILL Isolate, Quarantine and VOTE OUT ALL Progressives & the Progressive Agenda must be derailed & DEEEEE-STRROOOOYYYED!

A MARXIST IN CONGRESS / YOU MUST SEE THIS CLIP!

What the heck is Castro-loving Marxist, Maxine Waters (watch short clip) doing in the US House of Representatives? / VOTE HER OUT!

Keep America STRONG! – Speak out against government corruption! – Keep LIBERTY and FREEDOM in your sights!

Reject the Progressive / Liberal Agenda. Reject Obama,Pelosi,Reid,Schumer,Soros,Podesta,Stern,Boxer,Frank,Dodd,Waters,Nadler,Wasserman-Schulz.

Reject SEIU, MOVE-ON-CON-JOB, ACORN, TIDES FOUNDATION. Reject Obamacare. Reject Fake-Science Global Warming & Cap&Fraud.

Next Blog Update ➜ a week from Sunday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2010-3-16 (Tuesday Evening Update)

MARCH MADNESS MARKET MANIA

INDUSTRIALS MAKE LATE PUSH GAINING 43 POINTS TO 10685

Meredith Whitney (Whitney Advisory Group) - CNBC Interview
Double-Dip for Housing Market (view this excellent interview here)

March 16 (Tuesday) – The stock market remains undaunted adding two more winning sessions this week. Now nearly all averages are poked into new recovery high zones save for the DOW INDUSTRIALS. The market appears invincible even though volumes remain light. Influencing markets today, the Housing Starts were down, Greece’s debt was upgraded and the FED Decision on interest rates was for no change. Nearly all market indexes and averages, save for the DOW INDUSTRIALS, have topped their January peaks. The S&P500 is now up in 12 of the past 13 trading sessions. The VIX (chart) fell again and sits slightly more than .50 from a new low, indicating lots of complacency defining current market risk as HIGH. NYSE Volume (4.82) expanded slightly as stock prices rose moderately into the closing bell. Market breadth was clearly positive on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line with approximately 2.7 winners for each losing stock. NASDAQ improved by .67% or 15 point to 2378. The DOLLAR (USD: 79.66) was under pressure throughout the day. GOLD had a huge day running higher by $19 to close at $1128. OIL was very strong and rocketed up $2 a barrel to $81.81. The NYSE High/Low Ratio / New Highs(545) vs New Lows(57) experienced a huge boost in New Highs, implying market internals were strong today.

Wednesday brings release of the new Producer Price Index(PPI). The stock market remains strongly overbought but has now tripped across key overhead resistance. This suggests that the critical short-term resolution is higher and that stock prices are embarking on a new leg to tackle the DOW 11000 century market. Unless there is a major reversal the rally continues. The battle is enjoined. The current 2 week period will determine if stocks continue higher and run to DOW 11000. DOW 9200-9400 range has been our downside target, but is starting to look postponed. The decision point has arrived.

(Special Interview to Watch) – Watch Clip Has fear retreated from the markets? / Paul Britton, of the Capstone Holdings Group, and Nouriel Roubini, of Roubini Global Economics, share their insight.

THERE WILL NO BLOG on WEDNESDAY
NEXT BLOG UPDATE is Thursday Evening

TODAY’S MUST READ COLUMN – HealthCare Con Debunked from Thomas Sowell:

“In a swindle that would make Bernie Madoff look like an amateur, Barack Obama has gotten a substantial segment of the population to believe that he can add millions of people to the government-insured rolls without increasing the already record-breaking federal deficit.”

Talking Points vs. Reality

“Fraud has been at the heart of this medical care takeover plan from day one. The succession of wholly arbitrary deadlines for rushing this massive legislation through, before anyone has time to read it all, serves no other purpose than to keep its specifics from being scrutinized-- or even recognized-- before it becomes a fait accompli and "the law of the land.”

A MARXIST IN CONGRESS / YOU MUST SEE THIS CLIP!

What the heck is Castro-loving Marxist, Maxine Waters (watch short clip) doing in the US House of Representatives? / VOTE HER OUT!

Next Blog Update ➜ Thursday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2010-3-14 (Sunday Evening Update)

MARCH MADNESS MARKET MANIA

DOW INDUSTRIALS EXTEND ADVANCE ANOTHER 12 POINTS TO 10624

Paul Schulte (Nomura International) - CNBC Interview
Equity Markets & Abundant Worldwide Liquidity (view this excellent interview here)

March 14 (Sunday) – Stocks closed out an up week on quiet note with most averages finishing either side of unchanged. Gains for the blue chips actually lagged broader market sectors for the full week. Nearly all market indexes and averages, save for the DOW INDUSTRIALS, have topped their January peaks. The S&P500 nearly concluded 11 consecutive up sessions but completed the day lower by a mere quarter of a point. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey reading of 72.5 was disappointing for investors and prevented further rally from materializing. The VIX (chart), a measure of market sentiment as expressed by volatility is hovering near lows, implying market risk is HIGH. NYSE Volume (5.51) expanded as stock prices rose slightly. Market breadth was marginally positive on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line with roughly 300 more winners than losers. NASDAQ was lower by a tiny .03% or 1 point to 2367. The DOLLAR (USD: 70.81) traded lower on positive economic reports from overseas. GOLD surprisingly traded lower with the usually supportive backdrop of a weak greenback and lost $8 to close at $1102. OIL took a break from its own recent strength and declines .78 a barrel to $81.08. The NYSE High/Low Ratio / New Highs(224/+26) vs New Lows(14/-6) improved on both ends.

There are a couple of economic reports out Monday, Industrial Production & Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The stock market is currently overbought and right smack into key overhead resistance. markets have entered the time frame we targeted for when the uptrend will be challenged. The battle is enjoined. The next 2 weeks, will in retrospect, determine if stocks continue higher and regain the next century mark at DOW 11000.... of if the buildup of enthusiasm has maxed itself out and created a negative divergence of momentum versus price to result in a decline back below the 10000 marker. DOW 9200-9400 range is downside target should a top form now. The decision point has arrived.

CHART TO ANALYZE – (Mega-Bears Overlay Chart) – courtesy of dshort.com. Note that another decision point is at hand. The time frame of the major turning points after the initial rallies from some of the worst Bull markets in history is also here.

DUE TO COMMITMENTS THERE WILL NO BLOG on MONDAY
NEXT BLOG UPDATE is Tuesday Evening

TODAY’S MUST READ COLUMN – Fiscal Common Sense from John Stossel:

Fiscal Responsibility is No Fun

A MARXIST IN CONGRESS / YOU MUST SEE THIS CLIP!

What the heck is Castro-loving Marxist, Maxine Waters (watch short clip) doing in the US House of Representatives? / VOTE HER OUT!

Next Blog Update ➜ Tuesday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2010-3-11 (Thursday Evening Update)

MARCH MADNESS MARKET MANIA

DOW INDUSTRIALS SCOOT HIGHER ADDING 44 POINTS TO 10611

Steve Forbes (CEO, Forbes) - CNBC Interview
Global Wealth & Global Socio-Economics (view this excellent interview here)

March 11 (Thursday) – Awfully quiet out there. Yeah, a little too quiet. Just like the way US soldiers felt as they dug into perimeters on the western front during WWII, the stock market has been eerily quiet. The VIX (chart), a measure of market volatility confirms the sound of silence and is back down to the level of January when the stock market made a top and launched into an 8% correction. After absorbing the disappointing Jobless Claims number, stocks traded listlessly back and forth across the unchanged line and finally crept higher in late going to close at the top of the days range. The S&P500 snuggled right up against its recent high. Most other averages, save for the DOW INDUSTRIALS, have already achieved recovery highs above their January peaks.

NYSE Volume (5.21) contracted as stock prices rose, a return to the negative divergence that has characterized the stock market for many months. Market breadth was slightly improved today with the NYSE Advance/Decline Line resulting in almost 600 more winners over losers. NASDAQ continued inching up by .40% or 9 points to 2368. The DOLLAR (USD: 80.28) was unable to sustain recent strength a traded moderately lower. GOLD started the day sharply lower again but scrambled back to the unchanged level to close at $1110. OIL has been pushing toward new highs and worked a little higher today to $82.29. The NYSE High/Low Ratio / New Highs(198) vs New Lows(20) remained steady.

Friday has a trio of early releases of economic reports that could break the logjam and trigger stocks to move one way or another. These are Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment and Business Inventories. The stock market is now challenging key resistance levels. The S&P500 is up 10 consecutive sessions…. a rare occurrence. These are inflection points consistent with our view that this week was to be a critical one to decide if there would be a continuation of up-trends or if the January top is an ominous foretelling of a reversal. While expecting a move down to the DOW 9200-9400 range, it became technically viable for such to be pushed out a few months if it does not kickstart during the final 2 weeks of March. We are fast approaching the decision point. As stated here recently, beware the Ides of March. Have a great weekend.

CHART TO ANALYZE – (GOLD Point&Figure Chart ) – . GOLD remains one of our positive investment themes. Here is the long-term historical Point & Figure chart dating back to 1985 courtesy of the-privateer.com. Observe the Double Bottom formed in the 1999-2001 window --- the end of a Mega-Bear Market that lasted 20 years. It took until 2008 until the precious metal finally crossed over its all-time high which was about $850 an ounce. Once through there, a signal was generated for another advancing phase and soon afterwards it hit $1000. The price declined just one time below the old high dropping to $705, which turned out to be the last great entry point for any who had been skeptical holdouts to put GOLD in investment portfolios. A resistance line had developed at the magical $1000 level. As you can see, a near-perfect Head-and-Shoulders Bottom was constructed. Once the market pushed up through that 'neckline' a new upleg was confirmed. My multi-year target was always presented as $1200 an ounce and to even my own amazement…. the rally was stonewalled right at that number. I then suggested a correction to the $1040 area was likely (it fell almost to that level) and determined the most likely outcome was for a trading range which would establish a new upper boundary close to $1330. The price has not only begun to work higher again but as you can discern from the P&F chart – the angle of the climb is getting steeper which means an acceleration to new highs may be at hand.

TODAY’S MUST READ COLUMN – Sobering Economic Analysis by Nouriel Roubini:

“The shape of the U.S. recovery isn't a sure thing yet.”

Beware of a Double-Dip Recession

“A slew of poor economic data over the past two weeks suggests that the U.S. economy is headed for a U-shaped recovery--at best--in 2010.”

A MARXIST IN CONGRESS / YOU MUST SEE THIS CLIP!

What the heck is Castro-loving Marxist, Maxine Waters (watch short clip) doing in the US House of Representatives? / VOTE HER OUT!

Next Blog Update ➜ Sunday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2010-3-9 (Tuesday Evening Update)

MARCH MADNESS MARKET MANIA

DOW EARNS BACK YESTERDAY’S LOSS UP 11 POINTS TO 10564

Abby Joseph Cohen (Goldman Sachs) - CNBC Interview
Stock Market Assessment (view this excellent interview here)

March 9 (Tuesday) – The stock market began the day quiet and indecisive but eventually forged higher. Although the rally wasn’t spectacular the tape was signaling that it wanted to accelerate…. But it never could. Late in the session the rally faded and went negative until some buying into the close tilted the averages positive. During the session a number of widely tracked market indexes poked into new recovery highs and at appears that the S&P is one of the last remaining holdouts. NYSE Volume (5.68) expanded pretty nicely today and while this helps work off some of the negative divergence that has built I volume trends, it’s got to be disappointing to the Bulls who expect increased activity to challenge and overtake overhead resistance. Market breadth was similar to yesterday with the NYSE Advance/Decline Line resulting in approx. 400 more stocks winning versus those losing. NASDAQ increased by .27% or 6 points to 2338. The DOLLAR (USD: 80.58) was firm most of the session but backed off from its best levels by the closing bell. GOLD at one point was off by $16 an ounce but staggered back to trim the loss to $3 to close at $1121. OIL slipped by .55 a barrel to $81.32. There was further reduction today in both New Highs & New Lows / NYSE High/Low Ratio / New Highs(179) vs New Lows(13).

The economic calendar has been light this week and early on Wednesday the only report will be Wholesale Trade figures while the Treasury Budget is to be released toward the end of the day. There are so many threatening factors lurking in the weeds to upside the financial markets but thus far nothing has tripped the market up. – the stock market is acting underwhelming this week in its hope to overcome the January high near 10700 to spur a new mini-leg up –– I have expected a move down to the DOW 9200-9400 area, but realized it may be pushed out a few months if it does not kickstart during the final 2 weeks of March. This is a critical week. We still give slight nod toward upside prospects short-term, though am not chasing stocks aggressively except for a quick trade. We also maintain our long standing view that 15% of investment portfolios should be positioned in GOLD and/or mining shares.

CHART TO ANALYZE – (no chart today) – .

TODAY’S MUST READ COLUMN – Economic History and Some Simple Math by Thomas Sowell:

“Abraham Lincoln once asked an audience how many legs a dog has, if you called the tail a leg?”

Stimulus or Sedative?

“But, in an atmosphere where nobody knows what the federal government is going to come up with next, people tend to hang on to their money until they have some idea of what the rules of the game are going to be.”

THERE WILL NO BLOG on WEDNESDAY
NEXT BLOG UPDATE is Thursday Evening

A MARXIST IN CONGRESS / YOU MUST SEE THIS CLIP!

What the heck is Castro-loving Marxist, Maxine Waters (watch short clip) doing in the US House of Representatives? / VOTE HER OUT!

Next Blog Update ➜ Thursday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2010-3-8 (Monday Evening Update)

MARCH MADNESS MARKET MANIA

DOW TRAILS OFF IN LIGHT TRADING DOWN 13 POINTS TO 10552

Mike Holland (Holland & Company) - CNBC Interview
Stock Market Outlook (view this excellent interview here)

March 8 (Monday) – Stocks waffled around in quiet non-directional trading and without much outside stimulus (I hate using that word). To say this was a day of consolidation after last week’s fantastic run up would be a fair assessment. Despite the small giveback in the blue chip DOW internals had a slight positive bias. NYSE Volume (4.24) contracted and this is better than a sudden rash of heavy selling off a strong week. Market breadth ended mildly positive on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line with about 500 more stocks gaining versus those losing in value. NASDAQ jumped .25% or 5 points to 2332. The DOLLAR (USD: 80.44) closed a few ticks off of unchanged. GOLD was the weak link today falling $12 to close at $1123. OIL crept a little higher closing at $81.73. There was modest reduction in both New Highs & New Lows / NYSE High/Low Ratio / New Highs(222) vs New Lows(18).

ONE-YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS LOW ESTABLISHED MARCH 9, 2009

Throughout history stock markets have had an interesting way of exhibiting synchronicity. With tomorrow’s 1-year anniversary of the financial meltdown low, there might be a tendency for the market to establish a new punctuation point at a level that is some 70% higher than those fateful, fearful lows. Symmetry is common given the propensity for markets to behave in cycles. We’ve been saying this is a very critical time frame as well as a battle zone for the technical durability of the Bull market rally that is now a year old. If this is truly a Bull cycle within a longer term Bear market then a punctuation point top can not be far in the offing, and maybe happened already in January. Still, we give the upside the benefit of the doubt and the market must prove itself by the weekend. – the stock market must overcome the January high near 10700 to catalyze a new mini-leg higher – with a run clear to 11000 or even 11500 – I still expect a down move eventually into the DOW 9200-9400 range, but could be pushed out a few months if it does not kickstart during the final 2 weeks of March. We give a slight nod toward upside prospects short-term, though still would not chase stocks aggressively except for a quick trade. Of course we also maintain our long standing view that 15% of investment portfolios should be positioned in GOLD and/or mining shares.

STOCK TRADE: VISA(V: $90.63) is a stock we played last year for a 60% gain from $50 to $80. Today we purchased some shares before it crossed above $90 for a trading position. It may be a statistical oddity only, but there’s an 85-90% probability level for stocks that cross above $90 for the first time to eventually reach $100. We will trade V with a $95 to $97 target and use a stop-loss at $87.

CHART TO ANALYZE – (no chart today) – .

TODAY’S MUST READ COLUMN – Humor Infused Reality by Rich Lowry:

“A year ago, President Barack Obama peered into our economic future and saw foam sealant and weatherstripping.”

Obama’s Stimulus & the Home Weatherization Lie

“This is the racket that Obama touts as a miraculous economic and environmental boon. Would you buy a health-care plan from this man?”

2010 Electorate: VOTERS of America UNITE – NO PROGRESSIVE LEFT BEHIND (in office)
The American people MUST & WILL Isolate, Quarantine and VOTE OUT ALL Progressives
and the Progressive Agenda must then be derailed and DEEEEEEE-STRROOOOOOYYYED!

A MARXIST IN CONGRESS / YOU MUST SEE THIS CLIP!

What the heck is Castro-loving Marxist, Maxine Waters (watch short clip) doing in the US House of Representatives? / VOTE HER OUT!

Next Blog Update ➜ Tuesday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2010-3-7 (Sunday Evening Update)

MARCH MADNESS MARKET MANIA

DOW INDUSTRIALS END THE WEEK STRONG UP 122 POINTS TO 10566

Jordan Kotick (Barclays Capital) - CNBC Interview
The Euro, Gold & Stocks (view this excellent interview here)

March 7 (Sunday) – Expectations for the stock market were subdued on Friday, but investors ended up buying stocks across the board, capping off a week of extraordinary gains. The monthly Employment Situation had been heavily downplayed citing weather issues affecting the numbers – thus, the slight improvement in the data sparked enthusiasm for the stock market. The appearance of progress toward resolving the financial burdens facing Greece also played into Bullish behavior. The rally was characterized by the broader indexes and secondary issues outperforming the main blue chip averages with some major indexes achieving minor breakouts to new recovery highs. NYSE Volume (4.82) expanded nicely on the up move and this is a change in recent trends and could be hinting that stocks are going to take a run at DOW 11000. Market breadth was very strong with the NYSE Advance/Decline Line exhibiting a powerful 5-to-1 ratio of rising issues. NASDAQ jumped 1.48% up 34 points to 2326. The DOLLAR (USD: 80.46) was slightly lower in quiet trading. GOLD added $2 to close at $1135. OIL had a nice move higher closing at $81.79. There was significant expansion in both New Highs & New Lows, especially the Highs - NYSE High/Low Ratio / New Highs(299) vs New Lows(23).

STOCK MARKET FACING CRITICAL TECHNICAL JUNCTURE WITH NEW UPISDE IMPLICATIONS

Coming into March it appeared stocks were poised to rally off the 8% correction and that the overall market had reached a critical juncture where important triggers could be ignited. We specified the Ides of March as a target for the rally which means this is the week where those challenges will be met. – The stock market is now short-term strongly overbought and leaning into critical overhead resistance – there remains some negative technical divergences, however, if those can be erased and if stocks can build upon current upside momentum the DOW the market will be able to overcome the January high 10700 area and establish a new mini-leg higher – that would mean a run clear to 11000 or even 11500 – While I still expect a downward move eventually into the DOW 9200-9400 range, such decline is on the verge of being pushed a few months out if it cannot begin during the final 2 weeks of March. We’re giving a slight nod toward the upside prospects short-term, though still would not chase the market aggressively here other than for a quick trade. Financials, healthcare and energy would be preferred areas to try something.

It’s impressive that stocks have help up in the face of continually weak economic data: Consumer confidence and sentiment have recently fallen. / After-tax personal incomes adjusted for inflation have flattened. / Sales of both new and existing homes recently stumbled. / Orders for most durable goods are down. / Manufacturing has slowed. / Jobless claims are higher. / Q4-GDP growth cam mostly from lower inventory liquidation and not from higher consumer spending. / Consumer Confidence fell to a 27-year low. / Existing home sales fell to a 7 month low. / Excluding Transportation, new orders for capital goods fell 2.5% while capital spending was down 3.5%.

CHART TO ANALYZE – (S&P 500 3-Year Chart) – This chart (courtesy of dshort.com) bespeaks our view that the stock market is very close to an inflection point. In other words, the momentum higher is facing numerous challenges (overbought, overhead resistance, negative divergences) and has afforded itself the ability to overcome these to spur a new leg, or min-leg higher. The long-term S&P chart as well as the 2 technical indicators beneath it are all close to decision points – places where either a success (reinforcing the uptrend to advance to new recovery highs) or a failure (prices turning lower again and reinforcing the divergences and painting increased probability that the January top may be the high for the stock market this year.

TODAY’S MUST READ COLUMN – Dissecting the Real Motives by Mark Steyn

“Is it worth reducing the next generation of Americans to indentured servitude
to pay for this poor New Yorker's dentured servitude?.”

Obamacare worth the price to Democrats

“Yes. Because government health care is not about health care, it's about government. Once you look at it that way, what the Dems are doing makes perfect sense. For them.”

2010 Electorate: VOTERS of America UNITE – NO PROGRESSIVE LEFT BEHIND (in office)

The American people MUST & WILL Isolate, Quarantine and VOTE OUT ALL Progressives
and the Progressive Agenda must then be DEEEEEEE-STRROOOOOOYYYED!

A MARXIST IN CONGRESS / YOU MUST SEE THIS CLIP!

What is heck is Castro-loving Marxist, Maxine Waters (watch short clip) doing in the US House of Representatives?

Next Blog Update ➜ Monday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2010-3-4 (Thursday Evening Update)

MARCH MADNESS MARKET MANIA

INDUSTRIALS ENJOY MILD MANNERED RALLY OF 47 POINTS TO 10444

Judd Gregg (Senator-NH) - CNBC Interview
Status of Healthcare Bill & more (view this excellent interview here)

March 4 (Thursday) – Stocks held a firm footing today after the rally paused briefly on Wednesday. The Jobless Claims were not great but par to expectations and Factory Orders were fairly positive but Pending Home Sales were weak. An significantly overbid debt offering by Greece was a step toward restoring confidence and securing help from other EU members. Stocks traded in a narrow range but closed near the highest intra-day levels. NYSE Volume (3.83/4.48) expanded moderately on today’s rally though trading activity is still sub par. Market breadth tilted mildly to the plus on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line with not quite a 3-to-2 ratio favoring winners. NASDAQ added 11 points to 2292. The DOLLAR (USD: 80.54) was strong again today as the Bank of England and ECB both decided to keep European interest rates steady. GOLD could not extend recent gains in the face of a strong greenback and lost $8 to close at $1138. OIL declined .38 to close at $80.49. There was a significant reduction in both New Highs & New Lows - NYSE High/Low Ratio / New Highs(66) vs New Lows(4). Stocks have taken to rally for 4 of 5 sessions in what is historically a favorable seasonal pattern – with the current rally now smacked right up into resistance and moderately overbought, the trigger point is perfectly arrange in anticipation of the Employment report / we view stocks as risky while testing upper resistance zones and anticipate a downward move to the DOW 9200-9400 range.

Friday is a huge day with the monthly Employment Situation report and much later on the Consumer Credit numbers. The stock market’s reaction to the jobs data will establish the tone for the week-ending trading session. Expectations have been tamped down given the interference potential of the drastic weather patterns last month. Clearly the Bulls want to break stocks to the upside, but can the economic news trigger this or is another disappointment in the wings?

CHART TO ANALYZE – (Special Vidclip Today) – CNBC’s Faber with Marc Faber (watch interview) Faber talks about the Euro debt issues, currencies, GOLD and stock market….

TODAY’S MUST READ COLUMN – Truth About Health Care Costs by Victor Davis Hanson:

“We have seen such naive attitudes before in the West.”

No Allies -- But Plenty of Enemies

“In other words, America and its alliances keep friends safe. And the world is more peaceful and prosperous than at any time in history because dozens of nations count on our support and share our values.”

YOU MUST SEE THIS CLIP! > OBAMA CAUGHT IN HUGE LIE! – YOU CAN KISS YOUR DOCTOR GOOD-BYE

"some of the provision that got snuck in might of violated that pledge (that you can keep your doctor!)"

Next Blog Update ➜ Sunday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2010-3-2 (Tuesday Evening Update)

MARCH MADNESS MARKET MANIA

DOW SQUEEKS BY WITH UPWARD NUDGE OF 2 POINTS TO 10405

Bob Doll (CIO, BlackRock) - CNBC Interview
Stock Market & Economic Outlook (view this excellent interview here)

March 2 (Tuesday) – Once again overseas markets had a positive leaning as US markets opened and the DOW INDUSTRIALS pushed higher by 50 points right from the gate. The rest of the session was more or less a struggle and eventually the market closed close to where it began. NYSE Volume (4.78) expanded today which might be a minor construct in terms of recent patterns, but the fact that the rally faltered in the presence of slightly greater trading activity is not much to go by in terms of looking fro the big turnaround spark. Market breadth did have a decent positive bias on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line with a 2.3-to-1 ratio favoring the gainers. NASDAQ was firmer today tacking on 7 points to 2280. The DOLLAR (USD: 80.49) started the session strong, particularly as the British Pound again fell to new lows, and the US currency lost its mojo, reversed direction and closed lower. It is anticipated that some measures pertaining to the financial situation in Greece could be announced tomorrow providing some clarity. GOLD had a very solid day gathering strength all session and ending higher by $17 to close at $1135. OIL also had a decent rise today though it traded well of its best levels still adding about $1.00 to close at $79.70. There was a miniscule change at the extremes with New Highs losing 10 units while New Lows added 2 - NYSE High/Low Ratio / New Highs(152) vs New Lows(11). Stocks remained firm and the underlying tone was solid despite the tiny movement in the DOW average – tomorrow will be an important session for the market to continue its rally and with momentum up near-term they should have no problem pushing prices higher hoping that the big economic news by Friday will trigger a move back to the January high / a failure tomorrow would be ominous – we continue to view stocks as risky while testing the upper resistance zones and look for a downward move to the DOW 9200-9400 range.

Wednesday brings the release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index as well as the job-cut and employment estimates from Challenger and ADP. These could have an impact on stock market direction, especially if the data indicates little or no visibility into improvement on the jobs front. Remain defensive on stocks and use high cash positions for portfolios / at minimum 50-60%.

CHART TO ANALYZE – (No Chart Today) – !

THERE WILL NO BLOG on WEDNESDAY
NEXT BLOG UPDATE is Thursday Evening

TODAY’S MUST READ COLUMN – Truth About Health Care Costs by Thomas Sowell:

“It is a great political game, but it does nothing to lower medical costs.”

Alice in Health Care

“Politicians who want a government monopoly on health insurance can easily get it, just by making it impossible for private insurance companies to charge enough to cover the costs mandated by politicians. The "public option" will then be the only option -- which is to say, we will no longer have any real option.”

In November VOTERS of America UNITE – NO PROGRESSIVE LEFT BEHIND (in office)
The American people MUST & WILL Isolate, Quarantine and VOTE OUT ALL Progressives
and the Progressive Agenda must then be DEEEEEEE-STRROOOOOOYYYED!

YOU MUST SEE THIS CLIP! > OBAMA CAUGHT IN HUGE LIE! – YOU CAN KISS YOUR DOCTOR GOOD-BYE

"some of the provision that got snuck in might of violated that pledge (that you can keep your doctor!)"

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2010-3-1 (Monday Evening Update)

MARCH MADNESS MARKET MANIA

DOW INDUSTRIALS EXTEND GAINS ADDING 78 POINTS TO 10403

Warren Buffet (CEO, Berkshire Hathaway) - CNBC Interview
Buffet on Healthcare / Focus on Costs (view this excellent interview here)

March 1 (Monday) – With a positive buzz that news of steps to resolve the Greece debt problems stocks opened higher in the US. An array of economic reports that were not very favorable, particularly Construction Spending and the ISM Manufacturing Index, did not deter the Bulls from pushing stock prices higher. Some enthusiasm was triggered by a list of M&A deals announced on Monday. Season factors also bode well during the early part of March. NYSE Volume (4.38) contracted again while stock prices advanced – this is a disturbing trend that if continued will no doubt end poorly as it leads to a clear downside reversal in the market. Market breadth did increase significantly with the NYSE Advance/Decline Line impressively securing a near 4-to-1 ratio favoring the winners. NASDAQ was among the strongest movers rising 1.58% on 35 points to 2273. The DOLLAR (USD: 80.77) was higher throughout the trading day though it backed off from the highest levels by the close. GOLD bounced around quietly and eventually ended off less than $1 to close at $1117. OIL was under pressure all day though upticked from its worst levels to lose .92 to close at $78.74. There was a decisive expansion of over 100 units added to the daily New Highs list while New Lows added 7 units - NYSE High/Low Ratio / New Highs(162) vs New Lows(9). It was not surprising to see the new month kick off with a friendly atmosphere for the markets but weak volume and recent patterns suggest listless movement in the face of overhead resistance and an increasingly overbought technical near-term condition -- a rising stock market on lower volume doesn’t automatically put an end to a rally, but it does imply that a sustainable advance is not likely – we view stocks as risky here and expecting an eventual decline to the DOW 9200-9400 range.

New data on Automobile Sales and Retail Chain Store Sales will offer further insight into the consumer and if there is evidence of a pickup of activity. Most signals point to lackluster activity and without any serious job gains it is unlikely for economic momentum to appear. I remain defensive on stocks and recommend high cash positions for portfolios, at minimum 50-60%.

Nancy Pelosi today suddenly stated that she identifies with some issues that the Tea-Party has been concerned about. This is an amazing turnaround for the Speaker who on many occassions promoted the silly notion that the Tea-Party was merely 'Astro-Turf' and not a legit movement consisting of every day hard working citizens, small business owners, stay-at-home-moms, the elderly and middle-class folks who simply want honesty, integrity, transparancy and fiscal responsibility from government. Perhaps Pelosi is feeling heat from her constituents who are awakening to the reality that her very comments helped trigger the Tea-Party into a tidal wave that intends to erase the Progressive agenda from Washington.

CHART TO ANALYZE – (No Chart Today) – !

TODAY’S MUST READ COLUMN – Reality Plain & Simple by Charles Krauthammer:

“The question is: How do you distinguish the idiosyncratic failure from the systemic -- for example, the single lemon that came off the auto assembly line versus an intrinsic problem inherent in that model's engineering? How do you separate one patient's physiology producing a drug side effect versus an intrinsic problem with a drug that makes it unacceptably dangerous.”

Toyota and the Price of Modernity

“…the intelligent response is not rage and retribution but sober remediation and recognition of the very high price we pay -- willingly pay -- for modernity with all its wondrous, dangerous bounty.”

YOU MUST SEE THIS CLIP! > OBAMA CAUGHT IN HUGE LIE! – YOU CAN KISS YOUR DOCTOR GOOD-BYE

"some of the provision that got snuck in might of violated that pledge (that you can keep your doctor!)"

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2010-2-28 (Sunday Evening Update)

MARCH MADNESS MARKET MANIA

DOW INDUSTRIALS END WEEK WITH QUIET GAIN OF 4 POINTS TO 10325

Dan Dimicco (CEO, Nucor) - CNBC Interview
Economic & Business Outlook (view this excellent interview here)

February 28 (Sunday) – Last week the stock market was unable to extend the upward momentum from the prior 2 weeks, but also wasn’t resuming the correction/decline with any conviction either. This higher GDP Revision didn’t produce any fireworks, perhaps because it was overshadowed by this decline in Existing Home Sales. Friday delivered mild gains in most market indexes. NYSE Volume (4.81) contracted on the small market advance – this weak activity has been ongoing for months and previously signaled the breakdown in momentum off the big market low nearly one year ago. Market breadth was measurably positive with the NYSE Advance/Decline Line producing a 3-to-2 ratio favoring winners. NASDAQ gained 4 points to 2238. The DOLLAR (USD: 80.33) traded to the downside all session. GOLD closed near its intra-day high rising $11 to close at $1118. OIL was strong and recovered much of the prior day’s loss tacking on$1.50 to $79.61. Internals improved slightly adding 2 to the Highs list and losing 2 off the lows list - NYSE High/Low Ratio / New Highs(58) vs New Lows(2). It was somewhat impressive that stocks were able to shake of some disturbing new economic numbers as well as continuing issues regarding European financial problems -- stocks are attempting to stabilize and could benefit from a positive seasonal period for the next week or two, though the market remains in a critical juncture with a high risk of falling to the DOW 9200-9400 range.

This is a huge week of economic reports and the balance of those numbers, especially the Friday Employment Situation data will likely determine if stocks are going to have a meaningful breakout toward the upper or lower boundaries of the recent range. Three (3) of these key economic reports are slated for Monday morning / Construction Spending, Personal Income & Spending and the ISM Manufacturing Index. There is also continuing concern about the EU debt problems (read the Mark Steyn piece below) which is pressuring the Euro and Pound and giving way to reinforce a view that GOLD is an excellent currency substitute for hedging investment portfolios. I have been a strong proponent of holding a minimum of 15% of assets in the precious metals and/or mining stocks.

CHART TO ANALYZE – (The Great Historical Bear Markets) – It’s been a few weeks since we’ve looked at the MEGA-BEARS comparative chart, courtesy of dshort.com. Holy smokes, look where today’s market is relative to where it was at this time after both the Crash of ’29 and the Japanese Collapse of ’89 – If the current US stock market, which has so many similarities to previous financial meltdowns, is going to replicate the historical Bear Market patterns – then we must be concerned that another down move in stocks could be staring us right in the face. An old market proverb – Beware the Ides of March – might be worthy of some extra respect this year!

TODAY’S MUST READ COLUMN – Plain Talk About America’s Current Path by Mark Steyn:

”People's sense of entitlement endures long after the entitlement has ceased to make sense.”

Our Own Greek Tragedy

“Welfare always breeds contempt, in nations as much as inner-city housing projects.

Think of Greece as California: Every year an irresponsible and corrupt bureaucracy awards itself higher pay and better benefits paid for by an ever-shrinking wealth-generating class. And think of Germany as one of the less profligate, still just about functioning corners of America such as my own state of New Hampshire: Responsibility doesn't pay. You'll wind up bailing out anyway. The problem is there are never enough of "the rich" to fund the entitlement state, because in the end, it disincentivizes everything from wealth creation to self-reliance to the basic survival instinct, as represented by the fertility rate. In Greece, they've run out Greeks, so they'll stick it to the Germans, like French farmers do. In Germany, the Germans have only been able to afford to subsidize French farming because they stick their defense tab to the Americans. And in America President Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are saying we need to paddle faster to catch up with the Greeks and Germans. What could go wrong?”

YOU MUST SEE THIS CLIP! > OBAMA CAUGHT IN HUGE LIE! – YOU CAN KISS YOUR DOCTOR GOOD-BYE

"some of the provision that got snuck in might of violated that pledge (that you can keep your doctor!)"

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2010-2-25 (Thursday Evening Update)

FEBRUARY MARKET MANIA

DOW INDUSTRIALS TAKE HIT BUT LIMIT IT TO 53 POINTS TO 10321

Jim Paulsen, Bob Doll, Robert Barbara () - CNBC Interview
Making Sense of the Markets (watch here)

February 25 (Thursday) – Stocks got off on the wrong foot today amplified by the very disappointing Jobless Claims numbers. At one point the DOW INDUSTRIALS were off almost 200 points but prices slowly clawed their way back and internals narrowed a wide negative gap by the final bell. NYSE Volume (4.96) expanded on the declining session after decreasing on the rally the day before – not a trend to support an advancing market long term. Market breadth was nearly even on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line and a vast improvement over the morning hours. NASDAQ was off 33 early on but improved enough to lose only 1 point to 2234. The DOLLAR (USD: 80.74) was barely changed today. GOLD started off lower but reversed midday and ended with a gain of $8 to close at $1106. OIL got hammered by $1.70 a barrel to $78.29. Internals produced a slight expansion of 2 units on each end of the NYSE High/Low Ratio / New Highs(53) vs New Lows(4). The market showed how vulnerable it is with the reaction to the jobs numbers but also demonstrated that buyers are still quite willing to purchase pullbacks -- stocks are faltering at this critical juncture and there’s a high risk of falling 900 points lower in the DOW.

The Friday economic releases include GDP, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment & Existing Home Sales. These will tell an important tale as to the condition of the economic recovery. There is an important opportunity for the Bulls to use today’s mild intra-day recovery as a springboard to revive upward momentum. Frankly though, internals imply that rallies at this point will be feeble and unable to spur a major advance. Have a great weekend!

CHART TO ANALYZE – (No Chart today) – ()

TODAY’S MUST READ COLUMN – Expose of American Liberal Media by Charlie Martin:

”Or perhaps, it’s just that the wrong people have turned out to be the bad guys.”

The World’s Biggest Story, Everywhere but Here

“It’s been called the “biggest scientific scandal in history.” It has everything to earn Pulitzer consideration: lies and misconduct in high places, political implications, even massive financial transactions that may or may not be legitimate or even legal. It’s big news … as long as you read the Telegraph, the Guardian, the London Times, or even major Indian papers. --- It’s no news at all if you read the U.S. mainstream media.”

YOU MUST SEE THIS CLIP! > OBAMA CAUGHT IN HUGE LIE! – YOU CAN KISS YOUR DOCTOR GOOD-BYE

"some of the provision that got snuck in might of violated that pledge (that you can keep your doctor!)"

Next Blog Update ➜ Sunday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2010-2-23 (Tuesday Evening Update)

FEBRUARY MARKET MANIA

INDUSTRIALS TAKE A DOWNWARD SPIN OF 100 POINTS TO 10282

Don Peebles (CEO, Peebles Corporation) - CNBC Interview
From Wall Street to Washington (watch here)

February 23 (Tuesday) – The stock market attempted a rebound in the early minutes but was turned back when Consumer Confidence data hit the newswire. The worst reading since 1983 comes at a time when a general opinion had formed that things are getting better in the economy. The DOW INDUSTRIALS fell just shay of a full percent but most of the broader indexes registered steeper declines. NYSE Volume (5.24) expanded with the selling and this is a return to the dynamics witnessed before the 4 week decline. Market breadth was decidedly negative with the NYSE Advance/Decline Line showing a ratio of 2.3-to-1 for losers over winners. NASDAQ was set back 28 points to 2213. The DOLLAR (USD: 80.89) was trading firm all day. GOLD gave back $9 to close at $1104. OIL was lower by almost $1.50 a barrel to $78.86. Internals weakened again on the NYSE High/Low Ratio / New Highs(25) vs New Lows(2). The market is showing its tail in the face of the resistance formed by the breakdown off the January high, not a good sign -- stocks are starting to buckle at this critical juncture and with today’s 100 point drop there remains serious risk of another 900 points lower in the DOW.

Wednesday produces data on New Home Sales which if lower, will be very disappointing at this stage. Fed Chairman Bernanke will be speaking before the House Committee on Financial Services. It is very important technically for stocks to rebound tomorrow or else the perception will grow that January’s high is growing in importance.

CHART TO ANALYZE – (No Chart today) – ()

TODAY’S MUST READ COLUMN – Truth About Housing Bubble Catalysts by Thomas Sowell:

“It's not that politicians never learn. They learn how much they can get away with, when they can blame others.”

Economic Whodunit

“If the housing boom was so localized, how did this become a national problem? Because the money that financed housing in areas with housing price booms was supplied by financial institutions across the country and even across the ocean.

Mortgages made in California were sold to nationwide financial institutions, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and to firms in Wall Street which bundled thousands of these mortgages into financial securities that were sold nationally and internationally. The problem was that, not only were these mortgages based on housing prices inflated by the Federal Reserve's low-interest rate policies, many of the home buyers had been granted mortgages under federal government pressures on lenders to lend to people who would not ordinarily qualify, whether because of low income, bad credit history or other factors likely to make them bigger credit risks.

This was not something that federal regulatory agencies permitted. It was something that federal regulatory agencies-- under pressure from politicians-- pressured and threatened lenders into doing in the name of "affordable housing.”

THERE WILL NO BLOG on WEDNESDAY
NEXT BLOG UPDATE is Thursday Evening

YOU MUST SEE THIS CLIP! > OBAMA CAUGHT IN HUGE LIE! – YOU CAN KISS YOUR DOCTOR GOOD-BYE

"some of the provision that got snuck in might of violated that pledge (that you can keep your doctor!)"

Next Blog Update ➜ Thursday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2010-2-22 (Monday Evening Update)

FEBRUARY MARKET MANIA

DOW GIVES WAY IN FINAL 30 MINUTES FALLING 19 POINTS TO 10383

Sandy Jadeja (Capital Market Services) - CNBC Interview
Technicals: FTSE 100 / DOW / OIL (watch here)

February 22 (Monday) – Stocks worked very hard to extend the current winning streak but after treading around the unchanged level during the trading day some late selling ended the string. Action was mild and while most groups were not major movers the banking sector was quite strong while the energy issues were decidedly weak, despite an $11 billion takeover deal by Schlumberger(SLB: $61.57) for Smith Intl(SII: $41.03). NYSE Volume (4.34) decreased slightly in the uneventful session. Market breadth was even-steven on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line with winners ahead of losers by only 40 stocks. NASDAQ slipped just 1 point to 2242. The DOLLAR (USD: 80.52) also had a quiet day and was little changed. GOLD declined $4 to close at $1113. OIL crept higher by .20 a barrel to $80.20. Internals backed off slightly from Friday on the NYSE High/Low Ratio on the NYSE / New Highs(61) vs New Lows(4). The stock market has stalled at critical overhead resistance --- stocks are trapped inside a critical juncture and there is serious risk of a 1000 point decline in the DOW if the up-move off the recent low fails in this general area.

On Tuesday we’ll see the next Consumer Confidence report and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index data. This starts off a series of economic updates that will build to a crescendo on Friday. Things were quiet regarding the status of the Greece debt situation though late in the day this story came out stating that Greece missed a deadline to produce certain documents related to its debt. While this may be a mere technicality, the concern about a series of debt dominoes in the EU is not something to be dismissed and hangs quietly over the financial markets like a Sword of Damocles.

CHART TO ANALYZE – (No Chart today) – ()

TODAY’S MUST READ COLUMN – Clearly Focused Commentary by Walter Russell Mead:

“As the global greens move from the denial stage of the grief process, brace yourself for some eloquent, petulant and arrogant rage. Tears will be shed and hands will be wrung. The world is stupid, uncaring, unworthy to be saved.”

How Al Gore Wrecked Planet Earth

“The greens claim to understand the dynamics of complex ecosystems better than the rest of humanity;
the simplistic assumptions and unrealistic strategies with which they’ve approached the complex ecosystem of international politics
don’t provide the dispassionate observer with much evidence in support of this claim.”

YOU MUST SEE THIS CLIP! > OBAMA CAUGHT IN HUGE LIE! – YOU CAN KISS YOUR DOCTOR GOOD-BYE

"some of the provision that got snuck in might of violated that pledge (that you can keep your doctor!)"

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2010-2-21 (Sunday Evening Update)

FEBRUARY MARKET MANIA

INDUSTRIALS CREEP HIGHER ON QUIET DAY UP 9 POINTS TO 10402

Lazlo Birinyi & Ashraf Laidi () - CNBC Interview
Time to Buy Equities? (watch here)

February 21 (Sunday) – Stocks closed out a very strong week with a muted gain on a quiet options expiration Friday. The key take away is how the market absorbed the surprise interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. After an early bout of selling the market stabilized and found its way back to the plus side. The tone was firm, the underpinnings were mildly positive and there was relief that the Consumer Price Index came in at a tame level. The issues of default by Greece faded into the background and investors evaluated the 4-week correction as an opportunity to purchase the market at a 7% discount from its recovery high in January. NYSE Volume (4.63) expanded slightly, but not impressively given the usual big bump in activity which typically coincides with options expirations. Market breadth was moderately positive on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line with winners ahead of losers by roughly 550 stock issues. NASDAQ edged up 2 points to 2243. The DOLLAR (USD: 80.58) was trading lower throughout the session. GOLD added $9 to close at $1117. OIL also produced a rally and climbed back toward the $80 level on a gain of .75 a barrel to $79.81. Internal improvement was a major theme this week exhibited again by Friday’s High/Low ratio on the NYSE / New Highs(71) vs New Lows(6). The market now confronts important overhead trendlines created by the breakdown off the January top --- stocks face a critical juncture offering a serious risk of about 1000 DOW points if the move off the recent low were to fail in this area.

No economic reports on Monday though Fed Chairman Bernanke and San Francisco Reserve President Janet Yellen will both be making speeches and these will be monitored for clues about new interest rate policy given last week’s ¼ point increase in the Discount Rate. Another important development is Obama’s upcoming meeting with Republicans to discuss Obamacare. Unfortunately, instead of starting from scratch he wants to work off one of the bills already existing, which obfuscates the true intent of bipartisanship. This could produce more contentiousness which could create too much uncertainty for a market that was very content to have the proposed healthcare legislation disappear. Another potential cause of apprehension by investors is the content of economic reports toward the end of the week especially the revised GDP, and the Jobless Claims which have remained frustratingly weak.

CHART TO ANALYZE – (UltraShort S&P500 Pro Shares / SDS: $34.75) – this is an interesting stock for technical review as it has carved out a classic pattern – note on the 2-year chart how the decline off the March 2009 high was very steep and then each subsequent phase of the decline followed ever shallower paths to new lows – if you draw a line across the recent lows back up through the bottoms of January 2009 and November 2008 it forms a critical long-term down-trending baseline – in the last 4 weeks the price turned up and broke above all overhead resistance lines – this suggests that shares are bottoming and preparing for a trend reversal soon – if that is true, there are significant implications – this stock represents a Bearish position on the stock market – in fact it is a double-leveraged ETF based on price action of the S&P 500 index – it performs opposite the stock market – in other words, if the technicals start pointing up for this stock, it means, by necessity, the stock market will then be into a downward movement again.

TODAY’S MUST READ COLUMN – Straight Talk on Financial Mess by Charles Munger:

A parable about how one nation came ot financial ruin.

Basically, It’s Over

“A couple of economic messes followed, during which every constituency tried to avoid hardship by deflecting it to others. Much counterproductive governmental action was taken, and the country's credit was reduced to tatters. Basicland is now under new management, using a new governmental system.”

YOU MUST SEE THIS CLIP! > OBAMA CAUGHT IN HUGE LIE! – YOU CAN KISS YOUR DOCTOR GOOD-BYE

"some of the provision that got snuck in might of violated that pledge (that you can keep your doctor!)"

Next Blog Update ➜ Monday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2010-2-18 (Thursday Evening Update)

FEBRUARY MARKET MANIA

INDUSTRIALS BUILD ON RECENT GAINS ADDING 83 POINTS TO 10392

Gov. Chris Christie (R- New Jersey) - CNBC Interview
New Fiscal Policy for New Jersey (watch here)

February 18 (Thursday) – The stock continued the rally off last weeks lows and has now established a market for testing. The rally was impressive in some ways but lacked the volume needed to establish breakthroughs for what is now bumping up to overhead resistance. The dreaded weekly Jobless Claims were disappointing and the 1.4% jump in Producer Prices was not friendly, but stocks still managed to produce a fairly positive session. NYSE Volume (4.46) contracted for the 2^nd day running putting a question mark on the validity of this week’s upside turnaround. Market breadth was up but not superb as the NYSE Advance/Decline Line saw winners lead losers by a 2-to-1 ratio. NASDAQ rose 15 points to 2241. The DOLLAR (USD: 79.94) was not very volatile bud ticked a little higher. GOLD enjoyed solid gain of $14 to close at $1122. OIL also had a near straight-up move since briefly breaking $70 and today added nearly $2 a barrel to $79.13. Internal improvement continue this week with this ratio on today’s NYSE / New Highs(80) vs New Lows(2). The stock has bumped overhead resistance and now faces the big test --- stocks are at a critical juncture and the next 2 weeks will determine which trend emerges.

Friday will offer new Consumer Price Index numbers. But the key will be how stocks react to the move after markets closed when the Federal Reserve raised the Discount Rate by ¼ point. Though this is not a major change and the accompanying statement by the Fed declared that they are not changing interest rate policy…. This will light a fire on the debate as to when rates will start to move higher in earnest. I would not be surprised to see sellers reappear on this coming into the weekend. Let’s all have a great one too!

CHART TO ANALYZE – (No Chart Today, but a solid interview) – Meredith Whitney on the Banking sector (watch)

TODAY’S MUST READ COLUMN – Perspective on Environmental Fanaticism by John Hayward:

“Our freedom is not for sale, and we reserve the right to defend it from theft.”

The Green Death

“The motivation behind Silent Spring, the suppression of nuclear power, the global-warming scam, and other outbreaks of environmentalist lunacy is the worship of centralized power and authority. The author, Rachel Carson, didn’t set out to kill sixty million people – she was a fanatical believer in the newly formed religion of radical environmentalism, whose body count comes from callousness, rather than blood thirst.”

YOU MUST SEE THIS CLIP! > OBAMA CAUGHT IN HUGE LIE! – YOU CAN KISS YOUR DOCTOR GOOD-BYE

"some of the provision that got snuck in might of violated that pledge (that you can keep your doctor!)"

Next Blog Update ➜ Sunday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2010-2-16 (Tuesday Evening Update)

FEBRUARY MARKET MANIA

INDUSTRIALS ENJOY POWERFUL SURGE OF 169 POINTS TO 10268

Katie Stockton (MKM Partners) - CNBC Interview
Technical View of Market (watch here)

February 16 (Tuesday) – The stock market got off on the right foot today and traded strong all session long. Slightly improved data from the Empire State Mfg Survey and Housing Market Index helped the market as well as a few takeover deals, one in the real estate sector and also decent earnings from Merck(MRK). Optimism grows that some solution to shore up potential debt default from Greece is around the corner. NYSE Volume (4.73) contracted on today’s advance a sign that technical traders did not jump in on the belief that last week’s low could have marked a turning point. Market breadth was rock solid on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line with winners leading losers by a powerful near a 5-to-1 ratio. NASDAQ jumped 30 points to 2214. The DOLLAR (USD: 79.62) was under heavy pressure and this probably transferred into the broad gains enjoyed in the financial markets and metals. GOLD surged with a $26 an ounce move to $1119. OIL also powered higher adding $3 a barrel to $77.12. Internal improvement has been building and today there was a clear bias on the NYSE / New Highs(66) vs New Lows(1). The stock market is now reaching overhead technical resistance and has moved into a moderately overbought condition --- stock market remains at a critical juncture - the next 2 weeks will determine the trend which is in a tug-o-war battle right now.

Wednesday provides important new economic data points with Housing Starts, Import & Export Prices and Industrial Production. Late in the day the FOMC Minutes will be released. Earnings reports from Deere(DE) and IAMGOLD(IAG) and after the close Hewlett-Packard(HPQ) will be closely evaluated.

CHART TO ANALYZE – (No Chart Today)

THERE WILL NO BLOG on WEDNESDAY
NEXT BLOG UPDATE is Thursday Evening

TODAY’S MUST READ COLUMN – Clearly Stated Wisdom by Thomas Sowell:

Magicians have long known that distracting an audience is the key to creating the illusion of magic. It is also the key to political magic.

Playing Freedom Cheap

“If eternal vigilance is the price of freedom, incessant distractions are the way that politicians take away our freedoms, in order to enhance their own power and longevity in office. Dire alarms and heady crusades are among the many distractions of our attention from the ever increasing ways that government finds to take away more of our money and more of our freedom.”

YOU MUST SEE THIS CLIP! > OBAMA CAUGHT IN HUGE LIE! – YOU CAN KISS YOUR DOCTOR GOOD-BYE

"some of the provision that got snuck in might of violated that pledge (that you can keep your doctor!)"

Next Blog Update ➜ Thursday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2010-2-15 (Monday Evening Update)

FEBRUARY MARKET MANIA

DOW FALTERS INTO WEEKEND FALLING 45 POINTS TO 10099

Nouriel Roubini (RGEmonitor.com) & Davis Malpass (Encima Global) - CNBC Interview
Sovereign Risks & Realities (watch part 1 here / part 2 here)

February 15 (Monday) – Stocks opened on a downtick and fell sharply though did cut losses in half by the end of Friday trading. A concern over debt that confronts Greece and several other EU members casts a darkening cloud on the horizon, rekindling trader nervousness. Downticks in the Consume Sentiment numbers weren’t much help. NYSE Volume (5.37) increased on the selloff a pattern which has dominated recent market behavior. Market breadth managed to hold slightly positive on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line with 200 more winners than losers. NASDAQ moved counter to the market trend pushing higher by 6 points to 2183. The DOLLAR (USD: 80.34) traded higher throughout the session. GOLD has advanced on Monday in open markets, but was virtually unchanged Friday closing down less than $1 to $1093. OIL declined $1.15 to $74.20. Internal strength was evidenced by a resurgence of new highs on the NYSE / New Highs(31) vs New Lows(1). The debate about whether the correction is over is heating up --- the market is clearly at a critical juncture, while it does still remain moderately oversold the technical patterns have mostly turned negative and economic data is not supporting a ‘V-shaped’ recovery that the stock market has been projecting.

On Tuesday we’ll get updates on International Capital Flows and the Empire State Mfg Survey. Investors need to see something supporting continuing economic strength lest DOW 10000 fails to hold, the level it has been clutching to. I am not recommending any new stock purchases. I continue to endorse holding GOLD positions as well as bearish equity plays in the form of ETF’s designed to move up when the market declines.

CHART TO ANALYZE – (No Chart Today)

TODAY’S MUST READ COLUMN – Brilliant Column by Mark Steyn:

Conformo-Radiclism.

Getting Our Groupthink On

“So the message from Audi isn't "You are a free man. Don't bend to the statist bullies," but "Resistance is futile. You might as well get with the program.” ….But it's awfully late in the day. The end is near, we face the final curtain, and it's an open question whether the spirit of the tea parties can triumph over the soporific, sophomoric, self-flattering conformism of that Audi ad: Groupthink compliance has never felt so right!

In November VOTERS of America UNITE – NO PROGRESSIVE LEFT BEHIND (IN OFFICE)
The American people MUST & WILL Isolate, Quarantine and VOTE OUT ALL Progressives
and the Progressive Agenda must then be DEEEEEEE-STRROOOOOOYYYED!

YOU MUST SEE THIS CLIP! > OBAMA CAUGHT IN HUGE LIE! – YOU CAN KISS YOUR DOCTOR GOOD-BYE

"some of the provision that got snuck in might of violated that pledge (that you can keep your doctor!)"

Next Blog Update ➜ Tuesday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2010-2-11 (Thursday Evening Update)

FEBRUARY MARKET MANIA

INDUSTRIALS CONTINUE REBOUND RUNNING UP 106 POINTS TO 10144

David Gerstenhaber (Argonaut Capital Management) - CNBC Interview
Economic Outlook (watch it here)

February 11 (Thursday) – After a mild setback on Wednesday stocks managed to reaccelerate off last Thursday’s intra-day low. Thursday started off hesitantly and a bout of selling emerged when it looked as if the EU had not finalized a deal to bolster Greece as had been originally reported overnight. A pleasant surprise from the dreaded weekly Jobless Claims report helped turn things around and stocks recovered nicely with the DOW up over 1% closing not far from the day’s best level. NYSE Volume (5.09) was less than inspiring today but volumes may be thrown off the last few days due to inclement weather (you know, all that global warming which Al Gore told us the debate was over). Market breadth was positive on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line resulting in a better than 3-to-1 ratio favoring winners. NASDAQ jumped 29 points to 2177. The DOLLAR was little change though had been up earlier in the session. GOLD had a big run closing up $24 to $1095. OIL rallied $.81 to $75.33. Internal strength was evidenced by a resurgence of new highs on the NYSE / New Highs(21) vs New Lows(4). The debate about whether the correction is over is heating up --- the since the Thursday low open’s the door for Bulls to test their resolve and make a push toward the recovery highs set 4 weeks ago, but overhead resistance in the 10350 area will be a tough nut to crack.

Friday is an important day for economic releases which include Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment and Business Inventories. The huge back-to-back snow storms are most certainly having a negative impact on the economy.

Here’s a link to a sensational must read op/ed written by Dennis Prager which exposes the hateful language
used to describe conservatives by NY Times theatre critic turned hatemonger columnist Frank Rich
Frank Rich and the State of Liberal Commentary

"I suspect that Times readers who love his columns ---- are generally people who read Frank Rich so as to have their hatreds reinforced, not for cogent arguments." "It is commonplace for liberals and leftists to avoid refuting conservative arguments and just dismiss the conservative with one of seven epithets: "Racist," "Bigoted," "Sexist," "Intolerant," and the three phobias: "Homophobic," Xenophobic," "Islamaphobic."

Such ad hominem dismissals of conservatives and their arguments testify to the shallowness of those using these terms, meaning, unfortunately, most mainstream commentators and spokesmen on the left. The fact is that epithets substitute for thought -- and at the same time render it easy to write a left-wing column. It is the Frank Rich Formula: make believe the other side has no thoughtful argument, offer no argument of your own and debase your opponents."

CHART TO ANALYZE – (No Chart Today)

TODAY’S MUST READ COLUMN – Cutting Through Confusion by Mark Davis:

The Tea Parties Are United in Favor of Limited, Responsible Government.

What the Tea Party Movement Is -- And Isn’t

”The sound we are hearing is the proverbial camel's back breaking after years of reckless spending, punitive taxation and usurpations of liberty that have crippled every citizen's opportunity to enjoy the full promise of what America is supposed to be about: freedom and opportunity, with the least government necessary to maintain an ordered society. -- The people drifting toward the Tea Party movement are not extreme. They are, in fact, fighting extremism - the extremism that has brought us a government that takes far too much, spends far too much and runs our lives far too much.”

The American people MUST & WILL Isolate, Quarantine and VOTE OUT ALL Progressives -
and the Progressive Agenda must then be DEEEEEEE-STRROOOOOOYYYED!

YOU MUST SEE THIS CLIP! > OBAMA CAUGHT IN HUGE LIE! – YOU CAN KISS YOUR DOCTOR GOOD-BYE

"some of the provision that got snuck in might of violated that pledge (that you can keep your doctor!)"

Keep America strong! – Speak out against government corruption! – Keep Liberty and Freedom in your sights!

Reject the Progressive / Liberal Agenda. Reject Obama,Pelosi,Reid,Schumer,Soros,Podesta,Stern,Boxer,Frank,Dodd,Waters,Nadler,Wasserman-Schulz.

Reject SEIU, MOVE-ON-CON-JOB, ACORN, TIDES FOUNDATION. Reject Obamacare. Reject Fake-Science Global Warning & Cap&Fraud.

Next Blog Update ➜ Sunday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2010-2-9 (Tuesday Evening Update)

FEBRUARY MARKET MANIA

DOW INDUSTRIALS REVERSE DIRECTION ADD 150 POINTS TO 10058

Byron Wein (Blackstone Group) - CNBC Interview
Market Outlook (watch it here)

February 9 (Tuesday) – Helped by a serious oversold technical condition and rumors that Germany would step up to bail Greece out of financial woes the stock market kicked into high upside gear. Though there were several volleys up and down which reached a 220 point again at one point stocks still produced a solid winning session. NYSE Volume (5.78) increased significantly today and is showing an initial sign that investors see the pullback as a correction only and not a major market turn. Market breadth was positive on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line resulting in a better than 3-to-1 ratio favoring winners. NASDAQ lagged today’s big rally but till produced a 1.17% gain on 24 points to 2150. The DOLLAR sold off sharply after producing good recent gains. GOLD had a nice session putting together a move of $15 to $1076. OIL also rallied sharply adding nearly $2 a barrel to $73.84. It was an even balance with only a few issues reaching new highs or lows on the NYSE / New Lows(9) vs New Highs(7). The big gains across the board market spectrum reduces the short-term oversold technical condition, while the intra-day low on Friday is starting to look like the start of a decent base of short-term support --- the rally back above DOW 10000 was easily expected / now the test is to see if there is follow through or if this move peters out, quickly returning to the downtrend in force.

There are several key economic to be released over the next few days including International Trade, Retail Sales, Business Inventories and the dreaded weekly Jobless Claim.. Many earnings reports will stream out during the week with important releases the next two days from Dean Foods(DF), Wyndham Worldwide(WYN), Viacom(VIA), AutoNation(AN), Marriott Intl(MAR) and VF Corp(VFC) are among those that will be under the microscope.

CHART TO ANALYZE – (No Chart Today)

TODAY’S MUST READ COLUMN – Sagacious Mind-Opening Piece by Victor Davis Hanson:

We all need government for defense, security, and infrastructure. But the more of it, the more dangerous — and creepy — our lives become.

Why Fear Big Government?

”Here are the apparent protocols of such big government socialism: no one believes in it; everyone seeks to cheat the system and others in it; no one wishes to criticize the system when it is easier to con it;”

THERE WILL NO BLOG on WEDNESDAY
NEXT BLOG UPDATE is Thursday Evening