TheWinnersForum.com - Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #6 --- 10/8/09 thru 1/1/10)

Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #6 --- 10/8/09 thru 1/1/10)

Written by California Glenn

Cutler's Stock Market Blog

WELCOME BACK!

Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #1) Nov 27, 2008 thru Feb 12, 2009)
Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #2) Feb 11, 2009 thru Mar 19, 2009)
Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #3) Mar 18, 2009 thru May 03, 2009)
Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #4) May 04, 2009 thru Jul 06, 2009)
Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #5) Jul 05, 2009 thru Oct 08, 2009)

➜ ➜ HERE IS MY TAKE ON CRAMER vs STEWART

MARKET MANIA

2009-12-29 (Tuesday Evening Update)

DECEMBER MARKET MANIA

INDUSTRIALS DO NOTHING IN LIGHT TRADING OFF 1 POINT TO 10545

Carter Worth (Oppenheimer Asset Management) – CNBC Interview
Reading the Charts (watch it here)

December 29 (Tuesday) – Not much happened in the stock market today. There was not even much reaction to economic reports despite the super thin trading markets. The DOW INDUSTRIALS had limited movement throughout the day closed just a shade below where it started. Volume remained light. Breadth was neutral on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line with about 60 more losers than gainers. NASDAQ fell 2 points to 2288. The DOLLAR started lower but reversed to work higher by the close. GOLD again traded down falling by $11 to $1096. OIL did not change much on the session adding about .10 a barrel to $78.87.

At some point the market is going to react to something to break out of the narrow recent trading range. This may not occur before the year winds down. The Chicago PMI will likely have no more impact on stock prices than any of the data released today. The government has issued a blank check of support to Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) which should have raised red flags about the underlying deterioration of the mortgage market, but for now, investors seem content to rejoice in complacency. With nothing new to analyze and several red flags rising in investor sentiment we find no reason to list the problems underlying the market, suffice it just to repeat our view that risk for equities has risen significantly. It’s time to take the rest of the year off – give thanks for our blessings, our health and our fortunes in the market (up 48% this year). Best to one and all and remember – don’t drink and drive!

MUST READ! – Top-Notch Column by Thomas Sowell: Unhealthy Arrogance

{ In a sense, this administration is only the end result of a long social process that includes raising successive generations with dumbed-down education in schools and colleges that have become indoctrination centers for the visions of the left. Our education system has turned out many people who have never heard any other vision and who can only learn what is wrong with the prevailing vision from bitter experience. }

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE – BEST WISHES FOR 2010

THERE WILL NO BLOG for the balance of the week
NEXT BLOG UPDATE is Sunday Evening

Keep America strong! – Speak out against government corruption! – Keep Liberty and Freedom in your sights!

Reject the Progressive / Liberal Agenda. Reject Obama,Pelosi,Reid,Schumer,Soros,Podesta,Stern,Boxer,Dodd,Waters,Nadler,Wasserman-Schulz.

Reject SEIU, MOVE-ON-CON-JOB, ACORN, TIDES FOUNDATION. Reject Obamacare. Reject Fake-Science Global Warning & Cap&Fraud.

Next Blog Update ➜ Sunday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2009-12-28 (Monday Evening Update)

DECEMBER MARKET MANIA

INDUSTRIALS PUSH HIGHER INTO YEAR-END 27 POINTS TO 10547

Jason Trennert (Strategis Research Partners) – CNBC Interview
2010 Markets Outlook (watch it here)

December 28 (Monday) – Stocks crept higher again today as volume was paltry. There wasn’t much to catalyze movement one way or the other. The only discernment ‘event’ was a brief and mild down move when Al-Qaida took credit for the terror attempt on the flight into Detroit on XMAS day. Traditionally, year-end currents are favorable for stocks and the quietness in trading also implies a drift higher. The DOW INDUSTRIALS wandered across the unchanged level many times before a very late push up in thin markets produced the positive close. Volume continues to be sub par and this is a continuing concern as it fosters a lengthy negative divergence which is not a good technical development. Breadth was neutral on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line with maybe 80 more winners than losers. NASDAQ added 5 points to 2291. The DOLLAR was little changed and the debate grows as to whether the bottom or a bottom of some meaning has been put in place recently. GOLD had a $12 trading range today and closed near the mid-point, about $1 higher to $1106. OIL continued to build on recent gains closing at $78.53.

Tomorrow should be another light trading session. The volatility is likely to increase given the release of economic information. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence & State Street Investor Confidence Index will probably impact trading and cause a bigger move after today’s quiet session. While it appears stock prices are likely to sneak up as money managers press to close out calendar 2009 on a positive note – we have already taken significant defensive positions in anticipation of a potential trend reversal for stocks soon.

MUST SEE! – Janet Napolitano’s Ultimate Spin-Job: CNN Interview: “The System Worked”

{ Jonah Goldberg’s blog ‘Fire Napolitano’ }

Incompetence has reached new levels under the current administration. Do you feel safe?

I’m not sure if the brief reactionary decline in stocks today was really attributable to the terrorists claiming credit for the botched attack, or if it was really a natural reflex to a growing realization that America has a lot of clay-for-brains people in positions of high authority and responsibility. Long ago we pointed out how this administration has overloaded itself with under qualified people surrounding the president, including Napolitano and Sebelius to name two. Our Homeland Security chief said that our ‘systems worked’ on many TV networks before backtracking her statement to admit that a failed detonator and an alert passenger are not signs of a working system. Of course the entire mentality of the Obama administration employs a false 'narrative' that there is no war on terror and that these are all isolated events. That’s not a credible viewpoint, and this deception is even more exposed as failed thinking considering - (1) Al-Qaida has credited itself with the recent attack – and (2) the Ft. Hood murdered had clear links to high profile terrorists.

The Progressives/Liberals have written and tried to indoctrinate the country with a false narrative about American aggression and how we ourselves are to blame for the will of terrorists to attack freedom and democracy. I never believed this poppycock and many Americans are waking up to the self-delusions of it. The fact is – people want to destroy us – there are terrorists out there who are organized and we must acknowledge that the ‘War on Terror’ is a long term affair that we cannot turn our backs on. Maybe these knuckleheads in Washington, Obama included, will wake up and smell the coffee. They may have political reasons to stand behind their own ‘false narratives’ that avoid truth. We as a nation cannot afford that mentality any longer. The White House needs to stop focusing on intimidating our CIA, tacking ridiculous action against our Navy Seals, and cease the shutdown of Gitmo, the most sensible place in the world to place these vicious killers. In other words, the Obama doctrine has it all wrong on National Security for America.

Keep America strong! – Speak out against government corruption! – Keep Liberty and Freedom in your sights!

Reject the Progressive / Liberal Agenda. Reject Obama,Pelosi,Reid,Schumer,Soros,Podesta,Stern,Boxer,Dodd,Waters,Nadler,Wasserman-Schulz.

Reject SEIU, MOVE-ON-CON-JOB, ACORN, TIDES FOUNDATION. Reject Obamacare. Reject Fake-Science Global Warning & Cap&Fraud.

Next Blog Update ➜ Tuesday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2009-12-27 (Sunday Evening Update)

DECEMBER MARKET MANIA

INDUSTRIALS CLEAR NEW 2009 HIGH BY RISING 53 POINTS TO 10520

Jordan Kotick (Barclays Capital) – CNBC Market Technicals
2010 Markets Outlook - rates going higher (watch it here)

December 27 (Sunday) – Stocks trended higher throughout the holiday shortened week and now enters what historically produces an 80% chance of higher prices through the final trading days of 2009. Seasonal patterns have not followed historical patterns this year, but expectations are high that the final trading week will present a move to new recovery highs for 2009. There are no economic reports on Monday to influence traders and there is great motivation to push stocks up for money managers to close out their ’09 books with maximum returns for their investors.

On Thursday the DOW INDUSTRIALS danced higher by 53 points on very light trading. Volume has been sub par for a few months now and while optimism continues increasing on a parallel path to stock prices, the negative divergence of low trading activity is not a positive indicator. Breadth was strong on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line by a 3-to-1 ratio. NASDAQ also worked higher by 16 points to 2285. The DOLLAR seems to have a reached a decision point which can determine if recent strength is just a blip or a serious turnaround from its long downward path. GOLD has been under great pressure lately but managed to find support to add $18 to $1105. OIL also reversed recent weakness and rebounded $1.00+ to close at $77.75.

Meanwhile the Senate (Harry Reid) used skillful bribery to get the 60 votes needed to pass Obamacare. The bill now goes to conference. There is no question that the healthcare bill is not only a threat to freedom and to quality healthcare, but it is also an economic threat. The healthcare stocks, insurance, HMOs’ etc. have actually rallied strongly given that currently no public option exists in the Senate version. However, House Progressives wants government run healthcare, actually they want single-payer healthcare, and any such prospect could set those stocks backwards. Mark Steyn wrote this brilliant column this weekend: Cross the River, Burn the Bridge.

So we look for stock prices to continue higher into the New Year. If this were not to happen, historical evidence suggests that would be an indicator for a poor market in 2010. The 2^nd year of a presidential cycle is also notorious for producing down markets. This chart (courtesy dshort.com) compares today’s market action to action following the Crash of ’29 & the Japanese Top of 1989. Clearly, this depicts an important time frame has arrived for the current rally.

MUST READ! - Excellent Column by Victor Davis Hanson: War Against the Wannabe Rich

{ Yet continue to punish and demonize them, and the country will grind to a halt — as we are seeing now. }

THE YEAR IN REVIEW

*** THE FAILURE OF MEDIA in 2009 ***

Integrity in journalism is defined by either of 2 specific positions:
1) Covering a story or…. 2) Covering-up a story (hiding or distorting TRUTH for political bias)

By K. Daniel Glover
Watch the Decline: The Media Lowlights of 2009

Next Blog Update ➜ Monday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2009-12-21 (Monday Evening Update)

DECEMBER MARKET MANIA

DOW INDUSTRIALS SURGE QUICKLY ENDING UP 85 POINTS TO 10414

Gary Kaminsky & Bob Doll – CNBC Market Roundtable
Markets Outlook (watch it here)

December 21 (Monday) – Stocks bolted out of the gate higher today, launching what could be the eagerly anticipated XMAS-rally. The DOW INDUSTRIALS pushed upwards of 130 points and held firm for the balance of the session, though gradual weakness cut the gain to 85 points. One spark was a buy recommendation on one of our recent stock recommendations, Alcoa(AA: $15.73) which jumped 8% today on a Morgan Stanley recommendation. Volume decreased dramatically from the quadruple witching spike on Friday. Breadth was net positive on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line by a 2.5-to-1 ratio. NASDAQ seems to have returned to a leadership role with strength in the technology sector, today adding (1.17%) 26 points to 2237. The DOLLAR, is turning heads as it again tracked higher. GOLD was unable to resist the polar opposite pull of the currency and took another hard hit losing $20 to $1092. OIL also headed lower closing down .86 to close at $72.75.

There are several new economic reports out tomorrow including the Revised GDP, Existing Home Sales and the FHFA House Price Index. Stocks are now in one of the most favorable seasonal periods. Unless something hits the news wires to upset the apple cart, I’d expect the week to remain positive. Then again, 2010 might be another story entirely. I’m gonna take cover for the balance of this short week (1/2 day trading Thursday and no market on Friday). Blessings to one and all.

THERE WILL NO BLOG for the Balance of the Week
NEXT BLOG UPDATE is Sunday Evening

2010 Market Predictions - Predictions by Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners: Doug Kass’s 20 Surprises for 2010

{Kass offers his top 20 predictions for the upcoming year on topics including:
Stock Market, Gold, The Dollar, Interest Rates, Goldman Sachs, the Middle East and even Tiger Woods.}

*** MERRY CHRISTMAS ONE AND ALL ***

Keep America strong! – Speak out against government corruption! – Keep Liberty and Freedom in your sights!

Next Blog Update ➜ Sunday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2009-12-20 (Sunday Evening Update)

DECEMBER MARKET MANIA

DOW ADVANCES ONLY 20 POINTS TO 10328 ON EXPIRATION VOLUME

David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors – CNBC Interview
Markets Outlook (watch it here)

December 20 (Sunday) – With little else to trade on stocks were surprisingly listless, despite the influence of quadruple witching expiration. In fact, the DOW INDUSTRIALS would have closed virtually unchanged had there not been a slight upward bias to the pairing off of late trades. Volume increased significantly associated with the expiration of various derivatives, but that increase had little impact on price movement or volatility (the VIX, which reacts to volatility actually fell over 3% in trading). Breadth was moderately positive on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line with some 550 more winners than losers. NASDAQ was the one big upside highlight, influenced by a strong technology sector, adding (1.45%) 31 points to 2211. The DOLLAR, which has suddenly emerged with a tradable advance, tacked on small gains. GOLD again found itself able to separate itself from the currency strength to add $15 to $1113. OIL reacted to reports or Iranians inhabiting an Iraqi oil field jumped .71 to close at $73.36.

There are no economic reports scheduled for Monday. Interesting weekend developments could impact financial markets in various ways. World tensions have been heightened by Iranians crossing the Iraq boarder to occupy an oil field has raised concerns. The blizzard blast on the East Coast may not only affect energy markets, but as this is the final weekend before XMAS, it is a major concern for retailers. Then there is the Senate passage of the notorious Obamacare bill that the public overwhelmingly does not want. Given recent jitters showing up in the financial market and the weakening of market internals during 2 months of sideways movement, it will be interesting to see how financial markets deal with these new factors. Here is an updated look at the chart overlaying the current stock market period with the Mega-Bears of the past (courtesy of dshort.com)

CLIMATE-GATE - READ THIS! > Excellent Analysis by David Warren: What Copenhagen Exposed

{But even if they are able to stitch up a plastic-surgical agreement, we may well be experiencing, in Copenhagen, the event that puts an end to environmental scare-mongering for a generation. The perpetrators of this scare-mongering (and I have listed so many earlier examples in previous columns) have finally overplayed their hand.}

The best thing we can do is not to transfer wealth to corrupt third world countries, and not to continue the Obama policy of redistributing wealth while asserting policies that prioritize a single union (SEIU) above the interests of all Americans - but rather.... America should return to prioritizing capitalism, incentivizing wealth creation (by lowering corporate taxes and stopping inhibitive legislation - the cap&fraud scheme, trillion-$ gov't healthcare, card-check). And America should direct future wealth creation toward increasing innovation for energy alternatives (which is what we always naturally do - move excess capital to fund innovation). Such policy reverses will not only lead to better prospects for energy innovation (a much better and more productive use of capital than to hand our assets over to third world criminal thugs), but will also create much needed jobs in the process - real jobs - not gov't jobs.

Next Blog Update ➜ Monday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2009-12-17 (Thursday Evening Update)

DECEMBER MARKET MANIA

INDUSTRIALS TUMBLE ON MANY FACTORS OFF 132 POINTS TO 10308

Jordan Kotick, Barclays Capital – CNBC Interview
Charting the Markets (watch it here)

December 17 (Thursday) – Stocks looked week based on the pre-market futures and these very disappointing Jobless Claims numbers didn’t help. The Leading Economic Indicators rose a solid .9% and even that did not help turn the market around. Volume again increased with the selling, reinforcing the critical negative divergence between price and volume recently. Houston, we have a problem. Breadth was negative on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line by a net 2-to-q ratio toward losers. NASDAQ was hit for 26 points to 2180. The DOLLAR continued its sudden strength with a very brisk move higher. GOLD got clobbered by $40 to $1098. OIL was able to fight against the tide to close only down a penny to close at $72.65. There are no economic reports scheduled for Friday, which happens to be quadruple witching expiration. I’m thinking the reason I’ve become so defensive toward the equities market is starting to come to the forefront. Technically, there are potential serious breakdown points just below current levels. Let’s leave it there. Have a great weekend everyone!

Climate-Gate: I saw those crocodile tears from Liar of the House Nancy Pelosi when she was crying in front of the cameras about the Tea-Party movement (a very well behaved group). Not a word from her about the crazy violence and hostilities by the whacked-out, progressive/liberal nutjobs in Copenhagen. Total hypocrisy. Now the Russians claim that the data used to formulate global warming was manipulated. Al Gore and the climate alarmists are all just ClimateGate deniers. It turns out the real hero of the warm-mongers summit is Hugo Chavez. Read/watch this and try to keep your lunch down.

YOU MUST READ THIS! > Superb Article by George Will: When the Charm Rubs Off

{Therefore each incumbent Democrat is responsible for everything in the law.}

There a Republican candidate succeeded in nationalizing a state Senate race. Hugely outspent in a district in which Democrats have a lopsided registration advantage, the Republican won by 12 points a seat in Frankfort by running against Washington -- against Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and their health care legislation.

--- this is far more significant than the GOP victories in VA (by 20 points) and NJ (big liberal state) ---

Next Blog Update ➜ Sunday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2009-12-15 (Tuesday Evening Update)

DECEMBER MARKET MANIA

DOW CAN’T ESTABLISH TRACTION LOSING 49 POINTS TO 10452

Jim Chanos, Kynikos Associates – CNBC Interview
Market Risk / Shorting (watch it here)

December 15 (Tuesday) – Stocks stumbled from the outset though not as bad as one might have expected given the blowback possible from the disappointing economic reports. The Producer Price Index jumped a whopping 1.8% and talk of inflation fears returned to radar screens. The Empire State Manufacturing Index also had negative overtones from an unexpectedly large setback in the numbers. Volume jumped on the selling action, which is disturbing given the severe negative divergence between price and volume in the last few months. Breadth was weak on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line with roughly 600 more stock falling than rising. NASDAQ fell 11 points to 2201. The DOLLAR rallied strongly again and has pushed to its highest level in 8 weeks. GOLD slid hard again on the strong currency but recovered nicely after inflationary winds started blowing and finished lower by only $3 to $1123. OIL finally controlled its two weeks of bloodletting and rallied 1.18 to close at $70.69.

WEDNESDAY: Given the shocking expansion on the PPI today, the Consumer Price Index will be evaluated and scrutinized heavier than usual. Housing Starts will also be an important data point and finally, the most watched event will be the late afternoon release of the FOMC Meeting Announcement on interest rates and the explanation of the Fed’s posturing. I’d expect the market to react to the early economic reports, stabilize, and then inch higher into the Fed announcement. From there we could get a volatile whipsaw depending on the interpretation of comments as they relate to if/when rates may start to move higher. Recent comments by Bernanke have indicated low expectation for inflation and given the new PPI & CPI data, many eagerly await further commentary.

READ THIS ALERT ARTICLE! > by Ben Stein: What a Piece of Work

{ The Constitution is far more important, human freedom is far more important, than bowing down to the climate change gods with their smoke and mirrors. We are living in frightening times, and the ones who are the most frightening among us are, as usual, the ones pretending to save us. }

THERE WILL NO BLOG on WEDNESDAY
NEXT BLOG UPDATE is Thursday Evening

Next Blog Update ➜ Thursday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2009-12-14 (Monday Evening Update)

DECEMBER MARKET MANIA

DOW CREEPS HIGHER IN QUIET TRADE ADDING 29 POINTS TO 10501

Rep Paul Ryan, (R-WI) – CNBC Interview
US Becoming a European Welfare State (watch it here)

“The goal of government is no longer equalizing opportunity for individuals, but equalizing results for people’s lives.”

December 14 (Monday) – Monday’s stock had a decidedly positive tone despite no substantive economic news to react to. There was a whopper of a deal in the energy sector as Exxon Mobil(XOM: $72.83) will buy XTO Energy(XTO: $41.49) for $31 billion. A mildly positive market never gained traction in the DOW INDUSTRIALS but did improve internally throughout the session. Volume improved a bit, something which has been missing from recent market action. The breadth was firmly positive with the NYSE Advance/Decline Line finishing net plus by a 3-to-1 ratio. NASDAQ was one of the strongest sectors gaining a full percent and adding 21 points to 2212. The DOLLAR has enjoyed its best rally in many months lately but was unable to push higher today. GOLD finally turned things around and managed to climb $11 to $1127. OIL could not halt its recent slide despite commodities pushing mostly higher and fell for the 9^th straight day, and declining .35 to close at $69.51.

GOLD MARKET – THE BIG PICTURE: We’ve now witnessed a scary, rapid substantial correction in the precious metals. This full year chart of the SPDR Gold Shares(GLD: $110.24) illustrates the recent rapid drop. There is a tremendous support level in the 104 area, a worthy range of congestion that was established during October. Note how the price surged once it pushed up through that zone. Barring something from outer space, I’d recommend the 104-105 area to add to positions. My long-term target of $1200 was recently satisfied. I now calculate that GOLD will consolidate with support around $1040 and a new upper boundary which will extend to approximately $1330.

YOU MUST READ THIS! > Terrific Article by Dr Phillip Lloyd: End “authority” on climate change

{ The process is so flawed that the result is tantamount to fraud.

As an authority, the IPCC should be consigned to the scrapheap without delay. }

What was once a scientific endeavor, turned into a religion to drive toward money-hungry agenda for power -

worshipping at the altar of environmentalism.

Next Blog Update ➜ Tuesday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2009-12-13 (Sunday Evening Update)

DECEMBER MARKET MANIA

INDUSTRIALS ADD TO RECENT GAINS CLIMBING 65 POINTS TO 10471

Mohamed El-Erian, CEO, PIMCO – CNBC Interview
Financial Markets (watch it here)

December 13 (Sunday) – Friday’s stock market got a pre-XMAS boost from surprisingly stronger than expected Retail Sales numbers. The action was somewhat misleading in that other averages lagged the DOW and some even failed to make it to the plus side. Broader market averages were also mostly up, but to a lesser degree. Volume was very poor and this critical component has been thinning out even as stocks have held firm, one of the glaring negative divergences that has been constructed in this market. There was however, a positive breadth bias on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line with winners leading losers by a 2-to-1 ratio. NASDAQ did not participate as some technology stocks were under selling pressure and the index lost a fraction of a point closing at 2190. The DOLLAR continues its amazing strength and approached its November highs. GOLD remained in a steep correction that has now seen $100 chopped off the price as it fell another $15 to $1115. OIL has now fallen for eight straight trading session, something it has not done in more than half a decade….declining .67 to close at $69.76.

STOCK MARKET – THE BIG PICTURE: Everybody has a stock to recommend, an investment theme to play while many exude confidence that the stock market has much further upside in it. Maybe it does, I don’t know. But I don’t believe it and have pared back stock holdings significantly. One of the 2 stocks I felt worthy to mention for purchasing last week, ALCOA(AA: $14.61) had a super day jumping 8% on a positive research recommendation. But I digress. When characterizing the financial crisis of 2007/2008 we talk in terms of it being the worst since the Great Depression and the stock market as the worst since the Crash of ’29. It is hard to argue against those comments, though there are varying degrees to those perceptions.

When I look at this Bear Market historical comparison chart offered by dshort.com, I see that today’s recovery phase or ‘Bear Market bounce’ or ‘uptrend’, whatever you prefer, is now at a critical time juncture. Today’s market (blue) is laid over the other mega-bear markets, the 1989 collapse of the NIKKEI (red) and the Crash of ’29 (grey); plus, this special focus highlight of 4 Bear Market intersections adds the Tech Crash 2000 (green). You can click on the menu (horizontal above the chart) for differing presentations of it. They are self explanatory. We are nearing the time component when the recovery periods of those historical bear markets failed…. and led to another wave down. I am concerned about the prospects for the current stock market. My recommendations are to remain defensive, despite seasonal tendencies for stocks to go higher over the Dec/Jan period.

YOU MUST READ THIS! > Sensational Article by John Tamny: Obama’s 2008 Campaign: A Job Creation Lesson

this truth about the connection between business, profits, investment & jobs could not be stated any clearer....

{ There is no investment without profits, and there are no jobs without investment.

Healthcare mandates placed on businesses will not only raise the cost of hiring workers, they will also weigh on future returns on capital so important to investors.

If they would take the time to analyze what drove their success in politics, they might become better at fashioning policies that lean toward economic freedom, and which foster a business climate characterized by growth and low unemployment. }

Next Blog Update ➜ Monday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2009-12-10 (Thursday Evening Update)

DECEMBER MARKET MANIA

INDUSTRIALS SNAP HIGHER IN LIGHT TRADING UP 68 POINTS TO 10405

Jim Rogers, Private Investor – CNBC Interview
The Dollar, Commodities, Markets (watch it here)

December 10 (Thursday) – Stocks were able to shake off somewhat disappointing Jobless Claims numbers and surge to a 100+ point gain, but then thrashed around for the remainder of trading. There was clearly a positive tone to the tape and the DOW was able to hang onto two-thirds of its initial burst higher. Broader market averages were up to a lesser degree. Today’s Treasury auction was disappointing as indirect bidders purchased a smaller percentage of the offering as has been customary, a sign that foreigners are getting tired/scared of buying US debt? Volume continues lackluster and market internals are deteriorating. There was a positive bias on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line with 600 more stocks up versus lower. NASDAQ gained 7 points to 2190. The DOLLAR was little changed. GOLD halted its steep slide recovering $2 an ounce tot $1130. OIL has been on a min-freefall and temporarily dipped below $70 a barrel but returned to close at $70.54.

The final session of the market week will be filled with new data to digest. Retail Sales, Import & Export Prices, Consumer Sentiment and Business Inventories will provide much info to crunch down. This is the time when stocks are preparing for the annual Santa Claus rally. Given that the market has made no progress in a month, expectations are growing for some kind of upside breakout move during the pre-holiday sessions. Unless the Grinch has arrived early and says “a Merry Christmas I don’t think!” Have a great weekend everybody and makes sure you read the terrific interview below.

YOU MUST READ THIS!

Tremendous Interview by Jamie Glazov: Andrew Klavan: My Way Into and Out of the Left

{ But what a lot of people do is try to escape their sense of shame dishonestly by constructing elaborate moral frameworks that allow them to parade their virtue and their lavish repentance without any real inconvenience to themselves while simultaneously indulging in self-righteousness by condemning others for their impenitent evil. That’s the bad version of religion – the sort of religion Jesus came to dismantle. And that’s exactly the sort of religion leftism is: an elaborate system for hiding shame behind a cheap mask of virtue. That’s why they demonize any opposition. To them, we’re not just disagreeing with them, we’re threatening to tear off the mask of their virtue and reveal them to themselves. Which, without God or sufficient whiskey, would be unbearable. }

Next Blog Update ➜ Sunday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2009-12-8 (Tuesday Evening Update)

DECEMBER MARKET MANIA

INDUSTRIALS FALTER ON STRONG DOLLAR OFF 104 POINTS TO 10285

Meredith Whitney, Whitney Advisory Group – CNBC Interview
Economy & Financial Sector (watch it here)

December 8 (Tuesday) – With weakness in most overseas markets and then disappointing data points from 2 components of the DOW INUSTRIAL AVERAGE, McDonalds(MCD) and 3M Corp(MMM), stocks got off to a poor start and never got on track. There was an early push up and then some pull down but not much change at the end of the day. Obama gave another jobs plan speech with his speechifying rhetoric, but basically said nothing and the market didn’t rally. Volume which has been very light recently actually increased on this 1% decline today and that is a disconcerting observations. There was a negative tilt on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line by a better than 2-to-1 ratio. Despite the tiny gain in the DOW most other market averages closed lower. NASDAQ declined 16 points to 2172. The DOLLAR saw very strong trading; it’s 2^nd in three sessions. GOLD again reacted badly to currency strength and the metal cratered by $29 closing at $1128. OIL is really starting to hit the skids lower by another $1.30 to $72.61.

The tape did not have a great feel to it today. The last series of market highs was correlated with declining internal momentum. These days the Daily New High list does not even reach 30 issues. Yet, the amount of enthusiasm for this market does not wane. The only economic report tomorrow is on Wholesale Trade which will give data on recent business sales and inventory numbers. Typically the stock market is positive at this time of year, but I see too many technical problems, loss of momentum, negative divergences, and excessive optimism. All reasons why I remain negative on the market right now.

THIS IS A MUST READ! > Excellent Article by Thomas Sowell: Jobs or Snow Jobs?

{ Business-101 }
To create jobs, the country must be oriented toward wealth creation.
Government creates no wealth.
Transferring wealth is not creating wealth.
Uncertainty of unpredictable political experimentation makes employers reluctant to hire.

THERE WILL NO BLOG on WEDNESDAY
NEXT BLOG UPDATE is Thursday Evening

Next Blog Update ➜ Thursday Evening – You May Email Me at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2009-12-7 (Monday Evening Update)

DECEMBER MARKET MANIA

INDUSTRIALS CAN’T DECIDE DIRECTION ADDING 1 POINT TO 10390

Scott Redler, Investment Strategist, T3live.com – CNBC Interview
Buying GOLD on the Pullback (watch it here)

December 7 (Monday) – Unlike December 7, 1941, today was not a day that will live in infamy, at least not with respect to financial market activity. There was an early push up and then some pull down but not much change at the end of the day. Volume was light and the focus was on Bernanke’s talk where he affirmed that interest rates are likely to remain low for awhile. There was little else to talk about and tomorrow is equally void of new data points. Breadth held mildly positive on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line with winners outgaining poser by some 300 issues. Despite the tiny gain in the DOW most other market averages closed lower. NASDAQ slipped 4 points to 2189. The DOLLAR started out adding to its latest surge, an impressive 1-day move, but the momentum died and actually closed lower. GOLD was the mirror reverse of the greenback as it plunged at the open by $25 but scampered back to lose only $4 closing at $1158. OIL has now put together a 4-session losing streak falling about a buck and a half to $73.93.

Hopes of a XMAS rally should keep investors leaning on the buy button unless money managers feel the urge to lock in their spectacular annual gains after two years of negative returns. Seasonal patterns are favorable for equities, but then seasonal patterns have not been reliable this year. I expect the stock market to remain lackluster at least until Thursday when new Jobless Claims data is released. I remain defensive. As for precious metals, I would use any further weakness to add to positions or to purchase mining stocks if you are someone who has not participated in the GOLD multi-year uptrend. The back-to-back scary declines are classic Bull Market action.

Excellent Article by Michael Fumento: Where Did All The Warming Go?

(Bottom line: While Waxman-Markey and Mr. Obama's Copenhagen initiative would address global warming through costly carbon dioxide emissions reductions, we get no return on such an investment. Waxman-Markey would have so little effect on global climate that it's nothing more than a down payment as even the most zealous global warming crusaders concede. Just maybe, before we take out that mortgage with our struggling economy as collateral, we ought to see how the science develops. For those who say we can't afford to wait, the answer is we can't afford not to.)

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2009-12-6 (Sunday Evening Update)

DECEMBER MARKET MANIA

DOW SURGES BIG BUT CAN ONLY HOLD GAIN OF 22 POINTS TO 10388

Lynn Tilton, CEO, Patriarch Partners – CNBC Interview
Job Creation, Credit for Small & Middle Business (watch it here)

December 6 (Sunday) – On Friday the stock market opened with a powerful surge of 150+ points to a new recovery high, rising above the 10500 mark on economic news showing unemployment falling two-tenths to 10%. This was everything the Bulls needed to begin driving stock prices into another leg up. But unlike recent patterns this rally failed and 2 hours later the entire rally was erased and the DOW INDUSTRIALS were off 50 points and threatening a downside technical reversal that could drive the market lower, much lower. Buying in the final 90 minutes turned the average positive by the close. Still, one must wonder the message of a market that cannot sustain gains on good news, while it has been rallying on mixed news. Breadth was positive on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line but what started out as an eye-popping 10-to-1 ratio favoring winners, ended with a 2.3-to-1 ratio. NASDAQ which has been the strongest area lately gained a full percent adding 21 points to 2194. The DOLLAR attracted buyers from all corners and the well-known huge short position was under pressure to buy, creating the single best surge in the currency in recent memory. GOLD clearly suffered from the rising greenback and was clobbered by as much as $60 during the session but ended $46 lower at $1162. OIL could not hold early gains and closed $1 a barrel lower to $75.47.

With no economic reports to deal with, the stock market will be taking its cue from overseas action, especially how the US DOLLAR behaves. There is an overloaded short position in the currency and it would not take much to turn a big one-day move into a multi-day screamer. If this happens, GOLD will probably continue correcting sharply, though I believe recent signs to point out that linkage between the metal and the greenback is no longer a highly correlated direct inverse relationship, though it certainly acted that way Friday. I remain negative on equities; recommend only small exposure to stocks and mostly in defensive and high-yielding securities. I also believe having hedges and short positions, is warranted.

JOBS SUMMIT W/ NO JOBS EXPERTISE!

If I were President holding a jobs summit in the face of tenuous economic times (and in Obama’s case, he projects to have no clue that his policy agenda is full of anti-jobs proposals: Obamacare, Cap&Fraud, Card-Check), the first thing I’d do is invite folks that represent all corners of business, especially the small business community, the heart and sole of American employment. The largest representative of this small business engine, the Chamber of Commerce was not even invited to the great jobs summit. So who was there? Well, none other than the same worn out Progressives/Liberals/Marxists that have driven the failing economic agenda and the same socialist ideologues who authored and designed the incompetent stimulus package. To trot out these same cardboard-cutouts for a PR dog & pony show is laughable!

Obama and his progressive liberal friends are re-orienting and re-jiggering our entire country for the sole benefit of 2 million union members (SEIU) through his relationship with Andy Stern - this ties directly into ACORN (thugs/criminals) (and why Obama & Holder & Pelosi are protecting and covering-up for, not investigating that criminal enterprise) - it also ties into the global warming cultists, which is a documented fictional narrative designed to fool the public into thinking that somehow the notion of 'green' is a solution for an ailing economy when in fact, it is only a mechanism to transfer more wealth away from the true American creators and entrepreneurs, under the myth of 'saving the planet' --- this is part of their erroneous vision of "global world order" thru the UN (a joke!) and climate change (a big lie).

Who do you think was at the great Obama jobs summit this week? None other than John Podesta (heads extreme leftist group Center for American Progress), Andy Stern, SEIU leader, and other union members (since when have unions actually created jobs?), the Apollo Alliance was there (an extreme left wing political group that wrote that screwed-up stimulus package, in case you wondered why there is no real job creation from it - all that $$$$ was funneled to left wing activist groups, left wing causes and to regions that are democratic districts to prop up local politicians) - I wouldn't invite any of those folks to a legitimate jobs summit, not a single one! -- None of them know much about creating jobs!! - Even the whacked-out extreme left wing liberal propaganda NY-TIMES economist Paul Krugman was there, who never fails to bend over backwards to spin economic-speak toward a progressive radical goal. So much for the jobs summit!!! If I wanted the country to fail - those are the folks I'd invite!

Always remember as Obama said effusively emoted: "My agenda is SEIU's agenda" - never forget that - it is NOT America's agenda (watch clip) - once you understand this, you understand everything - watch the clip and note Obama’s unbridled passion for Andy Stern & SEIU - Obama didn't display that passion in his Afghan speech last week - where was Vince Lombardi? Lou Holtz? Scotty Bowman? Lou Piniella? Knute Rockne?

Tomorrow’s reports on the Employment Situation and Factory Orders are going to influence the tone of the week ending session. The White House Jobs Summit is too little too late and is a bit of a lark given a) the small business groups that were not represented and b) that the left-wing economists who have already given bad economic advice were there probably giving more bad advice and c) unless the President gets serious about jobs and knocks off job-killing programs like Obamacare and CAP&FRAUD it is hard to take this ‘summit’ as anything more than lip service.

THIS IS A MUST READ! > Excellent Article by Rep. John Linder: Climate Challenges

(There is no need for any climate treaty at Copenhagen. It is time to disband the U.N.'s self-serving and serially dishonest climate panel. Officially sponsored environmental extremism is a danger to our national security.)

Instead of destroying wealth in the name of a UN-led global Marxist movement which uses faux-science as a lever of indoctrination - we should be doing THE OPPOSITE. Investing in business. Reducing government involvement in our lives. Obviously, this positive direction is not going to happen under Obama, Pelosi, Reid, Podesta, Stern, Boxer, Schumer, etc. Americans must reject full out this brand of progressive liberal group-think.

There is no good reason to destroy massive amount of American wealth (what is left of it) and move to a worldwide Marxist government. All that America has been for 233 years, thrown away for a selfish, self-serving, statist political movement, by people who would HIDE from the responsibility of its negative outcomes on the populous!!!!

We don't ask society to make incredible sacrifices (like sterilization) based on the whimsical notion of a few scientists on 'population' that turns out to be totally false (ie; the ‘population bomb’ that was wrong). And we don't ask society, our entire country, to transfer its wealth on the back of a political steamroller based entirely on corrupt science. Even if there is global warming, we don't bankrupt the country to save 1-degree over 33 years. What if we spent all that money and it turns out the next ice age is on its way. Must we go down as having followed idiotic ideologues and their fully-indoctrinated robotic brainwashed followers?

We don't discourage efforts to make the planet better, cleaner. We do discourage society from narrow-minded political mandates behaving as lemmings, off a cliff, based on the fact that some (group-think) 'really and deeply believes in something with all of their heart.'

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2009-12-3 (Thursday Evening Update)

DECEMBER MARKET MANIA

DOW SINKS IN LATE TRADING CLOSING OFF 86 POINTS TO 10366

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner – CNBC Interview
TARP, Jobs, Economy (watch it here)

December 3 (Thursday) – Today’s was a classic buy-the-open and sell-the-close trading session. A quick rally of close to 50 points dissipated quickly and for 5 hours there was little price movement hovering around the unchanged level. The final 30 minute brought on steady selling driving the DOW INDUSTRIALS down over 100 points before improving ever so slightly. Jobless Claims were disappointing and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index took a step backwards. The economic data is more and more reflecting that economic recovery may be elusive and the jobs report tomorrow is likely to show another increase in unemployment, and the White House hinted as much today. No wonder markets got jittery going into the close. The continuation of technical negative divergences is disturbing. Breadth was negative on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line by a 2-to-1 ratio. NASDAQ held up better than other sectors but still declined 11 points to 2173. The DOLLAR hardly moved all session but did finish on a modest uptick. GOLD made another new all-time record high early on but then sold off to close $7 lower at $1208. OIL had a quiet trading range ending slightly lower to $76.46.

The stock market is looking more dangerous to me at present. I continue to de-emphasize equities, though maintaining holdings in the precious metals sector. I would only advise holding low risk stocks which might include SAIC(SAI), Alcoa(AA) and bearish plays such Ultra Short Real Estate(SRS). Have a great weekend!

Excellent Article by Nigel Lawson: ‘Saving’ the Planet Will Be the Real Disaster

(This is not science, politics or economics, but masochism.)

"The real disaster will be if we cede to politicians what the author calls the "licence to intrude" in everything we do by pretending to "save" a planet which no one has proved will be lost.."

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2009-12-1 (Tuesday Evening Update)

DECEMBER MARKET MANIA

DOW INDUSTRIALS FUELED HIGHER BY 126 POINTS TO 10471

GOLD HITS NEW ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH AT $1200

LASZLO BIRINYI – Biriny Associates
Very Bullish Market Outlook (watch it here)

December 1 (Tuesday) – Feeling that the all-clear signal had been given, stocks opened with a sharp burst higher today, trended up it’s intra-day high at midday to the tune of 1810 points and then slowly gave back some ground. The DOW INDUSTRIALS closed higher by 1.2% and the NYSE Composite was even stronger up 1.7%. Although the vibe was positive, the new recovery high in a few of the key averages have been unaccompanied by the more broadly based indexes, a continuation of the negative divergences. In other words, even though the market gives the impression that it is only going up, internals are still breaking down. Breadth was nicely positive on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line with net gainers leading losers by a 4-to-1 ratio. NASDAQ jumped 31 points to 2175. The DOLLAR was very week and is again on a path toward multi-year lows. GOLD benefited from the weak currency making a new all-time record high above the $1200 mark, but retreated a bit to close up $17 to $1197. OIL also participated in the today’s rally adding more than $1 a barrel to $78.37.

Economic reports were mixed, but mostly weaker except for the Pending Home Sales which benefited form low interest rates. Tomorrow provides another important list of new data points including: Productivity & Costs, ISM Non-Mfg Index and the dreaded weekly Jobless claims.

GOLD has finally touched my long standing target of $1200. It took awhile but it finally got there. What now? I believe the up-trend for the precious metal remains in tact. When looking at the big picture, we know have a massive support area down at the $850 levels and a fairly strong interim base of support right near the $1000 mark. Simple technical projections (25-year point & figure chart) put the upside for the current rally somewhere in the $1300-$1330 range. That should be a no-brainer.

Excellent Article by Thomas Sowell: Random Thoughts on the Passing Scene

(Some people are so busy being clever that they don't have time enough to be wise.)

Stepping beyond your competence can be like stepping off a cliff. Too many people with brilliance and talent within some field do not realize how ignorant-- or, worse yet, misinformed -- they are when talking like philosopher-kings about other things. There has probably never before been as drastic a decline in the quality of vice presidents as there has been when Dick Cheney was replaced by Joe Biden. Yet the New York Times is lionizing Biden as a wise counselor to President Obama. When you support the liberal agenda, that makes you brilliant ex-officio in the media, whether or not you are vice president -- and whether or not you have even common sense.

THERE WILL NO BLOG on WEDNESDAY
NEXT BLOG UPDATE is Thursday Evening

Keep America strong! – Speak out against government corruption! – Keep Liberty and Freedom in your sights!

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2009-11-30 (Monday Evening Update)

DECEMBER MARKET MANIA

DOW INDUSTRIALS CAUTIOUSLY RECOVERS 34 POINTS TO 10344

MOHAMED EL-ERIAN – PIMCO, CEO
Market Outlook & Dubai Debt Situation (watch it here)

November 30 (Monday) – Markets in Asia rallied strong rebounding from the bloodletting of the pending debt defaults from Dubai World, but European markets did not follow suit and were weak coming into US trading. The DOW INDUSTRIALS opened on a soft downtick and quickly gained enough traction to rally up 55 points. Finding no momentum sellers took over and all gains were lost as the market fell to a minus 45. Like an old style give-n-go stocks rallied late when some of the Dubai debt situation was clarified and buyers pushed the market up to close with modest gains. The session was lackluster though breadth managed to work itself positive with the NYSE Advance/Decline Line holding onto 500 more gainers than losers. NASDAQ crept higher by 6 points to 2144. The DOLLAR flipped around the unchanged level all day but closed down a few ticks. GOLD started out by losing over $10 but reversed and closed up by $2 to $1180. OIL was strong gaining $1.23 a barrel to $77.28. Today was much ado about nothing.

There are a series of economic reports coming out Tuesday that will impact market psychology. Get ready for Motor Vehicle Sales, ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending & Pending Home Sales. The rest of the week is heavy on economic data which will go a long ways to determining if there really is something to crow about for the economic situation. I suspect the stock market will struggle in an effort to rally tomorrow as money managers move to secure gains, especially after performance from the prior 2 calendar years.

CLIMATEGATE:Cult of Warm-Mongers Want to Defraud the World’s Wealth

Excellent Article by Michael Barone: Global Warming Consensus: Garbage In, Garbage Out

(It looks like Al Gore was right after all, the debate is over - there is NO global warming!)

“But that consensus was based in large part on CRU data that was, to take the charitable explanation, "complete rubbish" or, to take the more dire view, the product of deliberate fraud.

Quite possibly the CRU e-mailers were sincere in their belief that they were saving the planet. Like Al Gore, they wanted to convince the world's elites that the time for argument is over, the scientific consensus is clear and those who disagree can be dismissed as cranks (and should be disqualified from receiving research grants). If they had to cut a few corners, well, you have to break eggs to make an omelette.”

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2009-11-29 (Sunday Evening Update)

NOVEMBER MARKET MANIA

DOW FOLLOWS WORLD MARKETS DECLINING 154 POINTS TO 10309

MARK STEYN – Syndicated Columnist
Cooking the Books on Climate (read it here) - honest-smart-funny

November 29 (Sunday) – The pre-holiday market was true to historical form, producing an uptick for equities. However something happened over the Thanksgiving period to upset markets worldwide. Dubai World, the great builder of paradises in the desert said they will default on many billions of debt coming due. No doubt a bail out of sorts is coming (story). The NIKKEI which is already in a declining phase continued sharply lower and is now off 13% from its August high (this chart compares Nikkei to DOW). The US stock market played catch-up to falling world markets after having Thanksgiving off and the DOW slid 1.5% while broader averages were hit a little harder. After the big opening gap-down, prices stabilized and a recovery was attempted midway during the holiday shortened Friday session. Sellers who paused midday were there to unload more shares in the final 15 minutes and the market faded again closing near the midpoint of the session trading range. Breadth was very poor on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line with a net negative ratio of 6-to-1. NASDAQ fell 37 points to 2138. The DOLLAR was modestly higher as investors seeking refuge once again bought into the greenback. GOLD could not extend its 9-day streak of gains and was getting hammered by $50 until managing a sharp late recovery to lose only $15 to $1177. OIL was also under severe selling pressure though it did come up off its trading lows to end the day off $1.91 a barrel to $76.05.

THE NEXT SHOE? - Is this the start of the commercial real estate debacle, the proverbial ‘other shoe’ that has been expected to drop since markets collapsed? Or will bankers and the wealthy Abu Dhabi move to securitize and restructure enough debt to produce a one-off event that the stock markets can absorb. Everyone knows the stock market rally is becoming tenuous with each rally higher, especially given that volume trends are anemic. It would not take much for a ‘get-me-out’ mentality to reappear given that the psychological impact from crashing markets and financial crisis still linger in the recesses of investor’s minds.

Monday will be an interesting day - all eyes will be on markets in Asia and Europe to see if there is lasting impact from the Dubai World debt bomb. Another point of interest will be reaction to how ‘Black Friday’ retail sales measured up. On the economic reports front, only the Chicago PMI is slated for release, a widely watched monthly survey of business conditions in the Chicago area. I’ve been talking about how the stock market has once again become a momentum game of musical chairs. No doubt there will be a major push to revive the market after Friday’s mini heart attack, but is there enough to really keep the big long rally going? Friday’s decline happened on very little volume, obviously a distortion related to the half-session. What do you think will happen if more debt troubles surface and investors start reliving the nightmares of crisis’s past? There just aren’t going to be enough chairs. The late great Jim Morrison of The Doors wrote these brilliant lyrics: ‘When the music’s over, turn out the lights.’ (play 11 minute version of this great classic).

Excellent Article by John Nolte: Objective Journalism: Michael Gerson Defends A Profession That No Longer Exists

“On the other hand, the Washington Post, New York Times, Newsweek, Time, CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS and the like, have spent years making jerks out of us – lying to our faces.”

CLIMATE-GATE: When will the NY Times stop lying and covering-up? They got conned (no, they were just promoting the hoax as a true partisan liberal publication). The world got conned. It's over. The debate is over. Partisan Progressives/Liberal Media is dead. Global warming is a giant political hoax. Obama, Pelosi, Kerry, Reid, Boxer, Waxman, Markey and many other Democrat Progressives/Liberals want to transfer trillions of American wealth to countries around the world in the name of fake science. We must NOT re-elect these cons! Preserve America - vote against the Global Warm-Mongers in 2010.

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2009-11-24 (Tuesday Evening Update)

NOVEMBER MARKET MANIA MAYHEM

DOW INDUSTRIALS BEGRUDGINGLY GIVE UP 17 POINTS TO 10433

RIC MISHKIN (Former Fed Governor) – CNBC INTERVIEW
Monitoring the Fed (watch it here)

November 24 (Tuesday) – Stocks opened lower today and could not fight through the bevy of economic reports to turn things higher. However, the market did close well off its worst levels, helped out by an uptick in Consumer Confidence. Volume, a real technical concern about the sustainability of the rising market, was light again today. The Volatility Index (VIX) is back down near its 1-year low, a sign that complacency has permeated the markets. And of course, there are still many unresolved negative divergences that were created when the DOW made a new recovery high but was confirmed by no other major indexes. The NIKKEI fell again last night, now down 11% from its recovery high. Breadth was negative on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line by roughly 250 traded issues. NASDAQ fell 6 points to 2169. The DOLLAR was little changed, mildly lower. GOLD climbed $3 to $1167. OIL which lost momentum yesterday continued lower today off about $1.50 a barrel to $76.10. Wednesday delivers the Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income, New Home Sales and an early release of the dreaded weekly Jobless Claims numbers. With Thursday off and a half day Friday, investors will be hoping to find a spark to push stocks higher in to the holiday. Sorry for sounding like a broken record but the outlook for stocks does not look favorable to me. Have a wonderful turkey and give Thanks for your blessings and do something to help someone in need. See you Sunday!

Climategate – Message to Al Gore: You Lied.

Global Warming - Exposed As Criminal Fraud

Excellent Article: The Fix Is In

DUE TO HOLIDAY SCHEDULE THERE WILL NO BLOG on WEDNESDAY or THURSDAY
NEXT BLOG UPDATE is Sunday Evening

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2009-11-23 (Monday Evening Update)

NOVEMBER MARKET MANIA MAYHEM

INDUSTRIALS SPARK SHARP RALLY ADDING 132 POINTS TO 10450

PETER CARDILLO (Avalon Partners) – CNBC INTERVIEW
Inflation Coming (watch it here)

November 23 (Monday) – Stocks began this short holiday week on a solid uptick (market closed Thursday & half day Friday). Futures pointed the way higher and the DOW INDUSTRIALS were up 100 points fairly quick. The Existing Home Sales report came in with strong results and so with no serious sellers in sight the market ran up another 70 points before stalling out. Though well off the daily high, the 1.3% gain was a great session and broader indices actually reflected slightly better performance. Breadth was good as market internals based on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line showed a net positive ratio by almost 4-to-1. NASDAQ regained 30 points to 2176. The DOLLAR which had enjoyed a few days of rally came under pressure all day long. GOLD was very strong and at one point was up nearly $25 though the final print showed that gain cut nearly in half closing at $1165. OIL started out really strong but could not sustain the move and ended the day higher by a few pennies a barrel at $77.56.

The next 2 days before we enjoy our Thanksgiving, will see an onslaught of new economic data. On Tuesday we’ll get GDP, Case-Shiller Home Price Index and Consumer Confidence. Wednesday will bring the Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income, New Home Sales and a special bonus a 1-day early release of the dreaded weekly Jobless Claims numbers.

VOLUME continues to be disappointingly light. As stocks move up, the amount of volume that will be required to sustain an event that triggers sellers increases. This means that while many continue to ride the equities wave higher, the risk/reward ratio continues deteriorating. Note how in the DIA (6/mo chart) the volume is trending lower as price has trended higher. Basically, this suggests that there are a bunch of momentum players and day-traders riding the market higher. These are the types who run for the exits at the first sign of trouble.

Keep America strong! – Speak out against government corruption! – Keep Liberty and Freedom in your sights!

Reject the Progressive / Liberal Agenda. Reject Obama,Pelosi,Reid,Schumer,Soros,Podesta,Stern,Boxer,Dodd,Waters,Nadler,Wasserman-Schulz.

Reject SEIU, MOVE-ON-CON-JOB, ACORN, TIDES FOUNDATION. Reject Obamacare. Reject Fake-Science Global Warning & Cap&Fraud.

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2009-11-22 (Sunday Evening Update)

NOVEMBER MARKET MANIA MAYHEM

INDUSTRIALS END WEEK IN A 3-DAY SLIDE DOWN 14 POINTS TO 10318

CLIVE CORCORAN (Technical Analyst w/ Tradewithform.com) – CNBC INTERVIEW
Nikkei Looks Bearish (watch it here)

November 22 (Sunday) – The stock market declined for the third time in 3 days, though not by much. Breadth was weak and most averages representing the broader marketplace were off by more than the DOW INDUSTRIALS. Most of the second and third tier indexes are trading below significant moving averages, indicating that the internal deterioration we’d been talking about for a few weeks is taking its toll and becoming more evident as negative divergences. Market internals were weak again as the NYSE Advance/Decline Line closed weak with nearly 500 more losers than winners. NASDAQ also finished lower declining 10 points to 2146. The DOLLAR kept its rally alive today as economic recovery appears more elusive to investors / earlier in the week a new report said mortgage delinquencies rose to a new record high in the 3^rd quarter. GOLD added $6 closing at $1150. OIL continued sliding losing another ¾ of a dollar closing at $76.72. The only economic report slated for Monday is the Existing Home Sales.

In Japan, the NIKKEI 225 has now declined over 10% from its recovery high in August. The Japanese market was able to resurrect itself and climb back above the 10000 mark well before the DOW INDUSTRIALS did. Could Japan’s stock market now be leading the way lower with the US not far behind? Here are comparative charts: (6/mos) & (1/yr). Watch clip (above) of Clive Corcoran’s technical analysis of the NIKKEI.

GOLD closed higher Friday despite strength in the US currency. The precious metal continues to separate itself from the locked inverse relationship that had seemed to control price movement for so long. The attractiveness of the yellow metal serves as an investment hedge against BOTH deflation and inflation. It also represents a reserve of value against ALL currencies, which is contributing to the complete independence of it as an investment. My very long standing target has been $1200 an ounce. I may have to revisit that target soon!

GLOBAL WARMING FRAUD USED AS COVER FOR MASSIVE TAX INCREASES

Cap&Trade. Cap&Tax. Cap&Con. Cap&Fraud. Cap&Gore. Call it what you like, this is now the reason over a trillion dollars in new taxes will be heaped upon all Americans and businesses large and small – all in the name of a gigantic new Ponzi Scheme fraud – Climate Change/Global Warming. The fraud has now been exposed: Global Warming is a hoax – actually, an unethical scheme designed to shape a worldwide political agenda for the Progressive movement. Recently uncovered emails from Hadley, CRU, Britain’s largest climate institute and proponent of global warming revealed this shocking discovery:

*** I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (i.e.; from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith's to hide the decline. Mike's series got the annual land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999 for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998. ***

Wow! Copenhagen be damned, it is becoming ever clearer that the climate change community, champions of global warming have been perpetrating a massive fraud on the world in the name of political power and money. Progressive Liberals once again stand atop a platform that is having its legs sawed off. Look at the moron in this picture holding up a sign “Stop Climate Change” – another useful idiot being led around by the manipulative Progressive group MOVEON-CON-JOB. To illustrate the extent of mental imbalance that embraced this ‘feel-good’ movement which is a cover for the Progressive/Liberalism movement to gain power and spread their socialistic ideology. Activist groups promoting the illusion of global warming attracted Hollywood liberals such as actress Susan Sarandon who promoted her robotic followers to engage in civil disobedience for this faux science. Many of our representatives in Washington have dedicated much of their public service to promoting, funding and politicizing this fake concept of global warming. Chief among them is arrogant elitist California Senator Barbara Boxer. Wake up people. Wake up America. Wake up California. 2010 is coming. It is time to launch The Boxer Rebellion.

Published in American Thinker (Nov.22) – (Scientific Scandal Rocks Climate Change Promoters)

Published in American Thinker (Nov.21) – (The Evidence of Climate Fraud)

Published in an Investor’s Business Daily (Nov.20) editorial - (The Day Global Warming Stood Still)

Read the 3 articles above and that should erase any notion you have that global warming is a legitimate science. There can be no question it is nothing more than a trumped-up narrative to attract a political following to push ‘wealth-redistribution’ agendas. Progressives use junk science as just one strategy to gain power and pursue their fervent belief that they have a monopoly on intellect and hold a view that the rest of ‘idiots’ require their guidance for world resource management. They are a danger to the United States and every day more Americans are waking up to their deceptions. For as intellectually superior they naively believe themselves to be – they are equally dimwitted and self-delusional.

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2009-11-19 (Thursday Evening Update)

NOVEMBER MARKET MANIA MAYHEM

DOW INDUSTRIALS UNDER PRESSURE SINKING 93 POINTS TO 10332

CARTER WORTH (Oppenheimer Chief Market Technician) – CNBC INTERVIEW
(watch it here)

November 19 (Thursday) – The two-steps forward one-step back market jig continues. Weekly Jobless Claims were still above 500K and other economic reports are casting doubt on any reasonable expectation for a lasting recovery, or a recovery at all. Reports that the pork-stimulus package have created or saved jobs have turned out to be misleading, incorrect and suspect. Government may be attempting to be transparent – but they cannot conceal their incompetence! Market internals were weak again as the NYSE Advance/Decline Line closed negative by a 5-to-1 ratio. NASDAQ dropped 36 points to 2156. The DOLLAR was strong today and largely to blame for the havoc in all other markets. GOLD was trading lower for most of the session but managed a late steady recovery to nudge into the plus zone closing at $1144. OIL was under pressure today and could not regain much footing losing over $2 a barrel to $77.45.

ECONOMIC ROUNDTABLE ON CNBC featuring LARRY LINDSEY

Mike Jackson, CEO of AutoNation, and Larry Lindsey, CEO of the Lindsey Group, share their outlooks on the economy. (watch here)

Federal Reserve officials downplayed the consequences of the falling dollar, underscoring that deflation is still a threat. Jim Rickards, of Market Intelligence; Mike Jackson, of AutoNation; and Larry Lindsey, of the Lindsey Group, share their insight. (watch here)

CNBC's Steve Liesman and Larry Lindsey, of the Lindsey Group, share their economic insight. (watch here)

With no economic reports scheduled for Friday, the stock market will be on its own in terms of direction. There’s a tug-o-war right now as to the ability of market momentum to push higher versus the internal deterioration and multiple negative divergences that are undermining the integrity of the rally. I am in the latter group of opinion. There is a game of musical chairs going on right now and volume is not strong enough to absorb a sudden strong spate of selling should one be triggered. There are just not enough seats. Fortunately, having already reduced portfolios substantially, we don’t require any seats. The one sector we are holding strong on is precious metals, which have outperformed nicely and provide a hedge against a variety of serious market risks.

**ALWAYS REMEMBER! - As you know - predicting EXACT tops and bottoms is impossible - it is also not useful becasue most people can't react once the market starts falling - my theory is that it's ALWAYS a better strategy to SELL INTO EUPHORIC STRENGTH - and miss whatever upward continuation occurs - the reason for this is that stocks ALWAYS fall faster than they rise - with that said - I have advised actively liquidating most stock holdings (we never get completely out of market even when Bearish as I am now) - this relates to various 'strategic' and 'overall money management' techniques - We are very disciplined. Have a great weekend!

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2009-11-15 (Monday Evening Update)

NOVEMBER MARKET MANIA MAYHEM

NEW RECOVERY HIGH AS INDUSTRIALS SURGE BY 136 POINTS TO 10407

MEREDITH WHITNEY – CNBC INTERVIEW
(watch it here)

November 16 (Monday) – This week launched with another big rally driving the stock market to a new recovery high. Broader index were up more than the DOW. Decent Retail Sales numbers were uplifting and the market shrugged off the disappointing decline in the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The Bernanke presentation caused a brief hesitation as market participants wondered if he’d say anything to dislodge the downtrend in the US currency market. Since most of his commentary stressed economic risks as a real overhanging threat, investors took heart that no change in currency trends and no movement on interest rates would be coming anytime soon. Market internals improved over last week with the NYSE Advance/Decline Line net positive by a 5-to-1 ratio. NASDAQ added 30 points to 2197. The DOLLAR continued lower and spurred all of the counter-currency asset plays, especially commodities. GOLD continues to gather upward momentum pushing higher by another $21 to a new all-time high at $1119. OIL also was strong added about $2.50 to $78.90.

Producer Prices & Industrial Production reports will be released on Tuesday. Stocks are now quite overbought short-term. But as I indicated yesterday, seasonal patterns are now favorable for the stock market, however, I am certainly not endorsing increasing equity exposure here. My view is that market risk is flashing high risk.

The Meredith Whitney interview (link in upper headlines) on CNBC is well worth watching. Her short term positive outlook for equities has changed. I’m taking a long midweek break and will return on Thursday evening.

THERE WILL NO BLOG on TUESDAY or WEDNESDAY
NEXT BLOG UPDATE is THURSDAY Evening

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2009-11-15 (Sunday Evening Update)

NOVEMBER MARKET MANIA MAYHEM

DOW INDUSTRIALS SCOOT HIGHER BY 73 POINTS TO 10270

November 15 (Sunday) – Counting Friday’s market rally the prime stock market average has now moved higher in 7 of the last 8 trading sessions. This rally came in the face of a big disappointment in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index which fell to 66, well below expectations. Breadth was decent with the NYSE Advance/Decline Line net positive by nearly a 3-to-1 ratio. NASDAQ climbed 18 points to 2167. The DOLLAR reversed the one day of good gains and closed steadily lower. GOLD was flying again advancing by $16 to close at $1119. OIL followed through on recent weakness to the downside and lost .60 to $76.34.

There is no question that market internals have deteriorated and the volume trends are hugely disappointing. But now seasonal patterns have turned favorable. However seasonal patterns have not been useful this year as market patterns have not behaved according to tradition. Perhaps to be expected given the extraordinary circumstances that crashed the market to such great depths. As is so often the case, a market moving in one direction tends to stay in that direction until inertia runs its course or a wall is hit. Monday kicks off as a big one for economic reports with Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing Survey & Business Inventories reports. Loews(LOW) will release their quarterly financial statements tomorrow. The economy remain sluggish and likely to remain so given that White House policies being pushed the hardest are anti-growth, anti-jobs and demonstrate a lack of understanding and lack of focus as to what should be the #1 priority in America today.

Despite the glaring weakness in volume which declined from already poor levels as last week’s rally pushed higher and despite the many technical negative divergences and non-confirmations, the stock market has failed to succumb to these vulnerable factors. I’ve now reduced my stock portfolio to just a few skeleton holdings and those are hedged by bearish market plays. The one sector I’ve continued to hold as overweight, precious metals, have been market leaders. My forecast for GOLD to $1200 is within arrow-shot.

Keep America strong! – Speak out against government corruption! – Keep Liberty and Freedom in your sights!

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2009-11-12 (Thursday Evening Update)

NOVEMBER MARKET MANIA MAYHEM